Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 284

Murrey Math Lines 05.10.2022 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

In the H4 chart, USDJPY is trading within the “overbought area”. The Relative Strength Index is slowly moving towards 30. In this case, the pair is expected to break 8/8 (143.75) and then continue falling to reach the support at 7/8 (142.18). However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the resistance +1/8 (145.31) to the upside. After that, the instrument may grow towards +2/8 (146.87).

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its decline.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

In the H4 chart, USDCAD is still correcting within the uptrend. The Relative Strength Index is approachi9ng 30, but may yet fall a bit. In this case, the price is expected to test 6/8 (1.3427), break it, and then continue moving downwards to reach the support at 5/8 (1.3305). However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 7/8 (1.3549) to the upside. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards +1/8 (1.3793).

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair may has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading downwards to reach 5/8 (1.3305) from the H4 chart.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Oct

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, DOGE). Overview for 05.10.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The BTC recovered pretty much, but doesn’t want to follow the American stock market. On Wednesday, the asset is mostly fluctuating at $20,238.

So, the major crypto was supported from two sides: a rebound of the American exchanges and a correction in the DXY.

All technical aspects for the BTC remain pretty much the same, without any significant changes. In order for the rebound to transform into a proper growth, the asset must break the resistance at $21,000 and secure above $22,000. A major support area is still at $18,000-$19,000.

What’s next? We should keep a close eye on what will happen to global trends. Stock markets are highly unlikely to continue rising systematically, because the fundamental background hasn’t changed. The rates are rising, so is inflation, and the future prospects for companies and enterprises are still rather vague. However, the data released yesterday showed a slight slowdown in the US labour market, which may prevent the Fed from being aggressive in tightening its monetary policy. Any optimistic vibe is now looking very fragile, that’s why investors are very careful about buying.

Binance is launching a product for XRP

Crypto exchange Binance added the XRP to the list of products for bi-currency investments. It’s a double investment product, which helps to receive more profit during the subscription period regardless of the price movements.

DOGE is in demand again

DOGE has made Top 3 of the most profitable cryptos in the last 24 hours – it has gained over 8%. The market capitalisation has risen to $8.64 billion, while the daily transaction volume was $960 million.

Article By RoboForex.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

05 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.10.05

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9824
Prev Close: 0.9983
% chg. over the last day: +1.62 %

The Eurozone Producer Price Index, which measures the inflation rate between businesses and factories, reached an annualized rate of 5% in August, up from 4% in July. The biggest price increase was seen in the energy sector, plus 11.8%, while consumer goods rose by 0.8%. In her speech yesterday, ECB head Christine Lagarde said she did not know whether Eurozone inflation had peaked and was not ready to predict when that peak would be. So, the ECB will only rely on actual data and will gradually raise the interest rate until inflation starts to slow down.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9845, 0.9748, 0.9666.
Resistance levels: 0.9965, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has changed to bullish. Yesterday, the price broke through the priority change level and consolidated higher. The MACD indicator is positive, the price is trading above the average lines, and the buyer’s pressure remains high. Buy trades should be considered after a small pullback, as the price is overbought now and has strongly deviated from the middle lines. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0111, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9666 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.05:

– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1317
Prev Close: 1.1467
% chg. over the last day: +1.33 %

The pound/dollar exchange rate is back above 1.14, extending a six-day recovery. Fiscal changes in the UK have had a fairly broad impact on global risk attitudes and likely contributed to a rebound in risk assets and bonds. But analysts believe that, given geopolitical developments in Europe and the energy crisis, it is “too early to rejoice” as winter is ahead. Experts believe that fundamentally, the euro and the pound are still inclined to fall, so any rebound should be used to look for sell deals.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1281, 1.1121, 1.0915, 1.0816, 1.0711, 1.03
Resistance levels: 1.1478, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has changed to bullish. The price has broken through the priority change level and is confidently trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator remains positive, but the divergence is present. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1281, but only with confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.1478, but it is also better with confirmation because the entry is against the main movement.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down from the 1.0709 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.05:

– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 144.50
Prev Close: 144.14
% chg. over the last day: -0.25 %

Japanese government bond yields fell sharply on Tuesday, following Treasury yields, which fell amid weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data. In a research note, Nomura Securities analyst predicted that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to loosen its yield curve control (YCC) policy next July, allowing 10-year bond yields to reach 0.4% or 0.5%. Right now, the BOJ is keeping the 10-year yield below 0.25%. In other words, once the BoJ starts to revise its policy, the Japanese yen could gain fundamental support.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 143.00, 140.60, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
Resistance levels: 144.66, 145.35

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the price is trading below the moving averages. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for on intraday time frames from the support level of 143.00, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 144.66, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 140.60, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.05:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3618
Prev Close: 1.3508
% chg. over the last day: -0.81 %

The Canadian dollar strengthened sharply yesterday as the dollar index fell. CAD confidence was boosted by oil, which jumped by 3%, ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. The meeting will take place today, and OPEC+ countries will consider cutting their quota by 1-2 million BPD to support oil prices. If the OPEC+ countries do cut production, this move will drastically reduce supply in the oil market, but the Canadian dollar will only benefit from this as it is a commodity currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3454, 1.3297, 1.3212, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958
Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3755, 1.3858, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bearish. The MACD indicator became negative, and the price is trading below the moving lines. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3454, but with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3660 or 1.3756, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3756, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.05:

– OPEC+ Meeting at 13:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Oct

The RBNZ raised the interest rate by 50 bps. Stock indices rise as economic indicators fall

By JustForex

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday that job openings fell from 11.17 million to 10.05 million during August. On the one hand, the news is negative. Still, on the other hand, investors have begun to wonder if the slowdown seen in the US economy will cause the Federal Reserve to adjust its rate hike trajectory and be less aggressive. The real estate market is already in recession, manufacturing activity is slowing, and the labor market has shown signs of weakness. This caused the dollar and US government bond yields to pull back sharply, allowing the stock market to rise substantially.

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.80%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 3.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.69% on Tuesday.

Monetary and fiscal policies in advanced economies, including continued interest rate hikes, could push the world into a global recession and stagnation, the UN Trade and Development said. The global recession has the potential to cause more damage than the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 shock in 2020. Developing countries in Asia and Africa could bear the brunt of the impending recession, according to the report. If central banks continue to raise interest rates without using other tools and without considering supply-side economics, the desired soft landing is unlikely.

The Global Manufacturing PMI fell into contractionary territory (below the 50 level) for the first time since 2020. The Core Index fell from 50.3 in August to 49.8 in September. The report points to a worsening manufacturing trend in the coming months amid an intensifying downturn in global trade flows, reduced demand related to the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, and growing economic uncertainty about the outlook.

Reuters reported that billionaire Elon Musk plans to realize his initial $44 billion bid to privatize Twitter Inc.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly rising yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 3.78%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 4.24%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 3.14%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 2.57% yesterday.

Fiscal changes in the UK had a rather broad impact on global risk attitude and probably contributed to the recovery of risky assets and bonds. But according to analysts, European assets still have a long way to go to restore market positioning, given the energy crisis and geopolitical events. Experts remain skeptical about Europe and believe the recent recovery in sentiment is temporary.

There will be an important OPEC+ meeting today. According to preliminary information, the OPEC+ countries will consider cutting the quota by 1-2 million barrels per day in order to support oil prices. Yesterday, the price of “black gold” jumped by 3% on these rumors. If OPEC+ countries cut production, this step will sharply reduce supply in the oil market. For his part, Kuwait Oil Minister said yesterday that OPEC+ would make a suitable decision to guarantee energy supplies and serve the interests of producers and consumers.

Asian markets traded higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.96%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) did not trade, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day up 3.75%.

The Central Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its interest rate by 0.5% but considered a 0.75% increase. The RBNZ raised interest rates for the eighth time in a row, bringing the interest rate to 3.5%, the highest among major economies. The meeting minutes said that inflation is currently too high and employment is above the maximum sustainable level. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr noted that their tightening cycle has become “very mature,” although “there is still some work to be done.” The RBNZ expects its OCR rate to be 3.7% by December, and with only one meeting left this year, the RBNZ is very likely to raise the rate by 0.25% at the end of the year.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,791.05 +112.62 (+3.06%)

Dow Jones (US30) 30,316.98 +826.09 (+2.80%)

DAX (DE40) 12,670.48 +461.00 (+3.78%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,086.46 +177.70 (+2.57%)

USD Index 110.15 -1.60 (-1.43%)

Important events for today:

– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand Interest Rate Decision at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– OPEC+ Meeting at 13:00 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Oct

PREVIEW: OPEC+ could rock oil markets today

By ForexTime

OPEC+ will be holding an in-person meeting in Vienna today, and is set to announce a major decision that’s likely to reverberate across global oil markets.

Given the forward-looking nature of markets, oil benchmarks have climbed over the past week in anticipation of today’s keenly-awaited meeting.

Brent is now in sentinel mode, hovering above the psychologically-important $90/bbl line at the time of writing, but still remains in the downtrend that’s persisted since June.

Brent’s recent recovery have been based on the notion that the OPEC+ alliance would significantly tighten its oil taps in November, perhaps by as much as 2 million bpd, in order to shore up prices.

What is OPEC+?

OPEC+ is an alliance of 23 major oil-producing nations, with Saudi Arabia and Russia seen as its de facto leaders.

Their collective job is to determine how much of their oil supplies are sent out into the world, which in turn influences global prices such a Brent and US Crude.

Econs 101: Supply vs. Demand

Let’s revisit some basic Economics in order to understand how OPEC+’s upcoming decision will impact oil prices:

When supply is higher than demand = prices go down
When demand is higher than supply = prices go up

Note in the chart above how Brent has been dropping since June.

This is because of fears that global demand for oil is weakening amid a potential recession.

Lower demand (possible global recession) + Higher supply (OPEC+ restoring supplies; more on this below) = Brent prices falling.

The declines in oil prices have already prompted OPEC+ to sit up and act.

Earlier this month, the alliance had already imposed a symbolic 100k bpd supply reduction for October.

100,000 bpd pales in comparison against the 100,000,000 (100 million) barrels that the world uses per day. That’s just 0.1%

Even with such a token sum, that was already an early sign of a U-turn.

Recall how since July 2021, OPEC+ has been gradually raising output, or more specifically, restoring output back to pre-pandemic levels.
Today, they could announce a sizeable lowering of its output starting in November.

The hope is that:

Elevated global demand + lower supplies = prices move back higher
(so that OPEC+ members can continue earning higher revenue from those elevated global oil prices).

Here are 3 potential scenarios for markets to consider in light of the imminent OPEC+ decision:

OPEC+ announces a 2 million bpd cut

Such an announcement may lead to a knee-jerk spike in oil prices.

Potential immediate resistance for Brent:

$93.50 = 50-day simple moving average (SMA)
$95.11 = previous cycle high

Now this is where it gets tricky, cause the devil is in the details.

Such a massive headline figure also must meaningfully change that supply-demand equation (as above) for global markets.

Note that, under the previous campaign (since mid-2021) to restore output, OPEC+ members had already been struggling to reach their respective ramped-up output quotas.

Due to years of underinvestment and even political instability in some OPEC+ members, many countries couldn’t pump out as many barrels of oil as they said they were going to under the previous agreement.

Bloomberg estimates that gap between the output target vs. the actual output = 3.5 million bpd.

Hence, even if OPEC+ announces a 2 million bpd cut, it may just be perceived as empty words and may not be an actual cut in the real world.

It all boils down to how those 2 million bpd would filter down to each OPEC+ member’s actual output levels.

OPEC+ announces an output cut of 1 million bpd – 1.5 million bpd

Brent prices may just hold around current levels

OPEC+ announces an output cut that’s smaller than 1 million bpd

Such disappointing news may prompt Brent to unwind its recent gains.

Potential immediate support levels for Brent:

(previous cycle lows)

$86.88
$84.77
$82.53

Overall, OPEC+ has to forcefully demonstrate its desire to restore prices to market fundamentals in order to offer meaningful support for oil benchmarks, amid the wave of demand-destroying policy tightening by central banks around the world.

In order for oil prices to continue marching higher, the OPEC+ announcement today has to not just materially influence the global supply-demand equation, but the alliance also has to signal its willingness for more output cuts in the future.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Energy Financial News

04 Oct

Murrey Math Lines 04.10.2022 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a possible descending tendency. The Relative Strength Index has rebounded from the resistance line. In this case, the pair is expected to break 1/8 (0.6469) and then continue falling towards the support at 0/8 (0.6347). However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the resistance at 2/8 (0.6591) to the upside. After that, the instrument may move upwards to reach 3/8 (0.6714).

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline towards 0/8 (0.6347) from the H4 chart.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD is also trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. The Relative Strength Index has rebounded from the resistance area. In this case, the price is expected to test 2/8 (0.5615), break it, and then continue moving downwards to reach the support at 1/8 (0.5493). However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 3/8 (0.5737) to the upside. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards 4/8 (0.5859).

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue moving downwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Oct

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 04.10.2022 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is testing the bearish channel’s upside border. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.9760 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.0085. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.9605. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.9510. To confirm a further uptrend, the price must break the bearish channel’s upside border and fix above 0.9895.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is about to break another resistance level. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 1680.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1755.00. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1630.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1605.00.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has rebounded from the resistance level. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.9870 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.0140. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.9725. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.9635.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.10.04

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9788
Prev Close: 0.9823
% chg. over the last day: +0.36 %

The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Europe continues to decline. The most significant drop is in Germany (48.3→47.8), Spain (49.9→49.0), and France (47.8→47.7). Italy has a small gain (48.0→48.3), but the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Index has fallen from 48.5 to 48.4. A value below 50 for the third consecutive month indicates that the Eurozone economy is, de facto, already in recession. The main problem for the Eurozone is still high inflation combined with rising energy and gas prices, which forces companies to economize and cut production.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9748, 0.9666, 0.9601.
Resistance levels: 0.9863, 0.9951, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish, but the price has approached the priority change level. The MACD indicator is positive, but the buyers’ pressure is weakening. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance level of 0.9863. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 0.9666 or 0.9601, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the resistance level of 0.9863 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.04:

– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1155
Prev Close: 1.1321
% chg. over the last day: +1.49 %

British Prime Minister Liz Truss unexpectedly canceled plans to cut the maximum income tax rate after a negative reaction from the public and the International Monetary Fund. Analysts believe this is a serious and humiliating situation for the new Prime Minister Liz Truss, who had insisted on the contrary on Sunday. On the other hand, the British pound hardly reacted to this news and continued its rally.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1121, 1.0915, 1.0816, 1.0711, 1.03
Resistance levels: 1.1311, 1.1449, 1.1626, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. But the price is close to the priority change level. The MACD indicator remains positive, but the divergence is present. Under such market conditions, looking for sell deals on intraday time frames is better. The nearest resistance level is 1.1311, which is the priority change level. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.0915 or 1.0816, but only with confirmation and short targets

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.1311 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 144.65
Prev Close: 144.55
% chg. over the last day: -0.07 %

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that Japan is ready for “decisive” steps in the currency market if excessive yen movements persist. At the moment, the ministry is holding the price ceiling of USD/JPY at 145. On the other hand, the yen is weakening due to Japan’s policy of keeping interest rates low while they are rising elsewhere. As a result, USD/JPY quotes are trading in balance without any significant advances.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 144.19, 143.00, 140.60, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
Resistance levels: 145.35

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, the price is trading at the level of the moving averages, and the balance is being formed. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought in the intraday time frames from the support level of 144.19, but with confirmation, since the level has already been tested. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 145.35, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 140.60, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.04:

– Japan Tokyo Core CP (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3815
Prev Close: 1.3622
% chg. over the last day: -1.42 %

Canada’s Manufacturing PMI Index showed a sharp increase over the previous month. The PMI rose from 48.7 to 49.8, indicating that the Canadian economy is close to a recovery. But there were a few negatives as well. The PMI report indicated that demand had been hit hard by rising interest rates. Companies have become less optimistic about their production expectations for the year ahead. Overall, the Canadian economy is probably one of the strongest in the world right now, despite rising global inflation and high-interest rates.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3545, 1.3453, 1.3297, 1.3212, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958
Resistance levels: 1.3858, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator became negative, and the price is trading below the moving lines. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3545, but with confirmation. For selling, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3756, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.3545 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Oct

The RBA raised the rate by 0.25% instead of 0.5%. The US stock indices rebounded from September lows.

By JustForex

The US stocks rose on the first trading day of October after a challenging September. The Dow Jones (US30) and S&P 500 (US500) indices experienced their worst months since March 2020 and were dangerously close to their June lows. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.79%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.59%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.91% on Monday.

Shares of Apple, Microsoft, and Google pushed the tech sector up. But Tesla shares fell more than 8.5% as the company reported third-quarter deliveries that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.

Analysts believe that even though the long-term trend points to lower prices, fresh quarterly flows could rebound from current levels. At the same time, experts pointed out that higher US Treasury bond yields continue to discourage investors from risky assets.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.76%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.55%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.29%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed yesterday with 0.22% gain.

In Switzerland, the Consumer Price Index in September 2022 decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month. In annual terms, inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.3%. The Swiss and Canadian economies are currently among the most resilient in an environment of rising interest rates and high energy prices.

The Business Activity Index in the manufacturing sectors across Europe continues to decline. The biggest declines are in Germany (48.3→47.8), Spain (49.9→49.0), and France (47.8→47.7). Italy has a small gain (48.0→48.3), but the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI index has fallen from 48.5 to 48.4. A value below 50 for the third consecutive month indicates that the Eurozone economy is, de facto, already in recession. The main problem for the Eurozone is still high inflation, which is accompanied by rising electricity and gas prices, forcing companies to economize and cut production.

Oil prices rose on Monday. The OPEC+ meeting, which begins Wednesday, could well lead to a production cut of one million barrels a day, pushing oil traders to buy. Technically, oil is pointing to further declines, so OPEC+ countries are serious about getting prices back above $90 a barrel by cutting.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained +1.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended yesterday down by 0.83%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down by 0.27%.

The Central Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its interest rate by 0.25%, which came as a surprise since the expectation was a 0.5% increase. The accompanying statement said that the RBA decided to raise the monetary rate by 25 basis points this month as it reassessed the outlook for inflation and economic growth in Australia. The central CPI inflation forecast is about 7.75% in 2022, just over 4% in 2023, and about 3% in 2024. That said, further rate increases are expected in the coming months.

The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) is set to raise the official interest rate (OCR) for the eighth consecutive time tomorrow. Analysts are forecasting another 50 basis point increase in the OCR to 3.5%, the highest level since mid-2015. On the other hand, if the RBNZ raises the rate by 0.25% tomorrow instead of 0.5%, as the RBA did today, it would be a great precedent for other central banks, including the US Fed, to become less aggressive, and would also indicate that we are close to the end of the rate hike cycle.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,678.43 +92.81 (+2.59%)

Dow Jones (US30) 29,490.36 +764.85 (+2.66%)

DAX (DE40) 12,209.48 +95.12 (+0.79%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 6,908.76 +14.95 (+0.22%)

USD Index 111.71 -0.41 (-0.37%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Tokyo Core CP (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

04 Oct

Global Sentiment Improves But Caution Lingers

By ForexTime

European markets flashed green on Tuesday, building on the previous session’s strong start to the final quarter of the year, as weakening US economic data raised hopes of a less aggressive stance by the Fed on rates. US futures are pointing to a higher open with the positive momentum from Europe potentially finding its way into Wall Street. Global equities could be offered further support if soft economic data fuels speculation around doves infiltrating central banks across the globe.

In the currency space, king dollar extended losses this morning as U.S Treasury yields dipped with the risk-on sentiment and softer US data. After clawing its way out of the abyss last week, sterling continues to recover, hitting a two-week high at 1.1430 this morning before paring back. A weaker dollar gave gold bugs the thumbs up to conquer $1700 while oil prices remain steady ahead of the OPEC + meeting on Wednesday.

In other news, Australia’s Reserve Bank surprised markets by raising interest rates by a smaller than expected 25 basis points this morning. Although the central bank had flagged in the past a possible slowdown in the pace of hikes, this surprise move sends an important message about the size of future hikes.

Despite the improving market sentiment, a sense of caution continues to linger in the air as investors brace for another busy week for global markets. The numerous speeches from Fed officials should keep market players well occupied ahead of the highly anticipated US jobs report on Friday. If hawks dominate the scene once again, this could fuel bets over more aggressive rate hikes by the Fed. Alternatively, any hint of more caution may stimulate speculation around the central bank adopting a softer stance on rates resulting in a weaker dollar.

All eyes on the US jobs report

Given how markets remain highly sensitive to anything relating to rate hikes, Friday’s non-farm payrolls report could set the tone for markets this month.

According to Bloomberg, consensus is expecting jobs growth to slow from 315k in August to 250k in September. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.7% while wage growth is seen hitting 0.3%. If the jobs data exceeds market expectations, this boosts the chances around the Fed firing another monetary bazooka in the form of a 75-basis point hike. Alternatively, a disappointing report may reduce the odds of another super-sized move, ultimately weakening the dollar while supporting equity bulls.

Currency spotlight – GBPUSD

GBPUSD has staged an incredible rebound over the past few days, continuing its bounce from the all-time low of 1.0350. Sterling has drawn strength from the government’s U-turn to cut the top-rate tax for higher earners and a softer US dollar. While prices could edge higher in the short term, sterling is not out of the woods yet. Concerns over rising inflation, the gloomy economic outlook, and political noise are likely to haunt investor attraction towards the British pound. Looking at the GBPUSD through a technical lens, prices could sink back to 1.0850 if 1.1300 proves to be unreliable support. If bulls can stay in the driving seat, the next key level of interest can be found at 1.1600.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold has kicked off the final quarter of 2022 on a positive note thanks to a softer dollar and subdued Treasury yields.

Market speculation around the Fed adopting a less aggressive approach on rate hikes has also sweetened appetite for zero-yielding gold. While prices may push higher over the next few days, the metal’s outlook will be influenced by the US jobs report on Friday.

Looking at the technical picture, the breakout above $1700 may open the doors towards $1724 and $1760, respectively. Should prices dip back under $1700, the next key levels of support can be found at $1680 and $1655.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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