Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 268

Oil declines amid rising US production. RBA raises interest rate by 0.25%

The US indices fell yesterday amid weakness in the technology sector and ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting, where a 0.75% interest rate hike is expected. At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.39%, while the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 0.75%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) dropped on Monday by 1.03%.

Nevertheless, experts believe the dollar’s gains could be limited if the Fed signals on Wednesday that the pace of rate hikes will slow down as it assesses the impact of its policy tightening. At the December meeting, federal funds futures forecast a 55% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike, down from 67% chance last Friday.

Famous companies reporting today are Pfizer (PFE), Toyota Motor (TM), AMD (AMD), BP (BP), Uber Tech (UBER), AIG (AIG), and Electronic Arts (EA).

Equity markets in Europe traded without a single dynamic yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.08%, French CAC 40 (FR40) dropped 0.10%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.51%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Monday with a 0.66% gain.

Eurozone GDP grew slightly better than expected by 0.2% in the third quarter, indicating a clear slowdown from the 0.8% growth in the second quarter. Germany and Italy beat expectations, growing 0.3% Q/Q and 0.5% Q/Q, respectively, while Spain and France grew by 0.2% QoQ. The annualized Eurozone inflation rate reached 10.7%, against expectations of 10.3% growth. The core consumer price level, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 5.0% from 4.8%. The purchasing managers’ composite index (PMI) showed a decline, with activity in all sectors gradually decreasing. Analysts believe a recession in the Eurozone is inevitable, and the next quarter will point to a significant drop in GDP.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised a rapid introduction of natural gas price subsidies to mitigate the impact of skyrocketing energy prices. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is at the center of an energy crisis engulfing the continent as Russia cuts gas supplies to the region and the country assembles a 200 billion euro emergency aid package. According to the Independent Natural Gas and Heating Commission, which presented its report Monday, about half of the money must be used to subsidize households and businesses.

Although Moscow has suspended its participation in a UN program to secure ships carrying grain from Ukraine amid the ongoing war, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said his country would continue a program brokered by the UN and Turkey in July to ensure an uninterrupted supply of food products to world markets.

The US is increasing its oil production, which puts downward pressure on oil quotes. Monthly government data showed that US oil production rose to nearly 12 million BPD in August, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic. The coronavirus outbreak in China is expanding and starting to affect other cities, dampening hopes for a recovery in oil demand.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.78%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 1.18%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 1.15%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its target interest rate by 25 basis points (BPS) to 2.85%, bringing interest rates to their highest level in 9 years. The Central Bank pledged to continue raising interest rates as necessary and will continue its data-driven approach. The RBA raised its inflation forecast for the year to 8% from 7.75%. Also, Australia’s GDP is now expected to grow by 3% in 2022, down from the previous forecast of 3.25%.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,871.98 −29.08 (−0.75%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,732.95 −128.85 (−0.39%)

DAX (DE40) 13,253.74 +10.41 (+0.079%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,094.53 +46.86 (+0.66%)

USD Index 111.58 +0.83 (+0.75%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks (m/m) at 10:20 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 22:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Energy Financial News

01 Nov

Market Mood Improves Ahead Of Fed Decision

By ForexTime

The next few days promise to be eventful and potentially volatile for financial markets thanks to key economic reports from major economies, corporate earnings, and crucial central bank meetings.

November has already kicked off on a positive note with European markets trading firmly higher, led by mining shares and robust earnings from British Petroleum which posted its second-highest quarterly profits ever. In Asia, shares flashed green amid the improving risk sentiment while US futures pointed to a positive start as traders looked ahead to the Fed rate decision on Wednesday. In the currency space, the dollar fell along with Treasury yields while sterling wobbled around 1.1500. Although gold has taken the opportunity to shine this morning as the greenback declines, the Fed meeting and US jobs report are likely to set the tone for direction in November.

In other news, the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked interest rates by 25bp for a second consecutive month while revising up its inflation forecast and downgrading its growth projections for 2022 and 2023. While the fierce war against inflation fuels recession fears, RBA doves are back in the building as the central bank steps away from aggressive rate hikes. This could hit the AUD which has weakened against almost every single G10 currency this quarter.

All eyes on the Fed meeting

The FOMC rate decision on Wednesday could rock financial markets.

Markets widely expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Given how such a move has already been priced into markets, much attention will be on the language in the statement and the press conference for clues on future monetary policy. Should the central bank strike a cautious tone and signal that future rate hikes could be smaller, this could weaken the dollar as doves enter the scene. We have already seen some central banks switch into a slower gear on rate rises with the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia two prime examples. A similar step down by the Fed would hit the mighty dollar as bets of aggressive rate hikes beyond November rapidly diminish. Traders will also have to contend with Friday’s monthly non-farm payrolls report which is expected to show solid job gains and still-low unemployment.

Talking technicals, the DXY remains in a healthy uptrend on the daily charts, but some cracks are forming. Another breakdown below 110.00 could signal a selloff towards 109.00 and lower. If prices can push back above 112.50, bulls could target 113.50.

Currency spotlight – Pound waits on BoE decision

Watch this space. GBPUSD could turn explosively volatile this week thanks to the Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings.

On Thursday, the Bank of England is likely to deliver what would be the biggest UK rate hike since 1989. With inflation at 10.1% and hitting levels not seen in 40 years, market players expect the central bank to join the 75bp hike club. However, sentiment towards the UK economy remains fragile with recent economic data including retail sales and manufacturing reports among others showing signs of a slowing economy. On top of this, the recent political drama over ex-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s controversial mini-budget has left a sour aftertaste with the new government on a mission to restore the UK’s fiscal credibility.

In which light, markets think the bank will hike rates by 75bp but signal that this is a one-off move. Such a development could fuel speculation around less aggressive hikes from December and into 2023. There is a possibility that the MPC disappoints markets with a 50bp hike given the state of the UK economy and fears that the country may already be in recession. Whatever the outcome on Thursday, it will certainly have a lasting impact on sterling.

Looking at GBPUSD, prices are trading above 1.1500 as of writing. Should this level prove to be reliable support, a move back towards 1.1750 and 1.1850 could be on the cards. Weakness below 1.1500 may open a path towards 1.1400 and 1.1200 respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold drew strength from a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields on Tuesday as investors braced themselves for the Federal Reserve meeting.

Although the central bank is widely expected to raise rates, gold could come out of this meeting smiling if the Fed hints of a slowdown in monetary policy in the future. Given how such a pivot could provide more room for gold bugs to fight back, prices would head north in the near term. Looking at technical levels, a breakout above $1655 could trigger a rise toward $1680 and $1700. Weakness below $1655 may open a path towards $1615 and $1600, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

31 Oct

Euro Remains Depressed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday, the final trading day in October, the market major is declining, balancing near 0.9940.

Active growth of the instrument stopped right after the European Central Bank last week lifted the interest rate to 2.00% annual. This was just the decision know long before, so on facts investors just took the profit.

The main event of this week will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. The is hardly any doubt that the interest rate will grow by 75 base points to 4.00% annual. Much depends on the comments of the Fed: investors need to understand whether the rate will keep growing at such speed.

EUR/USD volatility will grow on Wednesday.

On H4, the market performed a wave of growth to 1.0090. Today the market continues developing a correction. The level of 0.770 is likely to be reached. Then a wave of growth may start for 0.9920. Practically, a consolidation range is likely to form between these two levels. With an escape upwards, another structure of growth is likely to develop to 1.0440. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is under zero and keeps going down to new lows.

On H1, EUR/USD has completed a structure of a wave of decline to 0.9930. At the moment, the market has formed a consolidation area above it. We expect an escape downwards and a decline to 0.9766. After this level is reached, a link of growth might develop to 0.9930, from where the trend may continue to 1.0440. Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is headed downwards, to 50. Upon breaking this away, the trend should continue to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Oct

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, DOGE). Overview for 31.10.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The leading cryptocurrency is creeping down again. On Monday, main fluctuations are near 20,487 USD. To preserve the uptrend in force, the BTC needs to brace itself and secure above 21,500 USD. Until this happens, all movements will be inside a flat.

The most important event of this week and month is coming, and this is the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. With a probability of 81.4%, the market expects the regulator to lift the interest rate by 75 base points. 18.7% of investors count on an increase by 50 base points.

However, the main movements will be provoked not by the Fed’s decision but by its comments. Everyone is too interested in what is next to come? There is one more meeting left till the end of the year, and previously, the regulator planned to lift the rate at each meeting.

Seasonal cycles suggest that the BTC might keep growing this week, at least.

Money Fellows attracted 31 million USD

An Egyptian startup Money Fellows that works in the crypto market managed to gather 31 million USD at another round of financing. The company will allocate the money for designing new products and services, as well as for hiring new employees.

DOGE: best result of week

The copper coin DOGE demonstrated the best result of the week. Over 7 days, its price almost doubled. This let the coin rise to the 8th line of the rating of most popular cryptocurrencies. DOGE capitalisation grew to 15.54 billion USD.

BTC: 14 years since “White Paper” publication

On 31 October, it is 14 years since the BTC published its “White Paper” – a tech document that described the work principle of the peer-to-peer payment system. It is still unknown who is hiding behind the Satoshi Nakamoto penname.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

31 Oct

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 31.10.2022 (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair is pushing off the signal lines of the indicator, going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.1420 is expected, followed by growth to 1.1935. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.1225, which will mean further falling to 1.1130.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is declining inside a bearish channel. The instrument is going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1645 is expected, followed by falling to 1590. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1670, which will mean further growth to 1725.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is testing the Kijun-Sen line. The instrument is going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.3690 is expected, followed by falling to 1.3330. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.3845, which will mean further growth to 1.3955. The decline will be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the bullish channel and securing under 1.3535.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.10.31

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9963
Prev Close: 0.9964
% chg. over the last day: +0.01 %

Eurozone’s inflation data will be released today. General inflation is expected to hit a new high again, while core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) will remain about the same. Third-quarter GDP data will also be released and is expected to show modest growth. Still, most economists believe the bloc economy will enter the contractionary territory in the fourth quarter.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9897, 0.9873, 0.9835, 0.9755, 0.9601
Resistance levels: 1.0055, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price has dropped below the average lines, but the correction is close to the end. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but sellers’ pressure is weak due to divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered from the support level of 0.9897 or 0.9873, but with additional confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Sell deals may be considered from the resistance level of 1.0055, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9834 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.31:

– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1557
Prev Close: 1.1609
% chg. over the last day: +0.45 %

Most economists believe that the turmoil in the British market is largely solely due to British policy, not to a tightening of Fed policy and a strengthening of the dollar. However, the new UK government is creating positive sentiment for investors, temporarily returning confidence in the British currency. This positive sentiment will likely last at least until November 17, when the new budget and exit plan will be released.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1467, 1.1337, 1.1172, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.1698, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and buyers’ pressure remains. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1467 or 1.1337, but better after confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.1698, but it is also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1172 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 146.26
Prev Close: 147.46
% chg. over the last day: +0.82 %

The Japanese yen declined against the dollar on Friday after the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy and supported ultra-low interest rates again, while the dollar strengthened after US data showed that the core PCE Index remained at its peak. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that Japan will not raise the rates and that the country’s inflation rate will probably not reach the 2% target for many years. Kuroda also rejected the notion that the Bank of Japan’s yield ceiling was to blame for the yen’s recent sharp decline, reinforcing the view that the Central Bank will not use rate hikes to support the currency anytime soon. With the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates once again this week, pressure on the Japanese currency will resume.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 146.64, 145.50, 144.91, 144.19, 143.00
Resistance levels: : 148.64, 147.75, 148.64, 148.64, 150.00, 151.05

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become positive, and buyers’ pressure is coming back. Under such market conditions, buy trades may be sought on intraday time frames from the support of 146.64 or 145.50. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 148.64, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 150.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.31:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3561
Prev Close: 1.3604
% chg. over the last day: +0.32 %

Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.1% in September after a slight (+0.1%) increase in August. Growth in service-producing industries (+0.3%) was partially offset by a decline in goods-producing industries (-0.3%). Thus, although the Canadian economy is not showing rapid growth, it is not pointing to contraction either. Lower inflation will allow the Bank of Canada to be more flexible in its monetary policy planning. The Bank of Canada has already slowed the pace of interest rate increases to ease pressure on economic indicators.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3542, 1.35000, 1.3454
Resistance levels: 1.3597, 1.3679, 1.3795, 1.3855, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages, wide-volatility balance is formed. The MACD indicator has become positive, there is a slight buying pressure. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3679, but only after additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3542, but it is better after confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3855, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Oct

Central Banks need to slow the pace of interest rate hikes for financial stability

By JustMarkets

Economic data Friday showed that US labor costs rose significantly in the third quarter. Still, private sector wage growth slowed, indicating that inflation has either peaked or is close to it. This coincides with recent statements from Fed officials that the US Central Bank may be less aggressive in future Fed meetings. Hedge fund analysts agree and point out that the US Fed will be forced to slow the pace to avoid financial instability. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.49% (+5.37% for the week), and the S&P500 (US500) added 2.46% (+3.70% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) increased by 2.87% on Friday (+2.17% for the week).

Nearly half of economists believe the international impact of a strong dollar is very likely to affect the US economy over the next 18 months and affect monetary policy. Only 28% of economists believe that a stronger currency is unlikely to have any impact on the economy. The dollar has risen about 13% this year against other major currencies amid geopolitical tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which have reached a 40-year high. A stronger dollar tends to curb inflation by lowering the cost of imports and domestic production, as it raises export prices. Fed officials are expected to continue their campaign and raise rates another 75 basis points on Wednesday, but the rate of increase will slow down further. The latest forecast is for rates to reach 4.4% by the end of the year and 4.6% in 2023.

The third-quarter earnings season is halfway through, and the week ahead will test whether stocks can continue to withstand the disappointing earnings.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Friday but closed the week in positive territory. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.24% (+2.94% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.46% (+3.24% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.06% (+3.91% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) lost 0.37% (+1.12% for the week).

Friday’s inflation data showed new record highs for Germany, France, and Italy. Eurozone’s inflation data will be released today. Headline inflation is expected to return to a new high of 10.3% on an annualized basis, while core inflation (which excludes energy and food prices) will remain about the same.

Klaas Knot of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council spoke in favor of an interest rate hike of 50 or 75 basis points in December, but he added that a decision has not yet been made. The Dutch central banker, one of the region’s most hawkish officials, said the ECB is still in the process of returning the cost of borrowing to a neutral level, at which it neither stimulates nor constrains the economy. With Europe threatened by a recession, ECB officials declined to mention that rate hikes will continue over the next few meetings.

Gold prices fell last week despite a weaker US dollar and lower US Treasury yields as a rally in risky assets prompted traders to avoid defensive positions. But in terms of fundamentals, buying gold in the medium term looks like a promising scenario.

Asian markets mostly declined last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.47% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 6.49% last week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down 0.87% for the week.

China’s Central Bank governor promised to keep monetary policy “normal” in the near future amid an economic slowdown caused by repeated Covid outbreaks, a sharp slowdown in the real estate sector, and weakening external demand. China has the conditions to maintain a normal monetary policy and keep the yuan stable for an extended period of time. Experts believe that China will improve the stability of credit growth and continue reducing the cost of credit for businesses and individuals to maintain macroeconomic stability.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+16.96%), WTI oil (+3.92%), Brent oil (+3.01%), and platinum (+1.67%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Futures on lumber (-15.03%), coffee (-9.66%), cotton (-8.87%), palladium (-5.21%), gasoline (-4.28%), sugar (-4.08%) and wheat (-2.41%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,901.06 +93.76 (+2.46%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,861.80 +828.52 (+2.59%)

DAX (DE40) 13,243.33 +32.10 (+0.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,047.67 −26.02 (−0.37%)

USD Index 110.67 +0.08 (+0.07%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Oct

Bonds Weekly Speculator Bets led by Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (180,417 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (65,690 contracts), the Fed Funds (42,830 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (25,832 contracts), the Long US Bond (9,780 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (3,496 contracts)also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the 2-Year Bond (-14,084 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-2,695 contracts) also realizing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,016,242	0	-1,896,658	18	2,000,719	77	-104,061	82
FedFunds	1,710,395	60	72,351	49	-64,838	52	-7,513	41
2-Year	2,133,135	15	-349,596	12	421,363	96	-71,767	20
Long T-Bond	1,223,914	48	-76,559	60	47,904	28	28,655	75
10-Year	3,929,010	60	-247,748	35	296,692	57	-48,944	68
5-Year	4,087,748	56	-461,745	16	546,157	80	-84,412	58

Strength Scores led by US Long Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (59.7 percent) continues to lead the bonds category this week.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent), the 2-Year Bond (11.7 percent), 5-Year Bond (15.7 percent) and the Eurodollar (18.2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (43.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (15.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (34.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (59.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (42.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (40.6 percent)
Eurodollar (18.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.9 percent)

Eurodollar leads the weekly Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (18.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bond (16.0 percent), the 5-Year Bond (9.0 percent)and the US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (3.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-1.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
Eurodollar (18.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,896,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 180,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,077,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	65.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	40.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-1,896,658	2,000,719	-104,061
– Gross Longs:	638,484	5,275,368	577,900
– Gross Shorts:	2,535,142	3,274,649	681,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	76.9	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-21.8	54.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 72,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 42,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	68.8	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	72.6	2.1
– Net Position:	72,351	-64,838	-7,513
– Gross Longs:	273,129	1,177,282	27,698
– Gross Shorts:	200,778	1,242,120	35,211
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	52.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-3.8	18.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -349,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -335,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	83.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	63.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-349,596	421,363	-71,767
– Gross Longs:	151,517	1,773,452	159,922
– Gross Shorts:	501,113	1,352,089	231,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	95.7	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	-2.9	2.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -461,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 25,832 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -487,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	71.8	9.9
– Net Position:	-461,745	546,157	-84,412
– Gross Longs:	239,313	3,479,211	320,339
– Gross Shorts:	701,058	2,933,054	404,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	79.9	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-15.9	19.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -247,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -313,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	76.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	69.3	10.5
– Net Position:	-247,748	296,692	-48,944
– Gross Longs:	453,643	3,019,262	363,812
– Gross Shorts:	701,391	2,722,570	412,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	57.1	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-19.7	14.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -79,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	81.2	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	69.7	16.6
– Net Position:	-79,346	159,023	-79,677
– Gross Longs:	100,026	1,124,960	150,789
– Gross Shorts:	179,372	965,937	230,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	81.1	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	11.3	18.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -76,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	78.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	74.1	11.7
– Net Position:	-76,559	47,904	28,655
– Gross Longs:	84,406	954,865	171,735
– Gross Shorts:	160,965	906,961	143,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	27.7	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.6	0.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -351,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -354,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	81.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	60.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-351,022	307,021	44,001
– Gross Longs:	95,630	1,185,802	164,658
– Gross Shorts:	446,652	878,781	120,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	62.5	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-1.9	6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

28 Oct

Robotics-Driven Services Co. Posts 20% Revenue Gains in Q3

Source: Streetwise Reports (10/28/22)

Shares of Oceaneering International Inc. traded 16.5% higher yesterday after the diversified offshore engineering services and manufacturing firm reported Q3/22 financial results that included a 20% YoY increase in revenue and improved operating performance and profitability across all its business units.

After U.S. markets closed Wednesday, Oceaneering International Inc. (OII:NYSE), a global provider of engineered products, services, and robotic solutions for the offshore energy, aerospace, defense, and manufacturing industries, announced financial results for the third quarter of 2022 ended September 30, 2022.

The company reported that for Q3/22, it posted total revenue of US$559.7 million, compared to US$466.8 million in Q3/21. The firm provided a breakdown of revenue by business segment and indicated that its subsea robotics unit accounted for US$169.4 million, manufactured products were US$94.0 million, offshore projects group US$153.0 million, integrity management and digital solutions US$58.5 million and aerospace and defense technologies posted US$84.8 million.

Oceaneering International advised that for Q3/22, it recorded a net income of US$18.3 million, or US$0.18 per share, versus a net loss of US$7.4 million, or a net loss of US$0.07 per share in Q3/21.

The company added that adjusted net income for Q3/22 was US$23.7 million, or US$0.23 per share, and noted that the adjustments were the result of US$1.1 million in pre-tax adjustments related to foreign exchange losses and another US$4.4 million in discretionary tax adjustments pertaining to asset valuation and tax allowances.

The company stated that during Q3/22, it generated cash flow from operations of US$85.9 million, had a free cash flow of US$66.6 million, and ended the quarter with US$428 million in cash on its balance sheet.

The firm pointed out further that during Q3/22, its fleet of 250 remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) achieved a utilization rate of 67%, and each, on average, contributed revenue of US$8,468 per day. The company added that as of September 30, 2022, its Manufactured Products division had a backlog of US$365 million.

Oceaneering International’s President and CEO Roderick A. Larson commented, “Our third-quarter results were driven by improved offshore activity and pricing, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, which ticked up further during the quarter. We produced adjusted consolidated EBITDA of US$77.6 million, which exceeded our guidance and consensus estimates.”

“Offshore activity drove significant operating improvements in our energy businesses, which were led by our Subsea Robotics (SSR) and Offshore Projects Group (OPG) segments. In addition, increased manufacturing throughput led to improved operating margins in our Manufactured Products segment. We also saw a meaningful recovery in our government-focused businesses after experiencing the effects of negative timing during the second quarter of 2022,” Larson added.

The firm stated that it expects that revenues in Q4/22 will decline slightly or be on par with those registered in Q3/22. The company indicated that it estimates that the manufactured products group and ADTech revenues and profitability will be higher but will be offset by slightly lower revenues and operating profitability in its SSR, OPG, and IMDS segments, in part due to seasonality.

Oceaneering indicated that for FY/22, it estimates that adjusted EBITDA will be in the range of US$215-240 million.

The company advised that for FY/23, it anticipates higher levels of activity and improved performance in each of its primary business areas led by its SSR and OPG segments. The firm said that for FY/23, it expects consolidated EBITDA of US$260-310 million and free cash flow of over US$100 million.

The company indicated that going forward, it remains focused on safety, financial discipline, free cash flow generation, debt management, and growth. The firm stated that it will continue to look for opportunities to increase its prices and improve margins to benefit shareholders.

Oceaneering is a global technology firm based in Houston, Texas, that provides underwater, on land, and in space engineered services and products and robotic solutions to the offshore energy, aerospace, defense, entertainment, and manufacturing industries. The company employs more than 10,000 people and has operations in 24 countries.

The firm’s Subsea Robotics business segment offers remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) that are used to support offshore oil and gas drilling and vessel-based services such as subsea surveying, installation, construction, inspection, maintenance, and repair. The company fleet includes approximately 250 work-class ROVs. Its Manufactured Products segment manufactures distribution and connection systems, pipeline connections, and other hardware and repair systems for the energy industry.

Through its Offshore Projects Group, Oceaneering offers subsea installation, intervention, inspection, maintenance, and repair services, including ROV workover control systems and project management and engineering. The firm also provides asset integrity management, software, and analytical solutions for the bulk cargo maritime and energy industries through its Integrity Management & Digital Solutions segment. Lastly, the company’s Aerospace and Defense Technologies segment supports U.S. government agencies with engineering and related manufacturing assistance for use in defense and space exploration efforts.

Oceaneering International started yesterday with a market cap of around US$1.13 billion, with approximately 100.26 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 4.4%. OII shares opened almost 9% higher yesterday at US$12.22 (+US$0.99, +8.82%) over the previous day’s US$11.23 closing price. The stock traded yesterday between US$12.12 and US$13.92 per share and closed for trading at US$13.08 (+US$1.88, +16.47%).

Disclosures:
1) Stephen Hytha wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.

3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Financial News Stock Market News

28 Oct

Expert Says Buy Pharma Co. Stock ‘as Soon as Possible’

Source: Clive Maund (10/25/22)

Algernon Pharmaceuticals has entered into a clinical trial agreement with Yale and caught expert Clive Maund’s attention. In light of this, Maund reviews the company’s chart to tell you when he believes you should buy its stock.

Algernon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGN:CSE; AGNPF:OTCQB; AGN0:XFRA) got sold down further than we expected, making an unexpected further drop last week that took it down close to a trendline connecting a series of lows.

However, it now looks set to reverse to the upside, especially as this morning it came out with the news that it has entered into a clinical trial agreement with Yale University for a DMT Phase 2 Depression Study.

The fact that it has only 2 million shares in issue improves its potential for rapid recovery.

Anyone holding should therefore stay long, and it is rated a Buy again here. Those interested should aim to buy it as soon as possible after the open this morning.

Algernon Pharmaceuticals’s website.

Algernon Pharmaceuticals Inc. closed at CA$2.90, $2.09 on October 21, 2022.

CliveMaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Disclosures:
1) Clive Maund: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Algernon Pharmaceuticals Inc. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with Algernon Pharmaceuticals Inc. Please click here for more information.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

6) This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

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