Archive for Financial News – Page 4

China’s deflationary scenario continues despite stimulus measures. Natural gas prices returned to growth

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) added 0.25%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.16%. and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) rose by 0.04%. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting showed that several officials favor a gradual reduction in interest rates throughout 2025. Nearly all Fed officials felt that there were increased upside risks to inflation due to recent stronger-than-expected inflation data and the likely impact of potential changes in trade and immigration policy. Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to support his proposed tariffs. This has boosted the US Dollar Index but has put pressure on all risk assets.

Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, data showed private-sector hiring and wage growth slowed in December. ADP’s national employment report showed an increase of 122,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 140,000. Weekly initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly fell by 10,000 to 201,000, indicating a strengthening labor market compared to expectations of a rise to 215,000.

eBay’s (EBAY) stock price rose more than 9% and led the S&P 500 higher after Meta Platforms offered to publish eBay listings on Facebook Marketplace to comply with a European Union antitrust ruling. Moderna’s (MRNA) stock closed down more than 9% after UBS cut its target price on the company’s shares to $96 from $108.

The US stock markets will be closed on January 9 due to a national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.44 per dollar, nearing January 2016 lows, as investors reacted to increased trade concerns amid political uncertainty following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Trudeau’s departure amid a crisis that includes a downgrade in his approval rating and looming tariff threats has left Canada without a clear strategy to counter Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could significantly impact Canadian exports.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.05%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.49%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.07%. The Eurozone Producer Price Index for November rose by 1.6% m/m, but on an annualized basis the index declined 1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of positive 1.5% m/m and negative 1.4% y/y.

On Wednesday, US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose more than 6% to above $3.6/MMBtu, helped by supply disruptions and strong global demand. The US utilities are drawing natural gas from storage at a faster-than-expected pace as colder-than-normal weather is expected to persist throughout January. Supply constraints have been exacerbated by increased volumes of gas going to LNG export plants due to Europe’s rejection of Russian pipeline supplies. As extreme cold weather is estimated to persist, fears of further supply cuts are pushing prices higher.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.86%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.77%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will auction CNY60 billion worth of six-month bills on the Hong Kong market on January 15 to boost overseas demand for the currency, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HMA) said in a statement. The issuance will be the largest since the Chinese Central Bank began holding regular bill auctions in the city in 2018. The move is aimed at reducing yuan liquidity in the market, increasing funding costs, and making short positions more expensive for traders. So far, the Central Bank has shown its resolve by stabilizing the yuan through daily fixings and promising not to allow excessive exchange rate fluctuations.

China’s annual inflation rate fell to 0.1% in December 2024 from 0.2% in the previous month, matching market estimates and marking the lowest since March. The latest results underscored the growing risks of deflation in the country despite government stimulus measures and the Central Bank’s supportive monetary policy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,918.25 +9.22 (+0.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,635.20 +106.84 (+0.25%)

DAX (DE40) 20,329.94 −10.63 (−0.05%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,251.03 +5.75 (+0.07%)

USD Index 109.01 +0.47 (+0.43%)

News feed for: 2025.01.09

  • Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • Mexican Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Yen Nears a Six-Month Low, Affected by the Strong US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair remained near the 158.00 mark on Thursday, consolidating at levels last seen in mid-2024. Although the pair is no longer surging as it did earlier in the year, the fundamental preconditions for further growth persist.

The yen continues to face significant downward pressure due to the strength of the US dollar. The greenback is buoyed by hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve, reinforcing expectations of a measured pace of rate cuts in 2025. The US dollar’s rally is further bolstered by renewed market concerns over tariff threats from US President-elect Donald Trump, adding to its safe-haven appeal.

Domestic data weighs on the yen

Japan’s domestic economic landscape is also contributing to the yen’s weakness. Fresh data showed that real wages in Japan fell by 0.3% year-on-year in November, marking the fourth consecutive month of declines. This wage downturn reflects ongoing challenges in the labour market and erodes consumer spending power, which is critical for economic recovery.

Adding to these woes, consumer sentiment in Japan deteriorated further in December, highlighting public concerns about economic stability. These signals make the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increasingly remote. The BoJ has maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance for years, and this latest data reinforces its reticence to tighten monetary conditions.

Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, reiterated this week the government’s readiness to intervene in currency markets should speculative, one-way moves in the yen persist. While such statements underline the government’s concerns about volatility, they have become a familiar refrain, offering little immediate support for the currency.

Since 4 December 2024, the yen has been in an active weakening phase, and there is little indication that this trend is nearing completion.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has formed a broad consolidation range around the 157.33 level. This range is expanding upwards, with the market targeting the 158.63 level as its primary objective. After reaching this target, a corrective wave to the 156.00 level could materialise. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned above the zero mark and pointing sharply upwards, indicating sustained bullish momentum.

The H1 chart shows the USD/JPY market amid a growth wave targeting 158.63. A consolidation range is forming around the 157.33 level, with an intermediate target at 158.40 already being worked out through an upward breakout. A minor correction back to 157.33 (testing the level from above) is possible. Upon completing this correction, the pair is expected to resume its upward movement towards the 158.63 level, the primary target for the current wave.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line positioned above the 50 mark and pointing decisively upwards, indicating bullish momentum remains intact.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Inflationary pressures are rising in the Eurozone. Platinum prices have reached a seven-week high

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.42%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 1.11%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 1.78%. The US stocks closed lower on Tuesday as good economic data drove Treasury yields higher, dampening expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. The Institute for Supply Management report showed faster-than-expected US service sector growth, adding to inflation concerns. In addition, job openings rose by 259,000 to 8.098 million in November, the highest in six months and above estimates of 7.7 million. The US trade deficit widened to $78.2 billion in November 2024, up from a revised $73.6 billion in October and roughly in line with projections.

Nvidia shares fell by 6.2%, driven by CEO Jensen Huang’s speech at CES on new artificial intelligence technologies and technological advancements. Tesla shares lost 4% after a downgrade by Bank of America, and Meta shares were down 1.9% after Zuckerberg announced that he would discontinue his third-party fact-checking program.

Canada’s trade deficit in November 2024 was CAD 0.32 billion, down from the previous month’s upwardly revised CAD 0.54 billion and better than market expectations for a deficit of CAD 0.9 billion. Despite the improvement, this is the ninth consecutive monthly deficit.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.62%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.59%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.03%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.05%. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.4% in December from 2.2% in November, thanks to a rise in the cost of services and energy prices, which was in line with expectations. Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months in the Eurozone rose for a second month to 2.6% in November 2024 from 2.5% in October. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead also rose to 2.4%.

Switzerland’s annualized inflation rate fell to 0.6% in December 2024 from 0.7% in the previous month, in line with projections. Monthly, consumer prices declined by 0.1% in December, maintaining the same rate of decline as in the previous two months and in line with market expectations.

Platinum (XPT/USD) prices rose to $960/oz in January, hitting a seven-week high, driven by optimism about China’s economic outlook. Beijing’s measures, including planned rate cuts and monetary stimulus, boosted platinum demand in the automotive and clean energy sectors, while a rebound in service sector activity and a more stable yuan supported market sentiment.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $75 a barrel on Wednesday, extending gains and approaching three-month highs amid signs of declining US crude inventories. API data showed a 4.022 million barrel decline in inventories last week, far exceeding the expected 0.25 million barrel drop. If the government data is confirmed, it would mark the fourth consecutive weekly decline and seventh in 12 weeks, the longest streak in three years.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell more than 5% to below $3.5/mmbtu on Tuesday, reversing a sharp 9.5% gain in the previous session. Severe cold weather in the eastern US has caused some wells and pipelines to freeze, reducing daily gas supply to a six-week low. Meteorologists expect colder-than-normal weather to continue in the US through January 21, with the coldest days still to come, which could further impact supply. In turn, Europe is adjusting to reduced gas supplies from Russia.

Asian markets were flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.97%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell 1.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.34%.

The Australian dollar showed a subdued market reaction to the latest inflation data. The monthly Australian Consumer Price Index rose to 2.3% in November, accelerating from a 2.1% rise in the previous two months and slightly above the expectations of 2.2%. However, core inflation, as measured by the average, slowed to 3.2% in November from 3.5% in October, raising expectations of an earlier rate cut. Markets are currently divided on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will act in February, but a quarter-point rate cut in April is a foregone conclusion.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,909.03 −66.35 (−1.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,528.36 −178.20 (−0.42%)

DAX (DE40) 20,340.57 +124.38 (+0.62%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,245.28 −4.38 (−0.053%)

USD Index 108.63 +0.37 (+0.34%)

News feed for: 2025.01.08

  • Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Canadian dollar rose amid Trudeau’s resignation. The Mexican peso became one of the most dynamic currencies in 2024

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.06%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.55%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 1.09%. The S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq (US100) indices gained thanks to gains in chipmakers and positive market sentiment ahead of a key December Nonfarm Payrolls report due out later this week. The semiconductor sector rallied sharply yesterday, especially after Nvidia’s server manufacturing partner Foxconn reported record earnings and an optimistic sales outlook. Market sentiment was boosted by a Washington Post report that President-elect Trump’s tariff plan will be narrower than expected, which could ease global trade tensions.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.43 per US dollar, rebounding from January 2016 lows reached earlier this month. Traders reacted to Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation and news that President Trump rejected reports of less stringent tariffs. Trudeau’s departure followed mounting crises including threats of tariffs, resignations of key allies and falling approval ratings, marking the end of his nine-year tenure as prime minister and potentially setting the stage for a snap election. Opinion polls currently favor conservatives, who favor tax cuts and maintain closer ties to Trump.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 20.36 per US dollar, recovering from a March 2022 low, driven by speculation over President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Reports suggest a more targeted approach, focusing only on imports deemed critical to US national or economic security, easing market concerns. In addition, the peso’s rally has been bolstered by reduced risk aversion and growing optimism about Mexico’s economic outlook. This has made the peso one of the most dynamic emerging market currencies.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 2.24% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.34%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.31%. In Europe, data showed that German inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.9% in December, beating estimates of 2.6%, adding to fears of continued price pressures. The data reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) would be cautious about cutting interest rates.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.5% on Monday, breaking a five-day streak of gains, after the US dollar cut losses and weak economic data from the US and Germany cast a shadow over the demand outlook. A weaker dollar usually makes oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.47%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 1.15%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.36%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.08%. The declines in Hong Kong were mainly led by the consumer and technology sectors, with Tencent Holdings falling nearly 5% after the US blacklisted it along with CATL Co. over alleged ties to the Chinese military. The move came just weeks before Donald Trump took office.

In 2024, the Australian dollar fell the most in six years, but its decline seems far from over — there is a chance it will fall below 60 US cents in the coming months. Since late September, the Australian dollar has suffered from deteriorating global risk sentiment and growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be forced to cut interest rates. Another negative factor is the prospect of a trade war between the US and China, Australia’s largest trading partner.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.565 on Tuesday after rising 0.6% in the previous session. The kiwi received support from strong service sector activity data as well as additional support from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. However, domestic factors continue to weigh on the currency amid expectations of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The RBNZ is expected to cut the 4.25% monetary rate by 50 bps at its February meeting.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,975.38 +32.91 (+0.55%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,706.56 −25.57 (−0.06%)

DAX (DE40) 20,216.19 +310.11 (+1.56%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,249.66 +310.11 (+1.56%)

USD Index 108.23 −0.72 (−0.66%)

News feed for: 2025.01.07

  • Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • Canada Ivey PMI  (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Markets ponder Trump tariff confusion

By ForexTime

  • Trump tariff remarks fan uncertainty
  • FXTM USDInd ↓ 1% this week
  • Fed minutes next major risk event

We are just a few days into 2025, and markets are buzzing with activity.

FXTM’s USDInd has shed 1% this week with prices testing the 108.00 support.

  • US500 ↑ 1.6% YTD
  • XAUUSD ↑ 0.7% YTD
  • BITCOIN ↑ 8% YTD

What is causing this volatility?

The simple answer is Donald Trump.

There is a growing sense of anticipation ahead of his inauguration on Monday 20th January.

However, the recent burst of market volatility can be attributed to market confusion around Trump tariff plans.

In the previous session, the Washington Post reported that Trump’s aides were considering softer tariffs. According to the report, the aides explored tariffs only covering critical imports.

This cooled fears around rising US inflation, further reducing Fed cut bets – ultimately hitting the USD.

However, Trump later denied these claims through his Truth Social platform.

What does this mean?

These conflicting reports may raise questions about Trump’s ability to move ahead with aggressive tariffs promised during his presidential campaign.

Back in November 2024 we highlighted how Trump’s tariffs will be a major theme this year.

In our 2025 market outlook, we stated that his return could dominate global financial markets.

Any fresh developments or conflicting reports concerning Trump’s tariffs could spell more volatility.

By the way…

The next market-moving event could be the Fed minutes published on Wednesday 8th January.

Back in December, Fed Chair Powell said that the decision to cut rates was a “closer call”. If the minutes strike a hawkish note, this could boost the dollar while weakening gold and US equities.

Over the past 12 months, this is how the Fed minutes have impacted these assets in the 6 hours post release:

  • Bitcoin: ↑ 2.0% or ↓ 1.5%
  • NAS100: ↑ 1.9% or ↓ 0.9%
  • US500: ↑ 1.2% or ↓ 0.6%
  • XAUUSD: ↑ 0.3% or ↓ 0.3%
  • USDInd:  ↑ 0.1% or ↓ 0.2%

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Goldman Sachs outlined its projections for 2025. Vietnam’s inflation rose to a 4-month high

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) added 0.80% on Friday (for the week -0.95%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 1.26% (for the week -1.06%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 1.67% (for the week -1.42%). ISM data showed that US manufacturing orders rose more than expected in December, raising hopes that the sector may be on the road to recovery. However, factories expressed concern about the impact of tariffs and increased purchases to reduce the cost of more expensive inputs in the near term.

Goldman Sachs outlined seven key macroeconomic estimates for 2025, predicting that the year will be characterized by easing financial conditions, further rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainty. From the main one:

  • The bank predicts strong global real GDP growth of 2.7% annualized in 2025, driven by rising real disposable income and easing financial conditions.
  • Goldman expects US GDP growth to exceed consensus at 2.4% in 2025, citing solid income growth and easing financial policy. Core PCE inflation is estimated to slow to 2.4% by December 2025, reflecting a further cooling of inflation.
  • Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to conduct three rate cuts in 2025, with the first 25 bps rate cut in March, followed by additional cuts in June and September. This would result in a final rate of 3.5-3.75%. The Bank also expects the Fed to begin winding down its balance sheet in January and complete it by the second quarter of 2025.
  • The European Central Bank is expected to continue its sequential 25 bps rate cuts, bringing the rate to 1.75% by July 2025. However, Goldman notes the potential downside risks to rate cuts, warning that faster and deeper cuts may be needed if growth and inflation weaken further.
  • Goldman Sachs estimates that real GDP growth in China will slow to 4.5% in 2025 as policy easing measures will not fully offset weak domestic consumption and the impact of higher US tariffs.
  • Goldman advises investors to monitor US policy changes and geopolitical developments closely. The report notes risks related to the Middle East situation, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and US-China relations.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.59% (for the week +0.29%), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.51% (for the week -0.10%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.22% (for the week +1.74%), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.44% (for the week -1.07%). European indices are now under pressure as investors continue to assess the impact of more expensive energy prices and potential tariffs from the US. The cessation of natural gas supplies from Russia via Ukraine risks a new spike in electricity prices in Germany and other countries dependent on cheap natural gas. In addition to lowering the profits of major German producers, rising electricity costs also have the potential to reignite inflation in the Eurozone, limiting the ECB’s ability to cut rates.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.1% to reach $74 per barrel on Friday, helped by cold weather in Europe and the US and optimism over China’s stimulus measures. That rally drove prices to a two-month high and contributed to a weekly gain of nearly 5%. Concerns about the fragility of the Chinese economy have heightened expectations of new policy measures to stimulate growth in the world’s largest oil importer. These hopes offset last week’s bearish demand outlook.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.75%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 4.12%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.61%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.60%.

The Australian dollar held steady above $0.62 on Friday, supported by higher oil and gold prices, given Australia’s role as a major commodity exporter. The currency also received support from an improving economic outlook in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, after Beijing promised “more active” macroeconomic policies and lower interest rates this year. However, the Australian dollar remains near two-year lows, pressured by the continued strength of the US dollar.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.94% in December 2024, accelerating from 2.77% in the previous month. This is the highest inflation rate since August, as housing and construction materials prices rose. The annualized core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items, rose to a ten-month high of 2.85%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,942.47 +73.92 (+1.26%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,732.13 +339.86 (+0.80%)

DAX (DE40) 19,906.08 −118.58 (−0.59%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,223.98 −36.11 (−0.44%)

USD Index 108.92 −0.47 (−0.43%)

News feed for: 2025.01.06

  • Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
  • Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
  • Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 08:30 (GMT+2);
  • German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
  • US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • US Factory Orders (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Week Ahead: Gold to retest record highs?

By ForexTime 

  • Gold ↑ 1% YTD, adding to 27% gain in 2024
  • Less than 5% away from all-time high
  • Over past year NFP has triggered moves of ↑ 0.8% & ↓ 0.9%
  • Bloomberg FX model: 73% chance of $2611.66 – $2703.68 range next week
  • Technical levels: $2620 & $2670

Gold is already up 1% in 2025 after securing its biggest annual gain since 2010.

The precious metal ended last year 27% higher thanks to central bank buying, falling US rates, and geopolitical risk.

Prices touched a three-week high on Friday morning, supported by a softer dollar and cautious market mood.

Nevertheless, the US December nonfarm payrolls report may shape gold’s outlook for January.

Watch out for other key data releases that could spark market volatility:

Monday, 6th January

  • CN50: China Caixin services and composite PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone HCOB services and composite PMI,
  • GER40: Germany CPI, HCOB services and composite PMI
  • USDInd: S&P Global PMI’s, Fed Governor Lisa Cook speech

Tuesday, 7th January

  • AU200: Australia building approvals
  • EU50: Eurozone CPI, unemployment
  • TWN: Taiwan CPI
  • US500: US job openings, ISM services, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speech

Wednesday, 8th January

  • AU200: Australia CPI
  • EUR: Eurozone PPI, consumer confidence
  • GER40: Germany factory orders
  • USDInd: US ADP employment, FOMC minute

Thursday, 9th January

  • AU200: Australia retail sales, trade
  • CN50: China CPI, PPI
  • EUR: Eurozone retail sales
  • GER40: Germany industrial production, trade
  • RUS2000: Speeches by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid

Friday, 10th January

  • CAD: Canada unemployment
  • JP225: Japan household spending, leading index
  • US500: University of Michigan consumer sentiment
  • XAUUSD: US nonfarm payrolls

Gold is respecting a bullish channel on the weekly timeframe with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200 week SMA.

gold weekly

At the current price of $2654, the precious metal is less than 5% away from it’s all-time high at $2790.17.

But do bulls have what it takes to push prices back to records this month?

 

Here are 3 reasons why gold could see significant prices swings:

    1) US December NFP report – Friday 10th January

The US economy is expected to have created 153,000 new jobs in December 2024. This is much lower than November’s 227,000 headline figure. However, the unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

Traders are currently pricing in a 54% probability of a 25-basis point cut by March with this jumping to 76% by May.

  • Gold prices could appreciate if a weaker-than-expected NFP reports rekindles bets around aggressive US interest rate cuts.
  • A stronger-than-expected NFP report may drag gold prices lower, as rate cut bets fade further.

Note: Gold cold see heightened volatility before Friday’s NFP due to the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and speeches by Fed officials throughout the week.

Over the past 12 months, the 6 hours after the US NFP release has seen upwards moves for Gold as much as 0.8% or declines as much as 0.9%.

    2) Geopolitical risk

Russia’s recent drone strike on Kyiv and ongoing tensions in the Middle East could spark risk aversion.

Escalating global tensions may send investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

 

    3) Technical forces

Despite the recent jump in prices, gold remains in a range on the daily charts. Support can be found at $2560 and resistance at $2725.

  • A solid breakout and daily close above $2670 may open a path toward $2700 and $2725.
  • Should prices slip below the 100-day SMA at $2620, this may open the doors toward $2610 and $2600.

golddd

Currently, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 73% chance that Gold will trade within the $2611.66 – $2703.68 range next week.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Inflationary pressures are easing in Indonesia. Oil prices rise amid falling inventories

By JustMarkets

On the last day of 2024, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.07% (for 2024 +12.80%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.43% (for 2024 +24.01%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) decreased by 0.87% (for 2024 +27.01%). In the US, markets are awaiting Friday’s US Manufacturing Activity Index data for December to determine the market’s direction and assess the health of the US manufacturing sector. The December manufacturing sector business activity index is expected to decline by 0.2 to 48.2.

The Mexican peso faced negative factors related to the strength of the US dollar, which was supported by rising yields and demand for the safe-haven currency. In addition, low liquidity during the holidays further exacerbated losses, leaving the peso among the worst-performing emerging market currencies in 2024, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 19%.

European markets were not trading on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained +18.72% over 2024, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.99% for the year, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 13.88% for the year, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) added 5.85% over the past year.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $72 a barrel on Thursday, in the first session after the New Year’s break, following the release of a report on a decline in US crude inventories. The API data showed a 1.4 million barrel decline in US crude inventories for the week ended December 27. If the official data is confirmed today, it would mark the third consecutive weekly decline.

Asian markets were mostly up on Tuesday, December 31. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading (+19.85% for 2024), China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 1.03% (+19.50% for the year), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.09% (up +19.49% for the year), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was also not trading on December 31 (up +7.18% for 2024).

China’s central bank (PBoC) injected 1.7 trillion yuan ($233 billion) into the economy and financial markets in December, boosting liquidity at the end of the year. This followed 800 billion and 500 billion yuan injections in the past two months, with a new instrument introduced in October. The cash injections underscore the PBOC’s accommodative stance after the country’s top leaders pledged to provide additional “moderately loose” policy support for an economy facing the threat of escalating trade tensions.

The Australian dollar (AUD) climbed above US$0.62 on Thursday, recovering from two-year lows as higher commodity prices lent support, favoring Australia’s position as a net exporter of basic resources.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened slightly as traders anticipated a recovery in China, New Zealand’s main trading partner, following President Xi Jinping’s pledge last Tuesday to implement more active policies to stimulate growth. However, private data showed an unexpected slowdown in factory activity growth, coinciding with a growth slowdown indicated by official data released earlier this week. The currency remained near two-year lows under pressure from dovish expectations from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate for December 2024 was 1.57%, little changed from November’s three-year low of 1.55%. The latest result was slightly below market expectations of 1.6% but remained within the central bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. Core inflation, excluding managed and volatile food prices, held steady at 2.26%, remaining at a 16-month high but slightly short of the expected 2.28%.

Singapore’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, slowing from the 5.4% growth in the third quarter but beating market expectations of 3.8%. For the full year, the economy grew by 4%, exceeding the 1.1% growth seen in 2023 and beating forecasts of 3.5%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,881.63 −25.31 (−0.43%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,544.22 −29.51 (−0.07%)

DAX (DE40) 19,909.14 −75.18 (−0.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,173.02 +52.01 (+0.64%)

USD index 108.48 +0.35 (+0.32%)

News feed for: 2025.01.02

  • Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
  • Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Oil and gas prices are rising on the back of another decline in inventories.

By JustMarkets

As of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.77% (for the week +1.65%). The S&P500 Index (US500) was down 1.11% (for the week +2.21%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.36% (for the week +2.55%). The major Wall Street indices fell sharply in afternoon trading, led by a technological stock sell-off. Nevertheless, all 3 major indices remained positive at the end of the week.

The US trade deficit widened to $102.9 bln in November from $98.3 bln in October, more than expectations of $101.2 bln. This is negative for Q4 GDP and bearish for stocks.

Tesla (TSLA) fell more than 3% amid reports that car rental company Hertz is so desperate to get rid of its inventory of Tesla vehicles that it is aggressively sending out cheap buyback options to customers. Broadcom (AVGO) is down more than 2% on signs of insider selling after the CFO sold $2.89 million shares last Friday.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.68% (for the week -1.43%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.00% higher (for the week +0.91%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.50% (for the week +0.60%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.16% (for the week -0.60%) on Friday.

WTI crude oil prices rose 1.4% to $70.6/bbl on Friday amid another decline in US crude inventories. Increasingly pessimistic economic signals from China supported bets that fuel demand from the world’s main oil importer will slow. In turn, rising supply from Canada, the US, and Brazil may offset prolonged production cuts by OPEC+ members. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains as US President-elect Trump may support domestic production and tighten sanctions on energy exports from Iran.

The US natural gas prices rose to $3.36/MMBtu after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected 93 billion cubic feet decline in storage inventories for the week ended Dec. 20, which was below forecasts for a 99 bcf decline, bringing inventories to 3,529 bcf.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 2.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.45%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.57% for the week.

On Friday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the need to monitor economic risks but refrained from giving clear guidance on future rate hikes. As for the data, Japan’s retail sales rose the most in three months in November, while industrial production fell less than expected.

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.62 but remained near two-year lows, reflecting its continued troubles amid subdued holiday trade. Earlier in December, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adopted a dovish tone, introducing an explicit easing bias. Weaker-than-expected trends in consumer spending, wage growth, and housing-related inflation drove the shift. As a result, markets have come to view the probability of a rate cut as early as February as 50/50.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,970.84 −66.75 (−1.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,992.21 −333.59 (−0.77%)

DAX (DE40) 19,984.32 +135.55 (+0.68%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,149.78 +12.79 (+0.16%)

USD index 108.01 (−0.11%)

News feed for: 2024.12.30

  • Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
  • US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The RBA may go for a rate cut in February. New Zealand dollar is falling amid recession in the economy and RBNZ’s dovish stance

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.07%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.04%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 0.13%. The three major indices closed subdued on the day after the Christmas holiday. Markets remained subdued as they assessed the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike on corporate earnings next year. New labor market data showed a slight decline in jobless claims, down 1k to 219k instead of the expected increase of 4k.

Equity markets in Europe have not traded for the last 2 days due to the Christmas holidays.

CEBR projections that Britain will narrow the gap with the more lagging German economy over the next 15 years. Europe’s largest economy is expected to be 20% larger than the UK’s in 2039, up from 31% now. Similarly, the UK will overtake France and be 25% larger in terms of output by 2039.

WTI crude oil prices are holding near the $70 per barrel mark, supported by stimulus measures in China and a US industry report of lower crude inventories. In China, local authorities have been given more leeway to use funds from government bonds to stimulate growth. In the United States, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 3.2 million barrel drop in commercial crude inventories, which would be the fifth consecutive decline if confirmed by official data. Usually, the US inventories fall in December and then rise in the early months.

Asian markets rose steadily yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.12%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 1.27%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.08%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was not trading due to the Christmas holiday. Japanese stocks rose on Thursday thanks to comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who stopped short of signaling an interest rate hike next month, emphasizing the need to monitor economic risks. In addition, the report said the country is planning a record $735 billion budget for fiscal 2025, driven by higher spending on social security and debt service.

The World Bank raised China’s economic growth projection for 2024 and 2025, but warned that low Household and Business Confidence and unfavorable factors in the real estate sector will continue to weigh on the economy next year. An expected increase in US tariffs on its goods when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January could also weigh on growth. Beijing has set its growth target for this year at “around 5%” and said it is confident it will meet that target.

On Thursday, the New Zealand dollar remained steady at around $0.565 on low trading volumes due to the holiday break. Rising expectations of more aggressive monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continued to weigh on the currency. Data released last week showed that the New Zealand economy contracted by 1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, following a revised 1.1% contraction in the previous period. This was worse than the 0.4% contraction expected by the market, officially putting the country into recession. As a result, investors fully priced in an excessive 50bp rate cut at the next RBNZ meeting in February.

This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of its December meeting, emphasizing the need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for the time being. Earlier this month, the RBA kept its key interest rate at 4.35%, which was in line with market expectations. However, taking many by surprise, the RBA suggested the possibility of a rate cut as early as February next year.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,037.59 −2.45 (−0.04%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,325.80 +28.77 (+0.07%)

DAX (DE40) 19,848.77 −35.98 (−0.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,136.99 +34.27 (+0.42%)

USD Index 108.10 −0.16 (−0.14%)

News feed for: 2024.12.27

  • Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
  • US Crude Oil Inventories (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.