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Nasdaq correction: Is tech sell-off an opportunity?

By George Prior

Shrewd investors will use the tech sell-off as a buying opportunity as Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell into correction territory, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.

The analysis from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as the Nasdaq, alongside the other main US and global indexes, comes under pressure from disappointing third-quarter results from Big Tech companies, high Treasury yields, higher-for-longer interest rates, and recession fears.

A correction happens when an index falls more than 10%, but less than 20%, from its most recent closing high.

He notes: “This dramatic sell-off is largely focused on the Nasdaq and tech stocks, which investors feel would be hit hardest by spiking interest rates.

“The Nasdaq, currently down more than 12% from its 2023 high, meaning it’s firmly in correction territory, has also been impacted by disappointing earnings recently out from the Big Tech titans.”

Last week, Meta slid 3.7% on Thursday after the Facebook parent company reported that advertising revenue had been weak.

Google-parent Alphabet also slid, falling by 9.5%, after the company fell short in its cloud business. It’s the largest decline for the stock since March 2020. Shares fell another 2.7% on Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, Apple fell by 2.5%. Amazon, despite reporting strong results, was down 1.5%.

The tech sell-off is spooking some, while some “shrewd investors will be actively using this as an important buying opportunity” for three main reasons.

“First, the AI Race is intensifying, as firms are racing to lead in the development, deployment, and utilisation of artificial intelligence technologies.

“It is going to reshape whole industries, create new ones, and fuel innovation beyond what we can currently imagine.

“All this AI needs enormous amounts of computing power, which is a path that leads companies directly to the likes of Microsoft, Google and Amazon,” says Nigel Green.

“Second, tech companies are known for their ability to pivot and adapt to changing market conditions. They’re well-equipped to weather the storm of rising interest rates and adjust their strategies to maintain profitability and relevance.

“Third, the market fears are presenting opportunities to purchase high-quality tech companies at a lower cost, allowing investors to potentially benefit from capital appreciation when the market rebounds.”

As ever, a well-balanced investment portfolio should be diversified across various asset classes, including tech stocks. Diversification helps spread risk and can provide a buffer against the impact of sell-offs in specific sectors.

The deVere CEO concludes: “Like those which have gone before it, this tech sell-off will provide an opportunity for investors to selectively acquire tech stocks with solid fundamentals and growth potential.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Financial News Stock Market News

30 Oct

Japan is setting the stage for a monetary policy review. Falling tech companies are dragging the broad market

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.76%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.76%. Stock indices continued to fall yesterday due to weak reports from major technology companies. Shares of Meta Platforms (META) fell more than 5% after weak ad revenue. Meanwhile, shares of Alphabet (GOOG) fell another 2.6%, complementing Wednesday’s 9.28% drop amid a disappointing cloud computing revenue report. Amazon (AMZN) reported third-quarter results that beat Wall Street forecasts as growth in the company’s cloud business continues to stabilize. But the stock price was barely affected by the report.

Stocks also declined yesterday due to tensions in the Middle East following a report that Israel conducted a limited tank invasion of the Gaza Strip before withdrawing troops. Markets expect an all-out ground attack by Israel, which could lead to an expansion of the war to include Hezbollah.

The US economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, with households and construction contributing significantly to growth. However, the unfavorable factors facing the economy and the household sector in particular are intensifying, so economists expect growth to slow to 1.5% in the last three months of the year. Also strong is the 4.7% rise in US durable goods orders for September, which is much stronger than expectations of rising by 1.9%. US weekly jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 210,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market compared to expectations for a rise to 207,000.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.38% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.81%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left key rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with market expectations: the deposit rate at 4.00% and the main refinancing rate at 4.50%. Markets had expected the ECB to suspend its rate hike regime on Thursday, given the weakness in the eurozone economy and the recent rise in European bond yields. There is only a 5% chance of an ECB rate hike at the December meeting, but markets are forecasting an ECB rate cut in 2024.

Natural gas prices rose on Thursday amid a bullish EIA report and forecasts of colder-than-normal weather for next week. Natural gas prices received support from global supply concerns after Chevron shut down a natural gas field in Israel over security concerns related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. As a result of the supply cut, Egypt said it was reviewing plans to export LNG to Europe.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.14%, FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday negative by 0.61%. Uncertainty over the war between Israel and Hamas and rising yields led Asian indices lower this week, while anticipation of a series of central bank meetings next week also made investors largely risk-averse.

With the Bank of Japan conducting another FX intervention yesterday, markets expect the BoJ to consider a change in yield curve management policy next week with an adjustment to the outlook. The latest data showed that Tokyo’s inflation rose more than expected in October, indicating that inflation is picking up again in the country and could lead to a more hawkish bias from the BoJ at its meeting next Tuesday.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,137.23 −49.54 (−1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,784.30 −251.63 (−0.76%)

DAX (DE40) 14,731.05 −161.13 (−1.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,354.57 −59.77 (−0.81%)

USD Index 106.65 +0.12 (+0.11%)

News feed for 2023.10.27:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Producer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Oct

Trade of the Week: Can SPX500_m recover from technical correction?

By ForexTime

S&P 500 is now 10% below its end-July peak; set for third straight monthly drop
Relief for equity bulls may depend on 4 key events in first 3 days of November
Events watchlist: US Treasury announcement, FOMC decision, Apple earnings, US jobs report
Current technical pullback may be short-lived; bulls need fundamental boost
S&P 500 may see third consecutive weekly move of over 2%

The S&P 500 has entered a technical correction, which is when an asset’s price falls by over 10% from a recent peak.

Note that the SPX500_m posted a closing price on Friday (October 27th) that was 10.3% lower than its closing price registered on July 31st (its year-to-date high).

Furthermore, the SPX500_m is set to post a third straight month of declines – something not seen since Q1 2020 at the onset of the pandemic.

Here’s how this blue-chip stock index has fared recently:

August: down 1.77%
September: down 4.87%
October so far (as of market’s close on Friday, October 27th): down 4%

Amidst such a gloomy backdrop, hopes for an SPX500_m rebound this week are set to rest on these 4 major events:

1) Wednesday, November 1st: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

This is when the US government reveals how much new debt it has to sell to markets to keeping funding its budget.

To underscores the sheer importance of this upcoming announcement for global markets, note how the prior quarterly refunding announcement on August 2nd sparked a rout in US bond markets, setting 10-year US Treasury yields on the way to hitting 5% for the first time since 2007!

NOTE: Yields rise with bond prices fall.

At the same time, the S&P 500 has been on a steady decline since that last announcement in early August.

This is because, higher yields on US Treasuries (deemed to be the “safest” investment in the world) makes riskier assets, such as stocks, less appealing.

For this week’s announcement, markets expect US$114 billion worth of securities to be outlined for sale by the US Treasury.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

A higher-than-expected figure (US Treasury intends to sell more bonds than markets expect) could translate into another leg up for US Treasury yields, and perhaps extend the drop seen in the SPX500_m.
A lower-than-$114 billion number revealed by the US Treasury, or efforts to subdue its refunding costs, may offer some relief for SPX500_m.

2) Wednesday, November 1st: FOMC rate decision

To be clear, the Fed is roundly expected to leave its benchmark rates unchanged this week.

Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also set to reiterate his “higher for longer” message, which is something that markets are fully aware of.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

If Chair Powell can strike a more hawkish tone, perhaps going into more detail as to just how much “longer” the Fed will keep its benchmark rates elevated, that could spark more declines for the SPX500_m.
However, if Chair Powell were to close the door on any further rate hikes, or perhaps even concede that the first Fed rate cut may actually arrive sooner than expected (markets currently predict it’ll happen in June 2024), that could help the SPX500_m recover.

3) Thursday, November 2nd (after US markets close): Apple earnings

Apple has a market cap of US$2.63 trillion, making it the world’s most valuable company.

Apple alone accounts for about 7% of the total S&P 500, making it the largest stock on this benchmark index that is tracked by our SPX500_m.

Given Apple’s sheer size, how markets react to its earnings would have a large influence over how the S&P 500 performs.

Keep in mind that Apple is facing its longest sales slump in over 20 years, and is now facing slowing sales of its iPhone 15 in China.

NOTE: China accounts for about 20% of Apple’s total revenues.

Hence, both its backward-looking Q4FY23 numbers, as well as forward-looking statements especially around Chinese sales, could dictate how Apple’s share prices react.

Also, Apple’s share price is expected to move by 3.77%, either upwards or downwards, on Friday, November 3rd – the day after the company unveils its financial results for the July-September period (the fourth quarter of the company’s 2023 fiscal year).
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

Better-than-expected earnings out of Apple, or if the company sounds optimistic about a turnaround in China, could help pull the SPX500_m out of a technical correction.
Disappointing Apple earnings and/or more concerns about a prolonged sales slump, could push the SPX500_m deeper into a technical correction.

4) Friday, November 3rd: US jobs report

As is the case on the first Friday of most months, markets are eagerly anticipating the tier-one US nonfarm payrolls report.

Here are the current forecasts for some of October’s key figures:

Headline NFP number: 190,000 new jobs added to the US labour market in October
(this would be its lowest tally since June 2023’s 105,000 figure)
Unemployment rate: 3.8%
(this would match September’s unemployment rate)
Average hourly earnings: 4% year-on-year (October 2023 vs. October 2022)
(this would be slightly lower than September’s 4.2% year-on-year number)
Average hourly earnings: 0.3% month-on-month (October 2023 vs. September 2023)
(this would be slightly faster than September’s 0.2% month-on-month number)

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

Evidence of a stronger-than-expected US jobs report may indeed allow the Fed to maintain its benchmark rates “higher for longer”, or perhaps even pave the way for one more 25-basis point hike in this cycle.
Such expectations could heap more downward pressure on the SPX500_m.
Cracks showing in the US labour market, suggesting that the world’s largest economy is bearing the brunt of all those Fed rate hikes since last year, may seal the door shut on a further Fed rate hike, and potentially pave the way for a sooner-than-expected Fed rate cut,
Such expectations may spark joy among SPX500_m bulls (those hoping prices will go up).

From a technical perspective …

At the time of writing, the SPX500_m is seeing a technical rebound, as its 14-day relative strength index attempts to recover from the 30 line which denotes “oversold” conditions.

However, this technical rebound may prove short-lived, and bulls would need a fundamental catalyst to push the SPX500_m higher going into November.

POTENTIAL RESISTANCE:

4152.2: lower bound of downtrend since July
4200: psychologically-important level which had repelled bulls on several occasions in 1H23
(also, 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level from October 2022- July 2023 ascent)
200-day simple moving average (SMA)

POTENTIAL SUPPORT:

4106: intraday low on Friday, October 27th
4052.2: mid-way (50 Fibonacci retracement level) from October 2022- July 2023 ascent

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

29 Oct

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Metals Speculator Bets led higher by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (36,647 contracts) with Copper (5,129 contracts), Silver (4,586 contracts), Steel (297 contracts) and Palladium (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Platinum with a small decrease of -829 contracts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	463,476	19	149,385	43	-165,873	60	16,488	22
Silver	123,980	12	24,332	53	-34,570	52	10,238	23
Copper	224,704	62	-20,760	13	21,401	89	-641	14
Palladium	22,459	100	-11,240	2	11,085	98	155	51
Platinum	84,610	93	-480	14	-4,832	83	5,312	39

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (77 percent) and Silver (53 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (43 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (2 percent), Copper (13 percent) and Platinum (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (26.7 percent)
Silver (53.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.4 percent)
Copper (12.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (8.5 percent)
Platinum (14.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.4 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (77.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.3 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) and Silver (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-17 percent) currently leads the downside trend scores with Copper (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.1 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.1 percent)
Copper (-7.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-16.5 percent)
Platinum (-16.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.9 percent)
Palladium (-3.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.1 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 149,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 36,647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	22.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	58.7	5.5
– Net Position:	149,385	-165,873	16,488
– Gross Longs:	251,469	106,180	42,129
– Gross Shorts:	102,084	272,053	25,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	59.9	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-8.1	-11.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.8	30.9	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	58.8	10.7
– Net Position:	24,332	-34,570	10,238
– Gross Longs:	51,860	38,321	23,527
– Gross Shorts:	27,528	72,891	13,289
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	52.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-3.1	-21.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	39.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	30.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-20,760	21,401	-641
– Gross Longs:	71,848	88,951	14,933
– Gross Shorts:	92,608	67,550	15,574
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.9	89.4	14.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	9.5	-19.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	27.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	33.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-480	-4,832	5,312
– Gross Longs:	46,048	23,554	9,166
– Gross Shorts:	46,528	28,386	3,854
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	83.5	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	15.6	-4.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	56.9	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.4	7.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-11,240	11,085	155
– Gross Longs:	4,800	12,783	1,852
– Gross Shorts:	16,040	1,698	1,697
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	97.6	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	2.0	12.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	83.2	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	57.0	1.6
– Net Position:	-5,469	5,571	-102
– Gross Longs:	2,300	17,678	246
– Gross Shorts:	7,769	12,107	348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.5	23.4	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	1.5	5.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

29 Oct

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (147,378 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (122,184 contracts), the Fed Funds (89,836 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (62,572 contracts) and US Treasury Bonds (46,218 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-69,613 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,704 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2,065 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,262,756	96	283,813	87	-284,065	13	252	88
FedFunds	2,014,709	90	-205,834	25	226,924	78	-21,090	50
2-Year	4,207,274	100	-1,424,312	0	1,297,860	100	126,452	96
Long T-Bond	1,366,758	80	-136,238	40	92,123	43	44,115	81
10-Year	4,626,649	84	-563,362	28	467,001	65	96,361	94
5-Year	5,571,039	91	-1,008,903	18	946,801	79	62,102	87

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (87 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (40 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (38 percent) come in as the next highest in the strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (24.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (5.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (18.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (13.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (39.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (24.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (37.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (38.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (87.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (83.3 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-20 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-4.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-9.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (17.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-19.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (18.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (5.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (6.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-2.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-3.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 283,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 62,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 221,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	56.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	59.0	0.4
– Net Position:	283,813	-284,065	252
– Gross Longs:	2,097,645	5,767,009	39,391
– Gross Shorts:	1,813,832	6,051,074	39,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	12.6	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	1.8	1.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -205,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 89,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -295,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	74.8	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	63.5	2.7
– Net Position:	-205,834	226,924	-21,090
– Gross Longs:	160,615	1,506,971	33,662
– Gross Shorts:	366,449	1,280,047	54,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	78.0	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	6.8	-21.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,424,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -69,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,354,699 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	82.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	51.2	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,424,312	1,297,860	126,452
– Gross Longs:	429,978	3,452,942	267,147
– Gross Shorts:	1,854,290	2,155,082	140,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	12.6	6.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,008,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 122,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,131,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	82.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	65.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-1,008,903	946,801	62,102
– Gross Longs:	524,737	4,567,066	395,064
– Gross Shorts:	1,533,640	3,620,265	332,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	78.8	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-0.6	-3.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -563,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 147,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -710,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	77.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	66.9	7.4
– Net Position:	-563,362	467,001	96,361
– Gross Longs:	542,324	3,562,693	438,802
– Gross Shorts:	1,105,686	3,095,692	342,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	65.3	94.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-29.0	15.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -249,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -241,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	77.4	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	62.0	13.5
– Net Position:	-249,869	304,036	-54,167
– Gross Longs:	194,392	1,523,392	212,339
– Gross Shorts:	444,261	1,219,356	266,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	99.4	81.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	15.1	19.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -136,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 46,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -182,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	77.0	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	70.2	10.6
– Net Position:	-136,238	92,123	44,115
– Gross Longs:	93,736	1,051,787	189,136
– Gross Shorts:	229,974	959,664	145,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	43.5	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-21.6	3.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -363,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -361,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	82.9	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	61.1	9.4
– Net Position:	-363,546	338,820	24,726
– Gross Longs:	92,655	1,288,162	170,435
– Gross Shorts:	456,201	949,342	145,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	64.2	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-2.4	-7.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

29 Oct

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & the VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was a big jump by the S&P500-Mini (73,363 contracts) with the VIX (1,351 contracts), the Russell-Mini (1,301 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (127 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were led this week by the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,651 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,280 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-749 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,158,452	17	10,185	66	-34,736	35	24,551	47
Nikkei 225	15,326	14	-2,128	52	695	40	1,433	46
Nasdaq-Mini	253,055	39	2,697	43	-4,366	39	1,669	74
DowJones-Mini	104,581	72	-35,960	0	39,649	99	-3,689	26
VIX	344,318	44	-21,594	95	26,058	3	-4,464	74
Nikkei 225 Yen	53,712	42	7,280	57	9,599	37	-16,879	53

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (95 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (66 percent) were the leaders for the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (52 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (0 percent) was at the lowest strength level and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (95.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (0.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (61.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (51.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.9 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (19 percent), the VIX (12 percent) and the Russell-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-19 percent) coming in as the next lowest market.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (11.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (13.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (18.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-51.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-52.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (15.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-18.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-14.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	47.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	40.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-21,594	26,058	-4,464
– Gross Longs:	88,500	163,682	24,682
– Gross Shorts:	110,094	137,624	29,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.3	2.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-9.4	-18.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 73,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	72.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	74.0	10.4
– Net Position:	10,185	-34,736	24,551
– Gross Longs:	282,604	1,562,074	248,407
– Gross Shorts:	272,419	1,596,810	223,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	35.1	47.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-16.8	-1.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	65.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	27.1	13.9
– Net Position:	-35,960	39,649	-3,689
– Gross Longs:	25,159	68,034	10,893
– Gross Shorts:	61,119	28,385	14,582
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.9	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.1	47.8	-20.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	56.0	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	57.7	14.3
– Net Position:	2,697	-4,366	1,669
– Gross Longs:	69,019	141,589	37,947
– Gross Shorts:	66,322	145,955	36,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	39.1	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	6.6	3.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	79.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	71.2	4.6
– Net Position:	-44,171	44,537	-366
– Gross Longs:	72,617	413,481	23,620
– Gross Shorts:	116,788	368,944	23,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	55.5	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-8.1	-15.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	70.2	24.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	65.6	14.7
– Net Position:	-2,128	695	1,433
– Gross Longs:	884	10,754	3,688
– Gross Shorts:	3,012	10,059	2,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.8	40.1	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	9.8	12.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	90.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	82.7	2.2
– Net Position:	-30,499	28,700	1,799
– Gross Longs:	25,471	352,594	10,247
– Gross Shorts:	55,970	323,894	8,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	75.4	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-24.6	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

29 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (30,388 contracts) with Coffee (18,396 contracts), Corn (14,274 contracts), Soybeans (9,349 contracts), Wheat (9,296 contracts and Cocoa (5,528 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-21,450 contracts) with Cotton (-10,557 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,666 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,806 contracts) and Sugar (-3,264 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,628,044	21	300,765	41	-340,958	59	40,193	60
Gold	463,476	19	149,385	43	-165,873	60	16,488	22
Silver	123,980	12	24,332	53	-34,570	52	10,238	23
Copper	224,704	62	-20,760	13	21,401	89	-641	14
Palladium	22,459	100	-11,240	2	11,085	98	155	51
Platinum	84,610	93	-480	14	-4,832	83	5,312	39
Natural Gas	1,211,450	51	-70,272	47	51,221	57	19,051	25
Brent	127,094	8	-38,171	37	34,548	63	3,623	60
Heating Oil	322,791	45	31,988	81	-51,471	28	19,483	63
Soybeans	814,726	63	36,454	5	-24,483	88	-11,971	75
Corn	1,401,898	27	-48,280	11	83,034	90	-34,754	83
Coffee	199,646	18	18,208	46	-18,113	58	-95	11
Sugar	857,661	38	224,695	72	-271,696	26	47,001	64
Wheat	435,685	86	-59,947	24	56,978	74	2,969	80

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (89 percent) and Sugar (72 percent) led the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (61 percent), Coffee (46 percent) and Live Cattle (40 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (5 percent), Corn (11 percent) and Lean Hogs (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (71.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (73.1 percent)
Coffee (46.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (27.2 percent)
Soybeans (5.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (41.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (43.7 percent)
Live Cattle (40.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (63.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (17.4 percent)
Cotton (25.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (33.7 percent)
Cocoa (88.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (82.9 percent)
Wheat (24.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (17.6 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (36 percent) and Soybean Meal (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (6 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-39 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-22 percent), Soybeans (-19 percent) and Lean Hogs (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-2.5 percent)
Sugar (-7.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Coffee (35.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.7 percent)
Soybeans (-18.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-23.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-8.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-38.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.2 percent)
Cotton (-21.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.4 percent)
Cocoa (-10.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-15.0 percent)
Wheat (-7.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	46.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	40.7	12.4
– Net Position:	-48,280	83,034	-34,754
– Gross Longs:	283,037	653,322	139,285
– Gross Shorts:	331,317	570,288	174,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	89.6	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-5.5	-7.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 224,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	38.2	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	69.9	5.3
– Net Position:	224,695	-271,696	47,001
– Gross Longs:	320,884	328,055	92,632
– Gross Shorts:	96,189	599,751	45,631
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	26.2	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	8.0	-8.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	42.7	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	51.8	5.2
– Net Position:	18,208	-18,113	-95
– Gross Longs:	55,113	85,251	10,332
– Gross Shorts:	36,905	103,364	10,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	57.9	11.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.7	-33.7	-10.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	54.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	57.3	8.5
– Net Position:	36,454	-24,483	-11,971
– Gross Longs:	135,138	442,219	57,078
– Gross Shorts:	98,684	466,702	69,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	88.4	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	15.2	11.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	48.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	55.6	6.1
– Net Position:	31,139	-33,462	2,323
– Gross Longs:	98,579	225,469	30,536
– Gross Shorts:	67,440	258,931	28,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	65.3	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	11.8	-29.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 106,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 30,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	38.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.1	63.7	6.1
– Net Position:	106,326	-126,450	20,124
– Gross Longs:	131,878	189,965	50,190
– Gross Shorts:	25,552	316,415	30,066
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	39.1	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-10.8	5.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 56,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	34.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	52.3	12.3
– Net Position:	56,857	-49,115	-7,742
– Gross Longs:	102,832	96,618	26,491
– Gross Shorts:	45,975	145,733	34,233
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	62.7	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.5	35.3	36.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	39.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	28.9	10.1
– Net Position:	-20,721	20,671	50
– Gross Longs:	54,414	76,966	19,814
– Gross Shorts:	75,135	56,295	19,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	88.8	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	14.2	18.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	49.1	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	60.1	4.3
– Net Position:	22,680	-26,215	3,535
– Gross Longs:	64,477	116,370	13,814
– Gross Shorts:	41,797	142,585	10,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	72.6	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	23.0	-32.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 77,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	26.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	52.3	3.9
– Net Position:	77,020	-79,960	2,940
– Gross Longs:	128,611	83,207	14,982
– Gross Shorts:	51,591	163,167	12,042
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	11.7	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	11.6	-9.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -59,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	34.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	21.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-59,947	56,978	2,969
– Gross Longs:	121,807	150,412	38,208
– Gross Shorts:	181,754	93,434	35,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	74.5	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	8.4	-0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

27 Oct

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC). Overview for 27.10.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC exchange rate has dropped to 34,173 USD by Friday.

This is exactly as expected: the quotes have accounted for all the existing drivers, and new ones have not come. That is why the market stopped.

The market looks ready to develop the scenario with a correction to 29,500 USD. After BTC reaches this target, an increase to 31,200 USD and 32,000 USD might become possible.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation remains at 1.26 trillion USD. The BTC share has dropped to 53.0%, while the ETH share stands at 17.2%.

BTC capitalisation exceeds Tesla parameters

Total market weight of BTC amounts to 677.23 billion USD this week. To compare, Tesla market capitalisation is 675 billion USD and that of Eli Lilly is 556 billion USD.

BTC search volume has skyrocketed

This week, the number of search queries “buy BTC” in the UK has topped up 826%. In the US, the query is formulated as “should I buy BTC now”. The number of such search queries has added 250%.

ChatGPT forecasts BTC prices by Halloween

Market participants would not stop trying to use AI opportunities for working on exchange platforms. Now they are focused on the forecasts of the BTC price on Halloween made by the ChatGPT bot. AI insists that the most popular coins over this period will be BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

27 Oct

Japan is setting the stage for a monetary policy review. Falling tech companies are dragging the broad market

By JustMarkets

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,137.23 −49.54 (−1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,784.30 −251.63 (−0.76%)

DAX (DE40) 14,731.05 −161.13 (−1.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,354.57 −59.77 (−0.81%)

USD Index 106.65 +0.12 (+0.11%)

News feed for 2023.10.27:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Producer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

26 Oct

Extreme weather could burn many investment portfolios by mid-century

By Noël Amenc, EDHEC Business School; Abhishek Gupta, EDHEC Business School; Bertrand Jayles, EDHEC Business School; Darwin Marcelo, EDHEC Business School; Frédéric Blanc-Brude, EDHEC Business School; Leonard Lum, EDHEC Business School; Nishtha Manocha, EDHEC Business School, and Qinyu Goh, EDHEC Business School

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity today, with potentially severe implications for infrastructure assets. Infrastructure investments such as roads, bridges, ports, airports, and power plants have long lifetimes, typically spanning several decades, and are designed to operate under specific climatic conditions. However, climate change is causing more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and storms, which can damage or disrupt infrastructure assets. These physical risks can lead to direct losses, increased maintenance costs, and lower asset values.

At the same time, climate change induces changes in policy, technology, and consumer preferences that can impact the value of infrastructure assets. This is known as transition risks. For example, new regulations and carbon-pricing schemes could make carbon-intensive infrastructure assets less attractive or even “stranded”, leading to significant financial losses . Additionally, changes in consumer behaviour, such as a shift toward electric vehicles or renewable energy sources, could render certain infrastructure assets obsolete.

50% potential loss of value

If the energy transition has a cost for private investors (transition risks), so does climate change (physical risks). Extreme weather events, which experts predict will increase over the next few years, thus greatly increase the risk of losing value in portfolios.

In an August 2023 study, “It’s getting physical”, EDHEC Infrastructure and Private Assets Research Institute shows that some investors could see the value of their portfolio fall by more than 50% before 2050. The average investor’s portfolio, which generally holds around 10 assets, could drop by a quarter.

The reason is that over the past two decades, institutional investors – such as insurance companies, mutual and pension funds – have been allocating more and more capital to private infrastructure companies, which operate motorway toll roads, airports, power stations, bridges, pipelines, wind and photovoltaic farms, and so on. This represents a total value of 4.1 trillion dollars in the 25 most active markets. These markets include sectors like renewable energy projects, sustainable infrastructure development, clean technology ventures, electric vehicle manufacturing, carbon offset trading, and green real estate investment, among others. These infrastructures are particularly exposed to climate risks.

In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, public spending on physical infrastructure has persistently failed to keep up with economic growth; the United States spends only 2.3% of its GDP on infrastructure, compared to 5% for European countries and 8% for China. Still, private-investor exposure appears to be considerable.

27% loss of value on average

To measure the likely losses of infrastructure investors, we randomly constructed thousands of portfolios. To do this, we included hundreds of assets belonging to infrastructure investments across eight industrial superclasses, including transport (air, rail and road), power generation (gas- and coal-fired, nuclear, etc.), renewable energy (wind, solar, hydroelectric, etc.), network utilities (electricity, gas or water distribution), water resources (oil, gas or water pipelines, gas or liquid storage), etc. For all these assets, it is possible to obtain information on the associated climate risks in EDHEC’s InfraMetrics database.

Overall, we observed a high concentration of risk. Most infrastructure investors generally have few assets in their portfolios (between 5 and 20 on average). Their portfolios are poorly diversified, with a relatively limited number of assets held directly by each investor.

Furthermore, portfolios containing infrastructure assets are often concentrated in a single sector – for example, wind farms. In practical terms, an investor who started building a portfolio in 2018 and plans to hold the assets for another 30 years is exposed to losses solely due to physical risks ranging from -54% to -10%, depending on the number of assets held.

In addition, the loss in value of assets exposed to climate change is -27% on average [by 2050]. In a scenario where temperatures rise faster than expected, they could reach 54% for the most-concentrated portfolios. For instance, the “Hot House World” scenario predicts a rise in temperatures of about 3.2ºC above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

Some sectors are also more exposed to climate risks than others. In the transport sector, for example, the loss in net asset value would be four times greater than in the renewable energies sector. Investors in developed countries – in particular the United States, Europe and Australia and others – are the most exposed to losses in value worldwide. Indeed, the more valuable assets are concentrated in a given location, the greater the risk of value destruction.

More inaction, even greater risk

This study shows the scale of the potential losses that investors will have to face. And that’s before the 2050 deadline, as long as climate change predictions remain unchanged. Without action from governments and other stakeholders, climate risks could have a major impact on the overall value of investments, and on the economy as a whole.

However, there is still a glimmer of hope: if the stakeholders manage to organise an effective transition to a low-carbon economy, the losses mentioned in the article could be halved for all investors. All that remains – and this is undoubtedly the most difficult part – is to take action.

About the Authors:

Noël Amenc, Professeur de finance, EDHEC Business School; Abhishek Gupta, Associate Director at the EDHEC Infrastructure Institute, EDHEC Business School; Bertrand Jayles, Senior Sustainability Data Scientist, EDHEC Infrastructure & Private Assets Research Institute, EDHEC Business School; Darwin Marcelo, Project Director at the EDHEC Infrastructure & Private Assets Research Institute, EDHEC Business School; Frédéric Blanc-Brude, Directeur de l’EDHEC Infrastructure Institute, EDHEC Business School; Leonard Lum, Data analyst, EDHECinfra, EDHEC Business School; Nishtha Manocha, EDHECinfra Senior Research Engineer, EDHEC Business School, and Qinyu Goh, MSc Urban Science, Sustainability Data Scientist at the EDHEC Infrastructure & Private Assets Research Institute, EDHEC Business School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Archive for Financial News – Page 176

The S&P 500 has entered a technical correction, which is when an asset’s price falls by over 10% from a recent peak.

Amidst such a gloomy backdrop, hopes for an SPX500_m rebound this week are set to rest on these 4 major events:

1) Wednesday, November 1st: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

NOTE: Yields rise with bond prices fall.

For this week’s announcement, markets expect US$114 billion worth of securities to be outlined for sale by the US Treasury.

2) Wednesday, November 1st: FOMC rate decision

To be clear, the Fed is roundly expected to leave its benchmark rates unchanged this week.

3) Thursday, November 2nd (after US markets close): Apple earnings

Given Apple’s sheer size, how markets react to its earnings would have a large influence over how the S&P 500 performs.

NOTE: China accounts for about 20% of Apple’s total revenues.

Hence, both its backward-looking Q4FY23 numbers, as well as forward-looking statements especially around Chinese sales, could dictate how Apple’s share prices react.

4) Friday, November 3rd: US jobs report

From a technical perspective …

However, this technical rebound may prove short-lived, and bulls would need a fundamental catalyst to push the SPX500_m higher going into November.

Metals Speculator Bets led higher by Gold

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & the VIX

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend