Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 4

RoboForex Receives Best Introducing Broker Programme Award

RoboForex, which provides brokerage services for trading in global financial markets, has won the “Best Introducing Broker Programme – LatAM” at the prestigious Global Forex Awards – Retail 2024.

This accolade recognises the success of the RoboForex Infinity program, an innovative evolution of the Company’s partner programs launched in February 2024. Infinity offers RoboForex partners up to 85% of the average spread from clients’ closed positions and 20% of daily swaps on open client positions. The program aims to expand the Company’s partner network by providing robust opportunities for partners to maximise their earnings while extending their business reach. The initiative has had a particularly significant impact in Latin America, where it garnered widespread support from traders during the official voting process for the Global Forex Awards.

Now in its sixth year, the Global Forex Awards – Retail celebrates excellence in trading and investment by recognising companies that excel in innovation, technology, and customer service. Winners are determined through open voting across 59 categories covering global and regional markets, including Africa, Asia, Europe, LatAm, and the Middle East.

“For six years, we have led the way in highlighting those forex brokers making the greatest strides globally, both in technology and customer service,” explains Mike Boydell, Director of Holiston Media. “This year has been the biggest Global Forex Awards – Retail to date, and winning one of these coveted awards helps put any business on the map in this highly competitive industry.”

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/7. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 Nov

The hawkish attitude of FOMC representatives puts pressure on stock indices. Oil is growing amid escalation in Eastern Europe

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.70% (-1.39% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 1.23% (for the week -2.30%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was down 2.40% (-3.67% for the week). Wall Street saw a sharp decline on Friday as investors evaluated Fed Chair Powell’s remarks. Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish stance on interest rates pressured the market as he emphasized the strength of the economy, a robust labor market, and steady inflation, which led to lower expectations for a rate cut. The Fed’s hawkish comments lowered the odds of a Fed rate cut next month to 55% from 82% a day earlier. US retail sales in October exceeded estimates, rising by 0.4%. The technology sector suffered significant losses, with major companies such as Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet falling by more than 2%. The pharmaceutical sector also came under pressure due to news that Trump may nominate vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Department of Health and Human Services.

The Dollar Index held near 106.6 on Monday, trading near two-year highs amid expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and bets on US economic growth under a Trump presidency. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Central Bank has no immediate plans to cut rates, citing the strength of the economy, a stable labor market, and continued inflationary pressures. Stronger-than-expected reports on retail sales and inflation supported hawkish views on Fed policy. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the December 17–18 FOMC meeting as 55%.

Pfizer (PFE) shares are down more than 3% after Wolfe Research initiated coverage on the stock with an “underperform” recommendation and a $25 price target. Palantir (PLTR) is up more than 9%, leading gains in S&P 500 stocks after the company said its listing on the New York Stock Exchange will close at the close of trading on November 25, with trading on the Nasdaq beginning the following day.

Equity markets in Europe were declining on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.27% (week ended -0.91%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.58% (week ended -1.70%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.97% (week ended -0.03%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.09% (week ended -0.11%) on Friday. The European Commission’s Fall 2024 estimates call for the Eurozone economy to grow by 0.8% this year, the same as the previous Spring prognosis. Growth estimates for 2025 have been revised downward to 1.3% from 1.4%, and for 2026, the euro area economy is predicted to grow by 1.6%. As for inflation, despite a small rise in October, mainly driven by energy prices, core inflation in the Eurozone will more than halve to 2.4% in 2024 from 5.4% in 2023 and then gradually decline to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $67 a barrel on Monday, pausing a recent decline, as the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine raised concerns about possible supply disruptions. Over the weekend, Russia launched its largest airstrike on Ukraine in nearly three months, further undermining an already crippled energy system. Meanwhile, concerns about weakening demand in China, the world’s largest oil importer, contributed to the bearish market sentiment. In addition, downward pressure on prices is exerted by the strengthening of the US dollar, supported by expectations of a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Asian markets were mostly declining last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.96%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 2.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 4.11%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.16%.

The offshore yuan weakened to 7.24 per dollar, back to its lowest level in more than three months, as investors await a decision on China’s marginal lending rate this week. Markets expect the People’s Bank of China to keep the one-year and five-year LPR rates at 3.1 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively. Last week, investors reacted to mixed economic data indicating that Beijing’s stimulus measures may not yet be yielding the expected results.

The Australian dollar stabilized above $0.645 on Monday, supported by a hawkish view on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. Last week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that interest rates are quite restrictive and will remain at current levels until the Central Bank is confident about the inflation outlook. Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes of the latest RBA meeting this week for further guidance on the Central Bank’s policy direction.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,870.62 −78.55 (−1.32%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,444.99 −305.87 (−0.70%)

DAX (DE40) 19,210.81 −52.89 (−0.27%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,063.61 −7.58 (−0.094%)

USD Index 106.74 +0.05 (+0.05%)

News feed for: 2024.11.18

Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 03:05 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Trade Balance at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

18 Nov

AUD/USD Stabilises Amid RBA’s Hawkish Outlook

By RoboForex Analytical Department

AUD/USD is showing signs of stabilisation near 0.6465, marking its second consecutive session of attempts to recover.

The Australian dollar finds some support from the hawkish comments made by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock. Bullock stated that interest rates are restrictive and will remain so until the RBA is fully assured of the inflation outlook.

Investors are keenly awaiting the publication of the minutes from the last RBA meeting, which is expected this week. The minutes will provide deeper insights into the RBA’s future policy actions.

Additionally, upcoming releases on November’s industrial and services sector data could further influence the Australian dollar’s trajectory.

Despite these supportive factors, AUD/USD remains near three-month lows, pressured by a strengthening US dollar. The US dollar has benefited from expectations that the Federal Reserve might opt for a more minor rate cut amid robust economic forecasts under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart of AUD/USD, the market has formed a broad consolidation range around the 0.6565 level. Currently, the market has broken through the lower boundary of this range. Today, a narrower consolidation range has developed around the 0.6464 level. It is relevant to consider the probability of a downward breakout from this range, which could lead to a further downward movement towards the 0.6333 level, with the potential for the trend to continue to 0.6233, the local target. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 AUD/USD chart, the market continues to form a narrow consolidation range around 0.6464. In case of a downside breakout, we anticipate the second half of the downward wave continuing, targeting 0.6333. Conversely, a corrective move towards 0.6500 is possible if the market breaks upwards. The downward trend is expected to extend towards 0.6233 in the longer term. Technically, this scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line positioned below the 80 mark and pointing down towards 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Nov

Currency Speculators cut US Dollar Index bets despite rising price

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Large Speculator bets led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (14,216 contracts) with the British Pound (10,966 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (4,948 contracts) also pulling out a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-20,735 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-10,902 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-7,160 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,461 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,713 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,407 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-1,181 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-341 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators cut US Dollar Index bets despite rising price

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decrease in the speculative bets for the US Dollar Index market despite the rising Dollar Index price.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions fell this week for the second straight week and have now declined for seven out of the past nine weeks. The nine-week decrease amounts to a total of -22,522 contracts being taken off the speculator position. This weakness has now taken the US Dollar Index spec standing, currently at -2,312 contracts, to the lowest level since March 9th of 2021, a distance of 192 weeks ago.

The US Dollar Index speculator positioning is currently in stark contrast with the pricing action of the USD at the moment. The Dollar Index or DX futures prices have been on a strong uptrend with gains in six out of the past seven weeks. The DX has gone from a price of approximately 100.20 at the end of September to this week’s close at 106.61 on Friday. This is a strong rise of over 6 percent in just seven weeks.

Speculators, especially in currencies, usually act as trend-followers and are typically buying prices that are on the rise (or selling prices on the decline) but have not been participating in this move on a net basis.

One way for this situation to resolve itself can be with the speculators closing out their shorts and switching to longs which could add to the Dollar’s strength, and potentially push the USD Index through the resistance area of 106.50-107.00. Prices recently were stopped at this resistance level in October of 2023 and in April of 2024. Otherwise, prices could stall out here at this level again and head lower which would bring prices back in line with the current small bearish speculator positioning. One helpful clue will be if open interest (OI) starts to rise as currently OI is relatively low at just approximately 33 percent of the 3-Year range. An increase in open interest is needed to bring more fuel to the market and keep a trend going.

The US Federal Reserve also has their next central bank interest rate meeting on December 18th and the currently, there is a 62 percent probability for a 25 basis point rate cut and a 38 percent probability for a rate hold at the current level of 4.5-4.75 percent, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. The coming weeks and into the new year will likely be pivotal in terms of where the Dollar heads to next.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (97 percent) leads the currency markets this week. The British Pound (61 percent), the Japanese Yen (48 percent), the Brazilian Real (45 percent) and the Mexican Peso (41 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the Canadian Dollar (6 percent), Bitcoin (12 percent), the Euro (18 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.1 percent)
EuroFX (18.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (12.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (61.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (56.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (47.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (56.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (34.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (40.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (97.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (98.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (18.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (41.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (46.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (44.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (40.2 percent)
Bitcoin (12.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (19.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (29 percent) and the Australian Dollar (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-50 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-49 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (-26 percent) and the Euro (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-5.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.8 percent)
EuroFX (-26.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-39.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-16.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-18.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-48.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-44.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-19.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-21.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-50.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-49.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (30.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-26.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-13.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (9.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (29.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (23.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-2.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	21.1	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.5	18.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-2,312	1,100	1,212
– Gross Longs:	22,958	7,778	4,443
– Gross Shorts:	25,270	6,678	3,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	96.2	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	-0.9	30.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	57.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	60.4	8.3
– Net Position:	-7,437	-18,274	25,711
– Gross Longs:	160,003	366,805	78,432
– Gross Shorts:	167,440	385,079	52,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	81.6	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	28.0	-28.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 56,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.5	25.7	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	53.6	12.4
– Net Position:	56,050	-59,148	3,098
– Gross Longs:	119,992	54,642	29,405
– Gross Shorts:	63,942	113,790	26,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	37.8	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	20.8	-30.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -64,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -20,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	59.7	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.0	31.7	16.8
– Net Position:	-64,902	72,173	-7,271
– Gross Longs:	64,038	153,738	35,915
– Gross Shorts:	128,940	81,565	43,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	55.0	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-48.6	51.1	-41.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -32,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	80.2	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.6	24.0	27.0
– Net Position:	-32,694	44,011	-11,317
– Gross Longs:	5,365	62,851	9,858
– Gross Shorts:	38,059	18,840	21,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	71.2	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	36.3	-57.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -182,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -175,229 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	82.7	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.7	26.8	11.0
– Net Position:	-182,389	191,332	-8,943
– Gross Longs:	22,011	283,278	28,728
– Gross Shorts:	204,400	91,946	37,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	94.9	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.4	53.9	-55.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 29,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.6	34.6	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	53.6	13.8
– Net Position:	29,795	-32,634	2,839
– Gross Longs:	83,555	59,537	26,542
– Gross Shorts:	53,760	92,171	23,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.4	10.5	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	0.7	-42.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	58.7	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.8	38.4	7.3
– Net Position:	-11,660	13,012	-1,352
– Gross Longs:	22,871	37,696	3,317
– Gross Shorts:	34,531	24,684	4,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	79.4	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	33.7	-61.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,902 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	45.9	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	57.0	4.5
– Net Position:	20,193	-16,321	-3,872
– Gross Longs:	73,269	67,882	2,818
– Gross Shorts:	53,076	84,203	6,690
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	61.1	1.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	4.0	-13.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	33.5	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.5	23.3	3.2
– Net Position:	-7,577	7,540	37
– Gross Longs:	39,465	24,800	2,378
– Gross Shorts:	47,042	17,260	2,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	56.3	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-27.5	-7.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	4.7	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.8	1.7	2.5
– Net Position:	-1,798	1,151	647
– Gross Longs:	30,887	1,792	1,604
– Gross Shorts:	32,685	641	957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	92.1	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-7.5	23.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover lower speculator contracts.

Leading markets with declines in speculator bets were Gold (-18,878 contracts) with Platinum (-8,808 contracts), Silver (-5,704 contracts), Copper (-2,825 contracts), Palladium (-2,646 contracts) and Steel (-394 contracts) also showing lower contracts for the week.

The metals markets have now seen multiple down weeks in a row with Copper recording six straight weeks of declines while Gold and Silver have fallen for three straight weeks of declines. Steel, Palladium and Platinum have also had two straight weeks of falling contracts as well. Despite the recent weakness, the metals markets are still in strong positions compared to their 3-Year ranges as all the markets have at least a 50 percent strength score or, in other words, the speculator positions are in the top half of their 3-Year ranges. Steel, Silver and Gold are in the top 70 percent of their ranges at the moment.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (93 percent) and Silver (76 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (70 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Copper (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score was Palladium (56 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (70.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (77.2 percent)
Silver (76.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.6 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.3 percent)
Platinum (63.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (84.6 percent)
Palladium (55.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (75.1 percent)
Steel (93.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.7 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (11 percent) and Steel (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-21 percent) and Platinum (-19 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-24.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-22.8 percent)
Silver (-11.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.2 percent)
Copper (-20.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.8 percent)
Platinum (-18.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (11.0 percent)
Palladium (11.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (22.5 percent)
Steel (7.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 236,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 255,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.0	14.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	63.6	5.2
– Net Position:	236,451	-265,582	29,131
– Gross Longs:	316,225	75,347	56,838
– Gross Shorts:	79,774	340,929	27,707
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.0	26.7	76.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	22.3	5.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	22.5	21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	68.2	7.7
– Net Position:	47,642	-67,407	19,765
– Gross Longs:	68,951	33,197	31,167
– Gross Shorts:	21,309	100,604	11,402
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	19.9	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	13.1	-12.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	33.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	46.5	4.6
– Net Position:	20,845	-30,413	9,568
– Gross Longs:	93,941	77,575	20,369
– Gross Shorts:	73,096	107,988	10,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	44.2	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.8	17.6	11.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.9	18.9	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	50.9	3.6
– Net Position:	20,233	-28,419	8,186
– Gross Longs:	53,283	16,825	11,361
– Gross Shorts:	33,050	45,244	3,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.8	29.2	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	11.9	40.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,313 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	48.4	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.6	20.3	7.3
– Net Position:	-6,313	5,183	1,130
– Gross Longs:	4,667	8,919	2,480
– Gross Shorts:	10,980	3,736	1,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	41.0	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-16.5	36.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	71.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	68.2	0.7
– Net Position:	-808	727	81
– Gross Longs:	6,257	18,343	256
– Gross Shorts:	7,065	17,616	175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	7.4	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-6.3	-17.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

17 Nov

COT Bonds Charts: Large Speculator bets led by 2-Year & Ultra Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (62,488 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (23,124 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (13,378 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (2,469 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-145,254 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-101,801 contracts), the Fed Funds (-21,463 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-16,352 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-4,017 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (99 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (69 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (55.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (59.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (4.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (30.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (31.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (68.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (70.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (99.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (88.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (35.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (31.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (47.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (55.4 percent)

10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (31 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Fed Funds (-45 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-43 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-18 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-44.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-35.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-15.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-27.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-18.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-12.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-17.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-23.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (19.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (40.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (10.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (14.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-1.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-43.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-40.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	62.8	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	62.4	2.6
– Net Position:	2,437	6,593	-9,030
– Gross Longs:	141,580	990,051	31,284
– Gross Shorts:	139,143	983,458	40,314
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.1	43.2	68.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.9	43.2	10.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -239,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -145,254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	58.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	56.4	0.4
– Net Position:	-239,881	248,953	-9,072
– Gross Longs:	1,441,064	6,328,027	37,413
– Gross Shorts:	1,680,945	6,079,074	46,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	52.5	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.1	44.0	-9.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -135,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	65.0	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	53.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-135,658	135,542	116
– Gross Longs:	146,041	764,353	207
– Gross Shorts:	281,699	628,811	91
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	64.8	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-14.7	6.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,423,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 62,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,486,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	79.0	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	51.7	2.4
– Net Position:	-1,423,871	1,260,796	163,075
– Gross Longs:	551,754	3,651,061	274,880
– Gross Shorts:	1,975,625	2,390,265	111,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.0	94.6	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	20.3	-9.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,869,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -101,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,767,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	57.8	4.5
– Net Position:	-1,869,210	1,740,989	128,221
– Gross Longs:	441,144	5,459,346	415,574
– Gross Shorts:	2,310,354	3,718,357	287,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	77.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	28.0	-16.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -815,801 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -818,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	78.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	62.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-815,801	752,029	63,772
– Gross Longs:	419,160	3,608,341	443,088
– Gross Shorts:	1,234,961	2,856,312	379,316
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	70.8	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.0	-29.2	-19.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -156,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -140,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	74.2	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	63.6	13.3
– Net Position:	-156,791	233,234	-76,443
– Gross Longs:	332,761	1,638,773	217,334
– Gross Shorts:	489,552	1,405,539	293,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	63.0	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	28.8	-8.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -41,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	63.7	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	64.5	7.2
– Net Position:	-41,768	-16,083	57,851
– Gross Longs:	425,158	1,230,934	197,990
– Gross Shorts:	466,926	1,247,017	140,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.9	23.5	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-1.3	-34.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -241,284 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 23,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -264,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	78.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	65.2	10.0
– Net Position:	-241,284	245,400	-4,116
– Gross Longs:	164,734	1,420,045	175,057
– Gross Shorts:	406,018	1,174,645	179,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.5	16.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	1.1	-34.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

16 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Large Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (74,998 contracts) with Soybean Oil (20,687 contracts), Soybeans (11,870 contracts), Live Cattle (5,941 contracts), Coffee (5,491 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,541 contracts), Cocoa (1,603 contracts) and Cotton (955 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-15,988 contracts), Sugar (-10,099 contracts) and with Soybean Meal (-1,818 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs, Soybean Oil & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent), Soybean Oil (95 percent) and Coffee (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (70 percent) and Corn (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (23 percent) and Sugar (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Soybeans (28 percent) and the Soybean Meal (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (56.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (46.9 percent)
Sugar (25.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (29.0 percent)
Coffee (92.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.3 percent)
Soybeans (28.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (94.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (32.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.3 percent)
Live Cattle (70.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (64.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (95.9 percent)
Cotton (22.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.0 percent)
Cocoa (49.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.4 percent)
Wheat (42.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (53.8 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (51 percent) and Live Cattle (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (26 percent) and Corn (24 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-23 percent) and Sugar (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (23.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.2 percent)
Sugar (-21.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.1 percent)
Coffee (0.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.4 percent)
Soybeans (-0.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (31.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-37.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-19.9 percent)
Live Cattle (34.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (46.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.2 percent)
Cotton (-0.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.6 percent)
Cocoa (-1.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.7 percent)
Wheat (-23.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 177,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 74,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	45.6	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	53.2	10.9
– Net Position:	177,646	-126,120	-51,526
– Gross Longs:	434,784	763,888	130,863
– Gross Shorts:	257,138	890,008	182,389
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	45.8	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-24.3	-2.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	50.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	61.5	5.9
– Net Position:	68,122	-93,064	24,942
– Gross Longs:	213,319	431,903	75,606
– Gross Shorts:	145,197	524,967	50,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	69.7	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	18.3	-3.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,977 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.8	38.7	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.4	73.6	2.8
– Net Position:	68,468	-71,568	3,100
– Gross Longs:	77,574	79,450	8,905
– Gross Shorts:	9,106	151,018	5,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.6	7.0	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	1.0	-26.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -77,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	57.7	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	46.5	7.8
– Net Position:	-77,113	96,357	-19,244
– Gross Longs:	161,342	497,249	48,231
– Gross Shorts:	238,455	400,892	67,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	72.5	62.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-1.1	20.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	46.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	65.8	4.1
– Net Position:	97,225	-110,883	13,658
– Gross Longs:	181,752	274,081	37,629
– Gross Shorts:	84,527	384,964	23,971
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.7	8.2	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.7	-27.6	34.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	45.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	51.6	5.7
– Net Position:	12,506	-36,537	24,031
– Gross Longs:	147,784	284,235	59,719
– Gross Shorts:	135,278	320,772	35,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	63.2	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.5	37.8	-17.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,941 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	33.4	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	50.9	13.8
– Net Position:	84,779	-60,663	-24,116
– Gross Longs:	152,817	115,140	23,645
– Gross Shorts:	68,038	175,803	47,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	48.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.4	-29.7	-28.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 75,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,441 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	28.5	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	48.3	9.1
– Net Position:	75,982	-67,843	-8,139
– Gross Longs:	165,266	98,205	23,318
– Gross Shorts:	89,284	166,048	31,457
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	50.7	-52.0	-16.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,441 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	48.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	43.6	6.0
– Net Position:	-11,486	11,808	-322
– Gross Longs:	63,281	122,036	14,854
– Gross Shorts:	74,767	110,228	15,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	78.0	14.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	2.6	-17.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 38,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,659 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	36.7	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	74.3	4.2
– Net Position:	38,262	-45,908	7,646
– Gross Longs:	51,893	44,940	12,752
– Gross Shorts:	13,631	90,848	5,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	46.0	77.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	-0.8	16.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	39.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	28.9	9.0
– Net Position:	-38,529	47,109	-8,580
– Gross Longs:	105,967	176,335	31,795
– Gross Shorts:	144,496	129,226	40,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	60.8	11.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	26.7	-15.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

16 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (17,352 contracts) with the VIX (12,245 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (735 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (288 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-88,439 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) and with the Russell-Mini (-398 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (92 percent) and the Russell-Mini (88 percent) led the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (83 percent) and S&P500-Mini (68 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (92.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (81.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (68.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (81.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (82.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (81.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (64.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (87.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (88.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (16.4 percent)

VIX tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (10 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (-10.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (22.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-5.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-4.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (0.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (0.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-8.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-9.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	39.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	38.9	7.8
– Net Position:	-4,423	2,263	2,160
– Gross Longs:	83,713	139,177	29,674
– Gross Shorts:	88,136	136,914	27,514
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	9.9	86.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-11.7	9.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -88,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	68.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	76.1	6.8
– Net Position:	25,001	-161,143	136,142
– Gross Longs:	360,987	1,540,339	288,150
– Gross Shorts:	335,986	1,701,482	152,008
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	17.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-9.2	21.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	49.0	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	68.9	14.0
– Net Position:	13,666	-17,645	3,979
– Gross Longs:	26,664	43,230	16,310
– Gross Shorts:	12,998	60,875	12,331
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	12.6	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	1.4	14.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	56.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	67.4	9.7
– Net Position:	16,380	-30,363	13,983
– Gross Longs:	71,007	156,585	40,901
– Gross Shorts:	54,627	186,948	26,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	19.2	81.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-3.7	5.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,394 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	72.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	78.3	3.6
– Net Position:	8,394	-30,429	22,035
– Gross Longs:	81,169	346,137	39,360
– Gross Shorts:	72,775	376,566	17,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.7	5.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	1.9	29.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	88.4	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	82.4	1.7
– Net Position:	-31,471	26,425	5,046
– Gross Longs:	37,792	393,527	12,545
– Gross Shorts:	69,263	367,102	7,499
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	63.6	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	4.1	-6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

16 Nov

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, Ultra T-Bonds, US Dollar & 5-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score or maximum of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 50.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 75,982 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,541 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is now at a 99.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 10.1 this week. The speculator position registered -241,284 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 23,124 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Australian Dollar speculator level resides at a 97.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 10.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 29,795 net contracts this week with a small dip of -1,181 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 94.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 25.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 97,225 net contracts this week with a boost of 20,687 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.0 this week.

The speculator position was -808 net contracts this week with a decline of -394 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,869,210 net contracts this week with a drop by -101,801 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week. The speculator position was -2,312 net contracts this week with a decrease by -2,407 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 4.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,423,871 net contracts this week with an increase of 62,488 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 6.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -50.4 this week. The speculator position was -182,389 net contracts this week with a weekly shortfall of -7,160 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

Finally, the E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level is at a 10.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.7 this week. The speculator position was -228 net contracts this week with a change of 575 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News

15 Nov

The Dollar Index strengthened on Powell’s comments. The Bank of Mexico cut the rate to 10.25%

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.47% on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.66%.

On Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell clarified that there was no need for an immediate rate cut, citing the economy’s strength, a robust labor market, and stable inflation. Powell’s comments echoed his colleagues, who favor a cautious approach to future rate cuts. As a consequence, markets have lost confidence in a December rate cut and now have a 58% chance of it happening, down from 80% before the speech. In addition, investors believe that the incoming Trump administration may push for higher trade tariffs, tax cuts, and higher budget deficits, which could lead to higher inflation and further limit the Fed’s ability to reduce borrowing costs.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is up more than 6%, topping the Dow Jones Industrials list, after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.14, above the consensus of $1.10, and saying it expects high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2025, above the consensus of 4%. Cisco Systems (CSCO) closed down more than 1% after estimating FY 2025 revenue of $55.3–56.3 billion, below the average consensus estimate of $55.88 billion.

The Bank of Mexico lowered its benchmark interest rate to 10.25% in November 2024, which was widely expected and in line with trends in major economies. The Central Bank eased monetary policy, noting improving trends in core inflation but remaining cautious due to risks of stagnant core inflation and potential currency depreciation. Overall inflation rose from 4.66% y/y in mid-September to 4.76% y/y in October due to a supply shock affecting non-core inflation, while core inflation eased to 3.8% y/y.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.32% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.29%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.51%. The report on the ECB’s October 16–17 meeting was seen as dovish as policymakers believe inflation continues to fall. There was broad agreement that incoming data from the September meeting had increased confidence in the ongoing disinflation process and that inflation would converge toward the medium-term target.

WTI crude oil prices fell to as low as $68 a barrel on Friday, driven by concerns that the global oil market may be moving into a state of oversupply. On Thursday, the IEA predicted an oil surplus next year, attributing it to slowing demand growth in China and rising global production. The agency also noted that the surplus could become even more pronounced if OPEC+ follows through on plans to restore previously halted production. Additional pressure on commodities such as oil is being exerted by the strengthening dollar, which has risen to a two-year high, making dollar-priced commodities less attractive. In addition, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, exceeding the expected increase of 1.9 million.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell below $2.9/MMBtu following the release of the EIA report on gas in storage. The data showed that US utilities added 42 billion cubic feet of natural gas to storage last week, slightly below the expected 43 Bcf. Gas in storage is now 6.1% above the seasonal norm. This is the fourth consecutive week of exceeding the seasonal norm, last seen in October 2022.

Silver prices stabilized near $30.30 an ounce on Friday but were still on track for a fourth straight weekly decline as a strengthening US dollar continued to weigh on the precious metal. The dollar’s rise was driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut following comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday. Powell said the central bank was in no hurry to cut rates, citing a strong economy, stable labor market, and steady inflation.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday with Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) down 0.48%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.99%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.96%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) positive 0.31%.

China’s retail sales rose to 4.8% y/y from 3.2% in September and hit the highest growth since February, helped by the week-long holiday and the latest shopping festival. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to a four-month low of 5.0%, according to the survey, and industrial production continued to rise, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The statistics agency also noted that confidence in the real estate market strengthened on the back of appropriate policies, leading to an increase in the number of transactions in the market and a move towards stabilization.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,949.17 −36.21 (−0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,750.86 −207.33 (−0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 19,263.70 +260.59 (+1.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,071.19 +40.86 (+0.51%)

USD Index 106.87 +0.39 (+0.36%)

News feed for: 2024.11.15

Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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