On H4, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. Currently, the pair is going by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the correction will be 1.3465; later the pair may bounce off it and continue the decline. However, the price may drop to 1.3310 without pulling back to the resistance level.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
On H4, the currency pair has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern. Currently, the instrument is going by the signal in a descending wave. The goal of the pullback might be 0.6975. Upon testing the support level, the quotes may bounce off it and continue growing. However, the price may grow to 0.7100 and continue the uptrend without testing the support level.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
On H4, at the support level the pair has formed a Dodji reversal pattern. Currently, the pair is going by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the pullback might be 0.9295. Upon testing the resistance level, the pair may bounce off it and continue the downtrend. However, the quotes may fall to 0.9195 without correcting to the resistance level.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The new week started with a more cautious mood in the markets. Stock indices closed lower on Monday as investors refused to buy stocks ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision and further quarterly earnings. At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.77%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.96% yesterday.
According to analysts, the 25 basis point increase has already been accounted for by the market. The Federal Reserve is looking to slow its campaign against inflation but will signal further tightening. Officials note that unjustified easing will make it harder for them to restore price stability. Economists believe rising mortgage rates are cooling the housing market, and higher lending rates could make corporate investments more expensive. A stronger dollar hurts manufacturing by making exports more expensive and imports cheaper. And lower stock and bond prices can help curb consumer spending.
Stock markets in Europe mostly fell yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.21%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.12%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.25% on Monday.
Unexpected data were published yesterday in Spain and Germany. Spain’s harmonized consumer price index rose from 5.7% to 5.8% year-over-year, with a forecast of 4.9%. A rebound in fuel prices drove the result. The core inflation rate rose to a record 7.5% year-over-year, reinforcing fears of tighter price pressures. In Germany, fears of a recession returned. Preliminary GDP data showed that the economy shrank by 0.2% quarterly after rising by 0.5% in the third quarter. Annual GDP growth for 2022 was also revised downward to 1.8% from 1.9% year-over-year.
The flurry of recent data showing that Europe’s economy is starting to grow again has even raised hopes that the Eurozone will avoid a sharp recession. But ECB President Christine Lagarde has repeatedly stressed that rates will continue to rise at a steady pace, and the ECB is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points on Thursday. Most analysts also expect a 50 basis point hike in March, but as inflation begins to decline and GDP in key eurozone economies shrink, there are already signs of a debate among policymakers that the pace should slow down. The focus will be on Lagarde’s comments after the rate decision is announced to hint at the future direction.
In Switzerland, the KOF economic barometer rose for the second month in a row. Nevertheless, the indicator remains below its medium-term value. But the outlook for the Swiss economy at the start of the year is much less bleak than it was last fall. The sectors that are recovering the fastest are manufacturing, hospitality, and services.
Oil fell by 2% yesterday. It became known that Moscow would not adhere to the Russian oil price cap set by the West. The administration of President Vladimir Putin is allowing Russian oil companies to sell as many barrels of oil as they want at whatever price they can get. There is a huge discrepancy between the Russian government’s policy and actual activity in the physical oil market. Russia is trying to negotiate with OPEC+ countries to maintain price stability and to maintain higher oil prices. Much will depend on whether OPEC+ leaves production levels at current levels.
Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.19%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.76% after the holiday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 2.73%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) gained 0.25%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day 0.16% negative.
Kuroda’s ten-year tenure at the helm of Japan’s central bank comes to an end in April. Prime Minister. Kishida indicated last week that he would choose a new governor in February. Most Bank of Japan observers surveyed by Bloomberg see current deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya or his predecessor Hiroshi Nakaso as the most likely successors. In the latest Bloomberg poll of Bank of Japan observers, Amamiya was the favorite to replace Kuroda, with 25 votes out of 37 responses.
China’s business activity index rose for the first time in four months as the economic recovery from Covid Zero continues and the Lunar New Year holiday boosted travel and spending. The pace of activity recovery remains in focus, and one positive sign is that more than 300 million trips were made during the Lunar New Year, nearly 90% of pre-pandemic levels.
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,017.77 −52.79 (−1.30%)
Dow Jones (US30) 33,717.09 −260.99 (−0.77%)
DAX (DE40) 15,126.08 −23.95 (−0.16%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,784.87 +19.72 (+0.25%)
USD Index 102.23 +0.30 (+0.30%)
Important events for today:
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– French GDP (q/q) at 08:30 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Eight out of 10 high net worth (HNW) individuals have asked their financial advisers about including cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, into their portfolios over the last 12 months – despite the market experiencing a difficult year in 2022.
According to the results of a study by deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, 82% of clients with between £1m and £5m of investable assets sought advice on cryptocurrencies.
Nigel Green, the CEO and founder of deVere Group, notes: “In 2022, the crypto market delivered its worst performance since 2018, with Bitcoin, the headline-grabbing market leader, falling about 75% during the year.
“The price drops came as investors reduced their exposure to risk-on assets, including stocks and crypto, due to heightened concerns about inflation and slower economic growth.
“Yet against this backdrop of the so-called ‘crypto winter’, HNWs were consistently seeking advice from their financial advisers about including digital currencies into their portfolios.”
He continues: “Interestingly, this typically more conservative group were not deterred by the bear market and adverse market conditions. Instead, they were looking to either start including or increasing their exposure to crypto.
“This suggests that these high-net-worth clients are increasingly aware of the inherent characteristics of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin which has the core values of being digital, global, borderless, decentralized and tamper-proof.
“Wealthy investors understand that digital currencies are the future of money, and they don’t want to be left in the past.”
Many of these HNWs who were polled will also have seen a consistent surge in interest being expressed by institutional investors, including Wall Street giants, who bring further capital, influence and confidence to the sector.
In recent months, JPMorgan, like many other major legacy financial institutions, including Fidelity, BlackRock and New York Bank Mellon, have also begun to offer crypto-related services to their clients.
The deVere CEO believes that this momentum of interest is set to build further as the ‘crypto winter’ of 2022 is thawing.
“Bitcoin is on track for its best January since 2013 based on hopes that inflation has peaked, monetary policies become more favourable, and the various crypto-sector crises including high-profile bankruptcies are now in the rear-view mirror,” he says. “The world’s largest cryptocurrency is up over 40% since the turn of the year and this will not go unnoticed by HNW clients and others who want to build wealth for the future.”
Nigel Green concludes: “If HNWs were expressing such huge interest in the 2022 bear market, as market conditions steadily improve, they’re going to be amongst the first to capitalise in the forthcoming bull run.”
About:
deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.
Bion Environmental Technologies Inc. is creating a “mutually beneficial strategic relationship” with another company looking to improve the cattle industry.
Bion’s Gen3Tech technology transforms cattle waste into renewable natural gas, fertilizer, and clean water. BetterFedFoods LLC has developed a technology that uses algae to supplement cattle feed with Omega 3 EPA long-chain fatty acids.
Source: Stockwatch
Newsletter writer Clive Maund of CliveMaund.com said looking at Bion’s 20-year chart, he sees a “steady advance by the accumulation line over a long period.”
This “strongly suggests a positive resolution to the pattern — i.e., a major new bull market with a breakout from the entire base pattern being signified by the price advancing through the US$2.00 level,” he wrote on Jan. 16.
Maund rated the stock an immediate Buy, saying it “is considered to be a solid long-term investment.”
BetterFedFoods has made a “significant equity investment” in Bion, Bion said. The two companies will work over the next two to three months to determine how to leverage their individual strengths in the partnership.
The Catalyst: More Demand for Sustainable Beef
BetterFedFoods’ values fit Bion’s values, said Bion Chief Executive Officer Bill O’Neill.
“BetterFedFoods’ commitment to creating healthier feed, animals, and people is a perfect fit with our own vision,” he said. “Today’s consumers increasingly want products that are sustainable, transparent, and ‘better for you.’ Working with BetterFedFoods will help Bion and its partners check those consumer boxes.”
Over the last decade, BetterFedFoods has been incorporating algae in livestock feeding systems, improving their overall health and providing a higher feed-to-weight gain ratio, creating better marbling of the meat and reducing methane emissions from the animals.
Omega 3 also reduces joint inflammation, increases stress tolerance, improving respiratory issues, and reducing heart disease for animals — just like it does for humans.
“Aligning our goals (with Bion’s) makes perfect sense,” said Todd Hansen, BetterFedFoods’ chief executive officer.
A Sustainable System
The livestock industry creates more than 1.5 billion tons of manure annually, contributing to climate change and the excess nutrient contamination of surface waters and groundwater aquifers.
Bion’s platform transforms that pollution into revenue-producing renewable natural gas, fertilizer, and clean water. It both prevents pollution and recovers lost value simultaneously, and consumers get grain-fed and independently verified sustainable meat with a pedigree they can trace back to the source.
Company officials said meat produced through its system creates a truly sustainable product that also goes a long way toward eliminating the environmental impacts of meat production.
According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, livestock manure nutrients “have real value as a fertilizer” for farmers, gardeners, and landscapers. However, untreated manure from animal feeding operations can contaminate surface water with pathogens such as E. coli, hormones, antibiotics, and chemicals like nitrates, phosphorous, and ammonia, the Centers for Disease Control stated.
Untreated waste can contribute to greenhouse gases such as methane, cause algae blooms and dead zones in bodies of water, contaminate groundwater, and contribute to antibiotic resistance.
“The company is involved in the green technology space, which is a good area to be in with the climate change movement driving a lot of changes and developments,” Maund wrote.
The EPA is now saying it will look at strengthening regulations for large livestock farms. The agency didn’t commit to any changes but acknowledged needing more recent data.
Bion’s Gen3Tech uses a specially designed barn and separately housed treatment system to apply biological, thermal, and mechanical processes to animal waste, creating pipeline-quality natural gas, fertilizers, clean water, and clean air and water credits.
But the main product is blockchain-verified, USDA-certified, sustainable meat for the US$66 billion-a-year beef industry.
In a column last August, Maund said Bion is well-positioned.
“The company is involved in the green technology space, which is a good area to be in with the climate change movement driving a lot of changes and developments,” Maund wrote. “It certainly cannot be claimed that the company has not been preparing for the times that we now find ourselves in and the times ahead.”
About 44% of the company is held by management/insiders; the rest is retail.
The stock is covered by several newsletter writers, including Maund, Matt Badiali, and Chris Temple, editor of The National Investor. Click “See More Live Data” in the data box above to view more of what they are saying.
Bion has a market cap of US$79.14 million and 44,279,884 million shares outstanding, 21,841,554 million of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of US$1.75 and US$0.505.
1) Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with Bion Environmental Technologies Inc. Please click here for more information. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
3) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
4) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Bion Environmental Technologies Inc., a company mentioned in this article.
AUDUSD is testing the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 0.7005 is expected, followed by growth to 0.7315. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6930, which will mean further falling to 0.6840.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD is testing the resistance level. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.2350 is expected, followed by growth to 1.2685. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the ascending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.2245, which will mean further falling to 1.2135.
NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”
The currency pair is squeezed inside the Triangle pattern. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 0.6470 is expected, followed by growth to 0.6665. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the Triangle pattern. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6405, which will mean further falling to 0.6310. The growth can be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the Triangle pattern and securing above 0.6550.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Streetwise Reports sat down with Øyvind Schanke, the chief investment officer of TD Veen and the former investment officer of one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds as he shares his current focus.
While some investment companies focus solely on the bottom line, some have a much brighter goal in mind. And while money is still important to TD Veen, it is not the mission. Instead, TD Veen is a family-centered investment company with one goal in mind: to invest only in that which benefits society. We at Streetwise Reports were intrigued by TD Veen’s premise, so we sat down with its chief investment officer Øyvind Schanke to learn more about TD Veen and the companies it invests in.
Øyvind Schanke joined the company in 2020 after years of investment experience. Before working with TD, Veen Schanke spent almost 16 years at the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth fund, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, the last years as the CIO for asset management based in London.
Main Investment Positions
The public companies TD Veen invests in are listed below.
You can download a full list of their investment positions. However, no matter the investment, TD Veen was founded under the premise that people needed to invest in social entrepreneurship, so the company keeps a boutique list of companies under its list, with a special focus on the health and life science sectors, especially mental health.
Why TD Invests in Mental Health
While Schanke spoke positively about emergency care within Norway’s public health system, he pointed out an incredible need to increase the quality of preventative care in his country.
He said, “there is no cure, just a bandaid,” especially regarding addiction and other mental health disorders.
In fact, according to The Borgen Project, “about half of all people in Norway experience a mental health disorder at some point in their life.”
Not only are Norwegians experiencing higher rates of mental illness due to Covid-19, but the lack of light during the winter months can make things a lot worse by adding seasonal affective disorder on top of general issues.
Linda Geddes from The Atlantic gave an overview of this issue and spoke with those in Northern European countries to get their personal take on how the lack of light in winter months affects them here.
The main treatment for depression is currently therapy and antidepressants, which Norwegians take a lot of. However, while antidepressants can calm the symptoms of depression, they don’t go to the root of the problem. This is why the team at TD Veen saw an overarching need for more comprehensive mental health care within Norway and the world, so they put their money where their heart is and began investing in it — literally.
TD Veen first built a relationship with Atai Life Sciences NV (ATAI:NASDAQ), a mental-health-focused bio-pharmaceutical company headquartered in Berlin, Germany. This began in 2018, as Øyvind Schanke had a call with the company and decided he needed to learn more about the medicinal use of psychedelics in treating mental health disorders. He then met with the company in Oslo, where he was introduced to
Awakn Life Sciences Corp. (AWKN:NEO; AWKNF:OTCQB),a biopharma company using controversial drugs to treat alcohol use disorder and other addictions. Currently, Awakn is using ketamin in their clinics, with five clinics in total, two of which are in Norway. They are also in the middle of trials for MDMA.
Psychedelics a Burgeoning Market
While the use of psychedelics is a controversial practice, it is gaining more and more traction. Research and Markets predicted that the global psychedelic drugs market would reach US$10.75 billion by 2027. And this is not for recreational use but rather for its ability to aid in treating mental illness. A study from the Centre for Psychedelic Research at Imperial College London found that psilocybin, the active compound in magic mushrooms, could be just as effective as anti-depressants in a clinical setting.
In 2022, Netflix released a docu-series on the waves psychedelics have been making in the bio-pharma world titled “How to Change Your Mind.”
The third episode of the series focuses heavily on the history of MDMA, its effects, and how it could be used to treat both PTSD and addiction as the drug turns off the fear center of the brain, allowing for a patient and therapist to dig into deepest wounds without pain or fear.
“The unmet medical need and opportunity for innovative approaches to treatment is very high,” Maxim Equity Research’s Jason McCarthy wrote.
Overall, studies have shown the positive effects of MDMA on these patients, and this is one of the reasons TD Veen is now a proud investor in Awakn. Øyvind Schanke told Streetwise Reports, “We believe in combining the [MDMD] compound with therapy at Awakn, and that is our belief that it needs to happen . . . I know this is needed.”
It seems many analysts agree with him. In July, H.C. Wainright & Co. Senior Healthcare Analyst Patrick Trucchio noted that “Awakn is advancing MDMA-assisted therapy for AUD in Europe, which we estimate could have blockbuster drug potential based on the significant unmet medical need and evidence generated to-date pointing to the potential of MDMA-assisted therapy in a variety of mood disorders.”
Then in November, Maxim Equity Research’s Jason McCarthy wrote, “Considering that private addiction treatment comes with a 70%-80% fail rate and treatment can cost north of US$30K, the opportunity for Awakn to improve this model is significant.” He went on to say, “The unmet medical need and opportunity for innovative approaches to treatment is very high.”
Awakn currently has five main clinics in Norway, and both the company and TD Veen hope this will continue to expand.
What’s Next?
Going forward, TD Veen will continue to invest in companies that, in their eyes, improve the world. They aim to generate enough funds so that exits aren’t needed because the fewer exists, the better. In 2022, TD Veen only had four exits and invested in six new companies. As Schanke said, “We want to be the world’s best minority shareholder.”
TD Veen was founded by Tor Dagfinn Veen in 1986. According to the company, “Today, Tor Dagfinn and Tone Veen own 28% of the shares, while daughters Camilla and Silje Veen own 36% each.
TD Veen has US$250 million under management, and they do not currently take money globally but focus on their family-centered business model. They are headquartered in Stavanger, Norway, and no matter what they invest in, they will do so under their mantra: An investment is only good if it also benefits society.
Disclosures: 1) Katherine DeGilio wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Awakn Life Sciences Corp. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: Awakn Life Sciences Corp.Please click here for more information.
3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Awakn Life Sciences Corp., a company mentioned in this article.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index declined from 4.7% to 4.4%. This indicator is on the US Federal Reserve’s list of monitored inflation indicators and influences monetary policy. It is clear that inflationary pressures in the US are declining, and the peak of inflation is behind us. The next move is up to the US Fed. A 0.25% rate hike this week is pretty much a done deal. The only uncertainty remains as to when the Fed will make its last rate hike and take a long pause.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.0834, 1.0801, 1.0781, 1.0710, 1.0650, 1.0597, 1.0535
Resistance levels: 1.0882, 1.0926
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is forming a price range again, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, the sellers’ pressure remains, but it is weak. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0833 with confirmation in the form of a false breakdown on intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0882, but better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0801 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2023.01.30:
– Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Germany GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.2397
Prev Close: 1.2393
% chg. over the last day: -0.03 %
There will be a lot of economic data on the UK this week. The main event will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, where an interest rate hike of 0.5% is expected. The British pound has been holding steady during the last trading week, but economists are not optimistic about the prospects of the UK economy and forecast a decrease in the quotes in the near future. According to experts, the UK economy is already in recession, and raising the rate will only increase the negative pressure.
From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price forms a narrow price range. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and buying pressure is decreasing, with liquidity narrowing into a triangle. This often happens before an impulse movement. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2344 but with a confirmation in the form of a false breakdown. It is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.2413, but it is also better to confirm in the form of a reverse initiative because a false breakout has already occurred.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2263 support level and fixes above it, the downtrend will likely resume.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 130.21
Prev Close: 129.83
% chg. over the last day: -0.29 %
Despite good economic data last week showing US GDP and Michigan sentiment outperforming expectations, the USD/JPY quotes were unable to move above 131.00. This suggests that investors are anticipating dollar weakness ahead of this week’s interest rate decision. Also, last week the IMF suggested that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should be prepared to end economic stimulus quickly if inflation continues to rise and provide clear guidance to the market on any future policy changes.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is still bearish. The price is trading in the price corridor. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but within the day, sellers prevail. It is better to look for buy trades from the support level of 129.05, but only with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be searched for from the resistance level of 130.27 in case of a false breakout.
Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above the resistance level of 131.58, the uptrend will be renewed with a high probability.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3315
Prev Close: 1.3310
% chg. over the last day: -0.04 %
OPEC+ countries will meet this week. Delegates expect the advisory committee of ministers to recommend that production levels remain unchanged as global demand shows signs of potential recovery. Given current production and increasing Chinese demand, fundamentally, this could serve as the basis for a further rise in oil prices. Rising oil prices contribute to the strength of the Canadian currency.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence. The return of the price above the trend line may provoke a sharp rise in quotes. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered when the price returns above 1.3325, but with additional confirmation in the form of an impulse initiative. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance level of 1.3376, but only with confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3513, the uptrend will likely resume.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.08% (+1.61% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.25% (+2.32% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.95% on Friday (+4.03% for the week).
The latest inflation data showed an improvement in the trajectory of core commodity prices and rate-sensitive components. The Fed’s favorite measure of Core PCE inflation fell from 4.7% to 4.4%, reinforcing the sense that interest rates are nearing a peak. Now the focus of policymakers has shifted to rebalancing the labor market and taking all measures to bring inflation to the target level. Will the Fed be able to do a “soft landing” of the economy, and what is the likelihood of the scenario? The data show an improving inflation picture, an orderly rebalancing of the labor market, and a relatively healthy consumer — all of these currently support the case for a “soft landing” more than a “hard landing.”
Many large companies report this week, so volatility in the stock market will increase substantially. Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN), Apple Inc (AAPL), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), Caterpillar Inc (CAT), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA) are on the calendar.
Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.11% (+0.48% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.02% (+1.17% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.27% (+1.49% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.05% (-0.07% for the week).
The ECB will hold an important monetary policy meeting this week. The ECB is expected to raise the rate by 0.5%, and this scenario, according to economists, is already priced in. The rate is expected to peak in May 2023 at 3.25-3.5% (the current rate is 2.5%). Next, economists predict a pause until late 2023, when the deteriorating economy leads to a series of quarter-point cuts, which will begin in June 2024. Although the economy did better late last year, thanks to falling natural gas prices, government assistance to households and businesses, and easing supply disruptions, two-thirds of respondents still expect a shallow recession in the region.
The Bank of England will also hold an interest rate meeting this week, where a 0.5% increase is expected. This will raise the cost of borrowing from 3.5% to 4.0%. The rate is expected to peak in March 2023 at 4.25%. The overall inflation rate should also begin to decline at a faster pace starting in March as the impact of last year’s steep rise in energy bills fades, and the pressure on commodities and food begins to ease more noticeably. A rate cut is expected in early 2024.
Last week, Chinese markets celebrated the Lunar New Year. Economists predict that this will give a boost to optimism about oil demand ahead of this week. Early data released from China showed an increase in tourism spending and box office receipts with outbound travel in the first six days of the Lunar New Year, up 120% compared to the same period last year. This will serve to bolster markets’ confidence in the world’s largest oil importers moving forward. Also, this week is the OPEC+ meeting. Delegates expect the advisory committee of ministers to recommend that production levels remain unchanged as global demand shows signs of potential recovery. Given current production and increasing Chinese demand, fundamentally, this could serve as the basis for further gains in oil prices.
Asian markets mostly rallied last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.87% over the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade all week due to Chinese New Year celebrations, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 5.46%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) decreased by 2.67%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week up by 0.79%.
In the commodities market, lumber futures (+14.93%), coffee (+9.3%), sugar (+6.64%), and cocoa (+1.95%) showed the biggest gains last week. Natural gas futures (-10.11%), heating oil (-8.07%), palladium (-6.8%), WTI oil (-2.77%), platinum (-2.75%), and gasoline (-2.38%) showed the biggest drops.
According to strategists at Global Goldman Sachs, a key element of Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy, known as yield curve control (YCC), has been the target of growing market skepticism in recent months, raising the possibility that the country may eventually abolish it entirely. The Bank of Japan originally introduced the YCC in September 2016 to prevent deflationary risks and to meet its 2% inflation target. But now, a number of factors, including the risk of inflation well above BOJ expectations, the prospect of higher wage growth, the deteriorating functioning of Japan’s government bond market, and the impending transition to a new BOJ governor, make a course change possible. The Bank of Japan may make further adjustments to the YCC as early as its next monetary policy meeting (MPM) in March.
According to Beijing University estimates, the number of Covid infections in China peaked in January. The subsequent higher level of immunity among the general population means that the secondary waves should have a smaller impact in terms of the number of severe cases. A recovery in Chinese consumption will be real but moderate. The housing market will face the prospect of a slower recovery than consumption or broad domestic demand.
S&P 500 (F) (US500) +4,070.56 +10.13 (+0.25%)
Dow Jones (US30) 33,978.08 +28.67 (+0.084%)
DAX (DE40) 15,150.03 +17.18 (+0.11%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,765.15 +4.04 (+0.052%)
USD Index 101.92 +0.08 (+0.08%)
Important events for today:
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini
The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (17,827 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (647 contracts) also showing a positive week.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were MSCI EAFE-Mini (-5,924 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,628 contracts), Russell-Mini (-4,486 contracts), Nikkei 225 (-887 contracts) and the VIX (-794 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (76 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (61 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (55 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (17 percent).
Strength Statistics: VIX (76.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.5 percent) S&P500-Mini (17.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (14.2 percent) DowJones-Mini (28.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (27.3 percent) Nasdaq-Mini (60.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (63.5 percent) Russell2000-Mini (30.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (32.9 percent) Nikkei USD (55.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (59.3 percent) EAFE-Mini (2.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.7 percent)
VIX & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (21 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (4 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The Nasdaq-Mini (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-24 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics: VIX (20.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (15.3 percent) S&P500-Mini (3.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-4.3 percent) DowJones-Mini (3.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.5 percent) Nasdaq-Mini (-24.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-19.1 percent) Russell2000-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.1 percent) Nikkei USD (-10.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.1 percent) EAFE-Mini (-23.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-26.2 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,355 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.
VIX Volatility Futures Statistics
SPECULATORS
COMMERCIALS
SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:
17.9
56.0
6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:
35.8
36.3
8.4
– Net Position:
-53,149
58,259
-5,110
– Gross Longs:
52,816
165,673
19,828
– Gross Shorts:
105,965
107,414
24,938
– Long to Short Ratio:
0.5 to 1
1.5 to 1
0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):
76.0
23.9
66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):
Bullish
Bearish
Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:
20.6
-18.2
-12.7
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -208,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -226,818 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics
SPECULATORS
COMMERCIALS
SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:
12.4
73.4
12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:
22.7
63.4
11.8
– Net Position:
-208,991
202,765
6,226
– Gross Longs:
250,474
1,485,629
244,122
– Gross Shorts:
459,465
1,282,864
237,896
– Long to Short Ratio:
0.5 to 1
1.2 to 1
1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):
17.5
77.3
27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):
Bearish-Extreme
Bullish
Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:
3.9
-1.3
-2.3
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,613 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.
Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics
SPECULATORS
COMMERCIALS
SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:
27.2
50.9
17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:
40.0
35.1
20.8
– Net Position:
-9,966
12,227
-2,261
– Gross Longs:
21,106
39,500
13,893
– Gross Shorts:
31,072
27,273
16,154
– Long to Short Ratio:
0.7 to 1
1.4 to 1
0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):
28.3
73.5
29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):
Bearish
Bullish
Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:
3.9
-11.6
28.0
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,633 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.
Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics
SPECULATORS
COMMERCIALS
SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:
22.0
63.4
12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:
31.2
49.8
16.3
– Net Position:
-25,261
37,079
-11,818
– Gross Longs:
60,241
173,611
32,846
– Gross Shorts:
85,502
136,532
44,664
– Long to Short Ratio:
0.7 to 1
1.3 to 1
0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):
60.9
49.3
29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):
Bullish
Bearish
Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:
-24.8
30.7
-10.3
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -67,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,915 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.
Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics
SPECULATORS
COMMERCIALS
SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:
8.9
83.7
6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:
24.8
69.2
4.7
– Net Position:
-67,401
61,283
6,118
– Gross Longs:
37,737
354,541
26,065
– Gross Shorts:
105,138
293,258
19,947
– Long to Short Ratio:
0.4 to 1
1.2 to 1
1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):
30.3
65.8
45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):
Bearish
Bullish
Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:
-2.1
2.0
-0.1
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,825 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.
Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics
SPECULATORS
COMMERCIALS
SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:
19.2
63.8
16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:
51.6
25.7
22.7
– Net Position:
-4,712
5,546
-834
– Gross Longs:
2,786
9,279
2,461
– Gross Shorts:
7,498
3,733
3,295
– Long to Short Ratio:
0.4 to 1
2.5 to 1
0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):
55.1
57.4
17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):
Bullish
Bullish
Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:
-10.0
21.0
-26.1
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,278 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics
SPECULATORS
COMMERCIALS
SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:
6.5
89.8
3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:
15.5
82.7
1.2
– Net Position:
-34,202
27,075
7,127
– Gross Longs:
24,429
339,047
11,492
– Gross Shorts:
58,631
311,972
4,365
– Long to Short Ratio:
0.4 to 1
1.1 to 1
2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):
2.4
91.8
78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):
Bearish-Extreme
Bullish-Extreme
Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:
-23.7
26.8
-21.1
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has broken through the resistance line. The quotes are now expected to rise above 8/8 (87.50) and later reach the resistance level of +2/8 (90.62). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 7/8 (85.94). In this case, the quotes may drop to 5/8 (82.81).
On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms the uptrend and increases the probability of further growth.
S&P 500
On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates an uptrend. A divergence has formed on the RSI, being a signal for a correction to start. As a result, a bounce off 4/8 (4062.5) should be expected, followed by falling of the support level of 2/8 (3906.2). The scenario can be cancelled by an upwards breakaway of the resistance level. In this case, the quotes might keep growing and reach 5/8 (4141.6).
On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
