Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 174

Trade of the Week: Gold hovers near $2k ahead of Powell

Gold kicks off Monday on shaky note amid risk-on mood
Fed speeches + Powell may influence precious metal
Gold bullish but RSI overbought on daily charts
Key levels of interest at $1968, $2000 and $2010

Gold prices have kicked off the new week on a wobbly note despite punching above the psychological $2000 level last Friday.

The precious metal jumped almost $15 within minutes after the US jobs report printed weaker than expected last week. With the US economy adding 150,000 jobs in October compared to the 180,000 forecast, and previous months numbers revised lower – bets jumped around the Fed not raising rates further.

While rising hopes around no more Fed hikes is good news for zero-yielding gold, this has also boosted overall risk sentiment – capping upside gains as investors shop for riskier assets.

Nevertheless, gold is still up more than 8% since the Hamas attacks on Israel with prices hovering near the psychological $2000 level. Taking a quick look at the technical picture, prices are bullish on the weekly charts but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowly approaching overbought conditions.

Zooming out on the monthly chart, prices remain in a very wide range with key resistance at $2000 and support at $1800.

Fun fact: Gold has never secured a monthly close above the psychological $2000 level.

Although this is a much quieter week on the risk calendar, some events could impact gold over the next few days:

Fed speeches + Powell

The week is jampacked with speeches from numerous Fed speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.

Investors will be looking for fresh clues on the Fed’s interest rate path, especially when considering how the central bank has not fully ruled out future hikes. While Powell has dropped hints about the Fed done with hikes, he has also warned that there was still much work to be done on inflation.

After last Friday’s jobs report, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December is now at single digits. Interestingly, traders have priced in a rate cut by June 2024.

Gold prices may edge higher if Powell and Co. adopt a dovish tone and hint that the Fed is done with hikes. However, gains could be capped if these remarks support risk sentiment.
Any unexpected hawkish cues from Fed speeches that spark a rebound in dollar and Treasury yields may drag gold prices away from the psychological $2000 level.

Geopolitical risks

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East remain a major element of uncertainty for global markets.

Should fears intensify over a potential spillover from the Israel-Hamas conflict, this could spark a fresh wave of risk aversion, sending investors towards safe-haven destinations like gold. It’s not only the developments in the Middle East but also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that could fan fears about a global recession. Although the focus seems to have shifted back towards interest rates, geopolitics may play a role in shaping gold’s outlook.

Should tensions in the Middle East hit risk sentiment, this could provide room for gold to push higher.
Any fresh signs of easing geopolitical tensions could boost overall risk sentiment, dragging gold lower as a result.

Technical forces: breakout?

There seems to be a fierce tug of war around the $2000 level as bulls and bears fight for control.

The scales of power swing in favour of bulls on the daily charts with technical indicators signalling further upside. Prices are above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD is trading above zero. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that prices are overbought on the daily timeframe. Key support can be found around $1968 with resistance at $2010 but the pivotal level remains at $2000.

A strong daily close above $2000 may provide the foundation for bulls to target $2010 and $2018, respectively.
Should prices remain capped below $2000, this could trigger a decline back towards $1968 and $1945.

Currently, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 76% chance that Gold will trade within the $1956.63 – $2024.73 range this week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals

05 Nov

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (27,807 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (27,106 contracts) also recording a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets were the 5-Year Bonds (-182,686 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-64,336 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-38,841 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-19,143 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-11,136 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-2,438 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,506,359	98	244,972	85	-244,907	15	-65	88
FedFunds	2,028,290	91	-178,027	31	201,942	73	-23,915	44
2-Year	4,188,473	99	-1,435,448	0	1,312,083	100	123,365	95
Long T-Bond	1,377,938	83	-155,381	29	101,237	47	54,144	88
10-Year	4,691,536	88	-627,698	22	531,947	73	95,751	94
5-Year	5,746,137	98	-1,191,589	5	1,110,941	92	80,648	91

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (85 percent) leads the bond markets this week and the only market over 50 percent currently.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (21.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (36.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (48.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (37.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (84.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (87.1 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bond (7 percent) and the Fed Funds (7 percent) are the next positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-22 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-13 percent) following next.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (6.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-4.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-12.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-13.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (7.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (17.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-21.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-19.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (22.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (5.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-15.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-2.0 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 244,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -38,841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 283,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	56.6	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	58.9	0.4
– Net Position:	244,972	-244,907	-65
– Gross Longs:	2,164,995	5,947,333	42,010
– Gross Shorts:	1,920,023	6,192,240	42,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	14.9	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	14.9	3.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -178,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 27,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -205,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	76.0	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	66.0	2.6
– Net Position:	-178,027	201,942	-23,915
– Gross Longs:	158,853	1,540,620	28,230
– Gross Shorts:	336,880	1,338,678	52,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	72.7	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-7.3	3.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,435,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,424,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	82.5	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	51.1	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,435,448	1,312,083	123,365
– Gross Longs:	408,762	3,453,960	266,889
– Gross Shorts:	1,844,210	2,141,877	143,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	94.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.6	3.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,191,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -182,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	83.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	64.0	5.6
– Net Position:	-1,191,589	1,110,941	80,648
– Gross Longs:	469,045	4,790,920	403,102
– Gross Shorts:	1,660,634	3,679,979	322,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.8	92.0	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	13.7	3.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -627,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -64,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -563,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	76.1	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	64.7	7.8
– Net Position:	-627,698	531,947	95,751
– Gross Longs:	572,295	3,568,418	461,152
– Gross Shorts:	1,199,993	3,036,471	365,401
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	72.7	94.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-14.6	11.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -252,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	63.2	12.6
– Net Position:	-252,307	283,428	-31,121
– Gross Longs:	196,655	1,555,303	222,295
– Gross Shorts:	448,962	1,271,875	253,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	94.9	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	9.2	43.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -155,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	76.2	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	68.8	10.7
– Net Position:	-155,381	101,237	54,144
– Gross Longs:	100,784	1,049,386	202,248
– Gross Shorts:	256,165	948,149	148,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	47.1	87.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.9	-20.1	7.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -336,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 27,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -363,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	82.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	63.0	9.4
– Net Position:	-336,440	307,001	29,439
– Gross Longs:	90,876	1,290,048	176,509
– Gross Shorts:	427,316	983,047	147,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	48.8	65.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-22.0	-9.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

05 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (14,040 contracts) with Platinum (11,306 contracts), Copper (3,599 contracts), Steel (2,869 contracts) and Palladium (987 contracts) also coming along with positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Silver with a decrease of -4,121 contracts on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	475,808	25	163,425	49	-182,707	53	19,282	31
Silver	126,549	15	20,211	47	-33,139	54	12,928	38
Copper	222,566	60	-17,161	16	18,395	87	-1,234	11
Palladium	22,943	100	-10,253	8	10,163	92	90	47
Platinum	74,768	65	10,826	41	-14,186	64	3,360	13

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Gold (49 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (8.2 percent) and Copper (16 percent) are at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (49.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.8 percent)
Silver (47.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (53.0 percent)
Copper (16.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.9 percent)
Platinum (40.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (14.5 percent)
Palladium (8.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.7 percent)
Steel (89.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.9 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (12 percent) and Steel (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.2 percent)
Silver (7.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (-0.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.3 percent)
Platinum (1.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (-0.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.5 percent)
Steel (10.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 163,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	22.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	60.7	5.4
– Net Position:	163,425	-182,707	19,282
– Gross Longs:	261,053	105,971	44,792
– Gross Shorts:	97,628	288,678	25,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	53.4	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-11.5	4.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	32.0	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	58.1	10.2
– Net Position:	20,211	-33,139	12,928
– Gross Longs:	48,025	40,441	25,863
– Gross Shorts:	27,814	73,580	12,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	53.7	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-4.1	-9.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	36.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	28.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-17,161	18,395	-1,234
– Gross Longs:	69,909	81,000	14,745
– Gross Shorts:	87,070	62,605	15,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	86.9	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	5.0	-32.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.2	22.6	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	41.6	5.1
– Net Position:	10,826	-14,186	3,360
– Gross Longs:	44,291	16,925	7,145
– Gross Shorts:	33,465	31,111	3,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	64.1	13.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	0.9	-17.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	51.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.9	7.6	7.5
– Net Position:	-10,253	10,163	90
– Gross Longs:	5,096	11,915	1,807
– Gross Shorts:	15,349	1,752	1,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	91.8	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-1.3	13.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	76.7	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	62.6	1.7
– Net Position:	-2,600	2,531	69
– Gross Longs:	3,103	13,774	380
– Gross Shorts:	5,703	11,243	311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.3	11.2	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-11.5	39.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

05 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & Russell 2000-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (7,615 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,744 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (4,040 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (253 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14,986 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-5,848 contracts)and DowJones-Mini (-151 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,174,689	18	4,337	65	-33,976	35	29,639	49
Nikkei 225	14,806	28	-1,875	53	1,084	42	791	38
Nasdaq-Mini	259,306	45	6,737	49	-6,592	36	-145	69
DowJones-Mini	103,936	70	-36,111	0	40,621	100	-4,510	22
VIX	353,533	49	-13,979	100	18,713	0	-4,734	72
Nikkei 225 Yen	54,580	44	4,776	49	9,666	37	-14,442	61

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above 50 percent.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (0 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (65.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (0.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (0.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (49.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (48.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (45.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (53.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (51.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (12.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.7 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (21 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (14 percent), the VIX (10 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-15 percent) and the Nikkei USD (-10 percent) coming in next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (9.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (11.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (21.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-40.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-50.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-9.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (14.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-18.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	45.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	40.0	9.1
– Net Position:	-13,979	18,713	-4,734
– Gross Longs:	95,012	160,163	27,346
– Gross Shorts:	108,991	141,450	32,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-10.2	4.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 4,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	72.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	73.6	10.6
– Net Position:	4,337	-33,976	29,639
– Gross Longs:	283,793	1,566,648	260,265
– Gross Shorts:	279,456	1,600,624	230,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	35.2	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-21.9	6.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -36,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,960 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	66.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.6	27.0	14.6
– Net Position:	-36,111	40,621	-4,510
– Gross Longs:	23,780	68,690	10,657
– Gross Shorts:	59,891	28,069	15,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.5	40.7	-24.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,737 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	55.9	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	58.4	14.6
– Net Position:	6,737	-6,592	-145
– Gross Longs:	72,368	144,956	37,843
– Gross Shorts:	65,631	151,548	37,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	36.3	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.7	2.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -39,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	79.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	72.4	4.6
– Net Position:	-39,427	40,876	-1,449
– Gross Longs:	80,998	441,734	24,237
– Gross Shorts:	120,425	400,858	25,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	53.5	22.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-11.0	-13.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 253 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	72.6	22.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	65.3	17.5
– Net Position:	-1,875	1,084	791
– Gross Longs:	679	10,745	3,382
– Gross Shorts:	2,554	9,661	2,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	42.5	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	12.3	-7.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -45,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	91.4	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	80.2	2.3
– Net Position:	-45,485	44,671	814
– Gross Longs:	21,077	363,693	9,868
– Gross Shorts:	66,562	319,022	9,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	90.9	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	16.6	-9.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

05 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (13,342 contracts) with Coffee (4,071 contracts) and Lean Hogs (2,532 contracts) also recording a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-39,416 contracts), Soybeans (-20,194 contracts), Sugar (-11,106 contracts), Wheat (-9,620 contracts), Cocoa (-7,543 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,671 contracts), Soybean Oil (-6,037 contracts) and Cotton (-16 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,671,255	24	262,258	31	-308,767	67	46,509	73
Gold	475,808	25	163,425	49	-182,707	53	19,282	31
Silver	126,549	15	20,211	47	-33,139	54	12,928	38
Copper	222,566	60	-17,161	16	18,395	87	-1,234	11
Palladium	22,943	100	-10,253	8	10,163	92	90	47
Platinum	74,768	65	10,826	41	-14,186	64	3,360	13
Natural Gas	1,186,140	46	-54,652	53	39,924	52	14,728	15
Brent	139,933	19	-31,488	51	28,628	51	2,860	50
Heating Oil	299,928	36	31,391	80	-52,127	27	20,736	66
Soybeans	706,923	35	16,260	0	-1,813	96	-14,447	69
Corn	1,412,108	29	-87,696	5	114,053	94	-26,357	98
Coffee	203,130	20	22,279	50	-21,876	54	-403	8
Sugar	865,859	40	213,589	68	-258,587	30	44,998	61
Wheat	460,210	100	-69,567	17	68,593	84	974	72

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (81 percent) and Sugar (68 percent) led the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (68 percent) and Coffee (50 percent) come in as the next highest with strength scores above 50 percent.

On the downside, Soybeans (0 percent), Corn (5 percent), Lean Hogs (15 percent) and the Wheat (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (4.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.5 percent)
Sugar (67.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (71.9 percent)
Coffee (50.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (32.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (60.6 percent)
Live Cattle (33.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (40.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.6 percent)
Cotton (25.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.8 percent)
Cocoa (80.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (88.5 percent)
Wheat (17.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.2 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (27 percent) and Soybean Meal (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (2 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-21 percent), Cocoa (-19 percent), Soybeans (-18 percent) and Soybean Oil (-17 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.0 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.1 percent)
Coffee (27.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (35.7 percent)
Soybeans (-17.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-18.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-8.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-53.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-38.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.4 percent)
Cotton (-21.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-21.6 percent)
Cocoa (-19.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-10.8 percent)
Wheat (-9.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -87,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -39,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	46.7	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	38.6	12.1
– Net Position:	-87,696	114,053	-26,357
– Gross Longs:	278,919	659,639	144,375
– Gross Shorts:	366,615	545,586	170,732
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	94.3	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-3.2	12.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 213,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,695 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	38.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	68.7	4.8
– Net Position:	213,589	-258,587	44,998
– Gross Longs:	310,643	336,357	86,511
– Gross Shorts:	97,054	594,944	41,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	30.2	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	11.0	-7.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	41.9	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.6	5.0
– Net Position:	22,279	-21,876	-403
– Gross Longs:	54,727	85,014	9,706
– Gross Shorts:	32,448	106,890	10,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	54.1	7.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.4	-25.3	-15.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	57.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	57.4	9.0
– Net Position:	16,260	-1,813	-14,447
– Gross Longs:	103,628	404,124	49,384
– Gross Shorts:	87,368	405,937	63,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	96.2	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	14.5	10.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,139 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	49.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	55.3	5.5
– Net Position:	25,102	-30,434	5,332
– Gross Longs:	103,802	241,470	32,168
– Gross Shorts:	78,700	271,904	26,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	66.8	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	17.6	-16.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 119,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	36.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	63.5	6.1
– Net Position:	119,668	-138,842	19,174
– Gross Longs:	149,649	191,134	51,015
– Gross Shorts:	29,981	329,976	31,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	32.2	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-20.1	14.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	35.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	50.9	12.0
– Net Position:	50,186	-43,839	-6,347
– Gross Longs:	96,331	100,461	27,680
– Gross Shorts:	46,145	144,300	34,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	69.1	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.2	48.2	52.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,532 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	39.4	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.4	29.1	10.3
– Net Position:	-18,189	20,010	-1,821
– Gross Longs:	54,521	76,620	18,275
– Gross Shorts:	72,710	56,610	20,096
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	88.2	75.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	16.7	4.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	47.4	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	57.8	4.9
– Net Position:	22,664	-24,680	2,016
– Gross Longs:	63,750	112,247	13,608
– Gross Shorts:	41,086	136,927	11,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	73.6	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.4	23.6	-39.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 69,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	26.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	50.0	3.9
– Net Position:	69,477	-72,106	2,629
– Gross Longs:	128,136	82,848	14,576
– Gross Shorts:	58,659	154,954	11,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	19.6	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	19.6	-7.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,947 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	34.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	19.3	7.8
– Net Position:	-69,567	68,593	974
– Gross Longs:	122,955	157,363	36,998
– Gross Shorts:	192,522	88,770	36,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	83.8	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	14.5	-22.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

03 Nov

Week Ahead: EURUSD bear flag waits for fresh catalyst

By ForexTime

*Note: This report was written before the US NFP data was published*

Euro could see volatility next week thanks to EU data dump

Powell remarks could trigger move in USD

EURUSD bear flag waits for fresh spark on D1 charts

Key levels of interest found at 1.0690, 1.0530 and 1.0450

Caution remains the name of the game as the key US jobs report this afternoon (Friday, 3rd November) approaches.

Even with the growing anticipation, some keen investors may be keeping tab on what’s to come in the week ahead:

Monday, 6th November

EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, Germany factory orders
JPY: BoJ September meeting minutes
GBP: BoE chief economic Huw Pill speech

Tuesday, 7th November

CNH: China trade, forex reserves
AUD: RBA rate decision
EUR: Eurozone PPI, Germany industrial production
JPY: Japan household spending
USD: US trade, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speech

Wednesday, 8th November

EUR: Eurozone retail sales, Germany CPI
GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
USD: US wholesale inventories, New York Fed President John Williams speech
WSt30_m: Walt Disney earnings

Thursday, 9th November

CNH: China CPI, PPI, money supply, new yuan loans
GBP: BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks
USD: US initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Friday, 10th November

JPY: Japan M2 money stock
NZD: New Zealand PMI
EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
GBP: UK industrial production, GDP
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Fed speak

Our focus falls on none other than the world’s most traded currency, which is set to be influenced by numerous reports from Europe and the United States, along with speeches from Fed officials including Jerome Powell.

Before we discuss what to expect from the EURUSD next week, it is worth noting that the currency pair is under pressure with a bearish flag pattern in play on the daily charts.

A bearish flag is a candlestick chart pattern that signals the continuation of a downtrend once the technical bounce is finished.

A fresh fundamental spark could be required to trigger a significant technical move on the EURUSD. Here are 3 potential catalysts to keep an eye on in the week ahead:

EU data dump

The euro could see heightened volatility due to top-tier data from Europe in the first half of the week.

Concerns remain elevated over Europe’s outlook with economic growth contracting 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023. However, inflation has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years – strengthening the case for ECB doves and boosting expectations that the ECB will not raise rates further.

Investors will be paying close attention to some key data pieces ranging from Eurozone PMI’s, PPI and retail sales along German factory orders and industrial production among other significant releases from the region.

The EURUSD could find itself under fresh selling pressure if overall economic data disappoints and boosts speculation around rate cuts in the first half of 2024.
Euro bulls may draw support from strong economic data, especially if this supports expectations around rates remaining higher for longer

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in an 82% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by April 2024.

Powell remarks + US data

The Fed not only left interest rates unchanged at its November meeting but Powell also hinted that the central bank could be done with its most aggressive tightening cycle in 40 years.

Powell expressed optimism over the US economy but still warned that there was a long way to go on the inflation fight. Speeches from various Fed officials will be in sharp focus but on Thursday the spotlight shine on Powell as he participates in a panel on monetary policy challenges at the IMF’s annual research conference in Washington. It will be wise to keep an eye on US economic data which could influence monetary policy expectations.

Should Fed officials strike a dovish tone and overall US data disappoint, this could strengthen the argument around the Fed being done with hikes – supporting the EURUSD as a result amid dollar weakness.
If Powell along with Fed officials sounds more hawkish and US data beats forecasts, expectations could rise around one more Fed hike before the end of 2023, pulling the EURUSD lower as the dollar strengthens.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 32% probability of a 25 basis point Fed hike by the end of 2023.

Technical forces: bear flag

A bear flag technical pattern could be in play on the daily charts with prices flirting around the 50-day SMA as of writing. Prices are trading below the 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. Key resistance can be found at 1.0730 and 1.0690. Support may be identified at 1.0530 and 1.0450.

Sustained weakness below 1.0730 may encourage prices to slip back towards 1.0530 before targeting the 1.0450 level.
Should prices break above 1.0730, this may trigger a move towards the 200-day SMA around 1.0800.

According to Bloomberg’s FX model, there is a 74% chance that the EURUSD will trade between 1.0539 and 1.0768 range over the coming week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

03 Nov

Canadian Mining Co. An Immediate Speculative Buy

Source: Clive Maund (11/2/23)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund takes a look at Collective Mining’s 6-month chart to tell you why now is the time to buy this stock.

Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL:TSXV) is rated an Immediate Strong Speculative Buy as close to the open this morning as possible. Its chart is looking very positive and the news came out that it has drilled its best hole to date.

On its latest 6-month chart below, we can see that when it broke down in September and tumbled along with many other gold and silver stocks, its Accumulation line held up well and has even been making new highs. This bodes well for recovery, even without the good news just out.

Right now, it appears to be at the second low of a Double Bottom with the strong Accumulation line already mentioned, still rising 200-day moving average, and positive divergence of momentum (MACD), all pointing to imminent recovery.

Collective Mining is therefore rated an Immediate Strong Speculative Buy as close to the open as possible.

Collective Mining’s website.

Collective Mining Ltd. closed at CA$4.46, $3.19 on October 27, 2023. Collective Mining is thinly traded on the US OTC market, where limit orders should always be employed.

_{Originally posted at Clivemaund.com at 9.25 EDT on October 30, 2023.}

Important Disclosures:

Clive Maund: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Financial News Metals

03 Nov

Oil and Gas Company Trading at 25% Of Book Value Production Set to Double

Source: Jeffery Hunter (11/2/23)

Jeffery Hunter of BullishBriefs shares his thoughts on energy company Avila Energy’s stock.

Avila Energy Corp. (PTRVF:OTCMKTS;VIK:CSE) is an overlooked opportunity trading at a steep discount to book value. After the share price was hit hard after a dramatic SPAC merger breakdown, this diversified energy company currently has a market capitalization under US$5 million, despite having total equity of US$21.3 million on the books. That means Avila Energy’s stock trades at around 25% of its book value per share of US$0.15.

With the price of Western Canadian crude oil sustaining over US$64 per barrel, now could be the ideal time to take advantage of Avila’s discounted share price. The company is focused on ramping up near-term production to capitalize on high commodity prices.

Avila currently produces approximately 570 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) from its operations in Alberta, Canada. The company plans to double production to 950-1,040 boe/d through a combination of workovers, recompletions, and new drilling. Assuming the lower end of production, US$64 WCS oil and US$3.10 natural gas, my math gives me about 8.1m in annual revenue, considerably higher than their current market cap.

To help fund this growth, Avila Energy is undertaking a US$2.2 million private placement. The capital raised will go directly toward adding barrels and increasing cash flow at a time when market conditions are favorable.

Beyond conventional oil and gas production, Avila Energy is making moves into the clean energy space. The company is developing carbon capture and sequestration technology to reduce the emissions from its upstream operations. Avila is also launching a Vertically Integrated Energy Business using patented micro-turbine technology.

This micro-turbine technology enables modular power generation for homes and businesses. By selling the power directly to consumers, Avila can establish a stable recurring revenue stream. The company estimates each customer could generate around US$500 per month on average.

Avila Energy is positioning itself for the global energy transition. Through a balanced mix of oil and gas production and clean energy sales, the goal is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2024 and net zero emissions by 2027.

With fossil fuel production providing steady cash flow and clean energy initiatives driving future growth, Avila aims to become a unique diversified energy provider. The company has the team and vision to bridge the gap between traditional and renewable energy.

Trading at just a fraction of book value, with near-term production set to double and a pivotal move into clean energy, Avila Energy offers substantial upside for investors. With the CEO owning a whopping 28% of outstanding shares, the opportunity is compelling for those who see the long-term potential in the strategic transition Avila is undertaking.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Avila Energy Corp.
Jeffery Hunter: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Energy Financial News

03 Nov

Germany’s unemployment rate is on the rise. SNB has reached its inflation target

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.70%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.89%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive at 1.78% yesterday. All three indices hit two-week highs. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again drove bond yields lower and supported stocks.

Thursday’s economic news out of the US was primarily dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 5,000 to 217,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 210,000. Nonfarm labor productivity rose by 4.7% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations of 4.3% and the highest in 3 years.

Apple (AAPL) posted its fourth consecutive loss on revenue of $89.5 billion, down 1% from the previous quarter. The company’s stock fell more than 3.5% on the report. Starbucks (SBUX) closed higher by more than 9% after reporting Q4 comparable sales growth of 8.0%, beating the consensus forecast of 6.31%. Qualcomm (QCOM) closed higher by more than 5% after reporting adjusted Q4 revenue of $8.67 billion. Moderna (MRNA) declined more than 6% and topped the Nasdaq 100 losers list after reporting a third-quarter loss per share of $9.53 after including $3.1 billion in redundancy costs and tax benefits. Airbnb (ABNB) closed down more than 3% after reporting Q4 revenue guidance of $2.13 billion to $2.17 billion, which was worse than expected.

Equity markets in Europe were mainly up yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.48%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.85% yesterday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 2.04%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive at 1.42%.

The number of unemployed in Germany for October rose by 30,000, exceeding expectations of 14,000, indicating a weakening labor market. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 5.8% in October, matching expectations and the highest rate in 2 years. Comments from ECB Governing Council spokesman Knott indicate that he favors a pause in ECB rate hikes.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) voted 6-3 to keep its key interest rate at 5.25%. It said the restrictive policy will likely be needed for an extended period to contain inflation. Bank of England Governor Bailey said policymakers are watching to see if further rate hikes will be required and that it is very early to think about cutting rates.

Swiss inflation remained at 1.7% y/y in October, matching the market consensus. The core rate rose to 1.5% y/y from 1.3%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has ensured that inflation is within the 0%-2% target range. One of the reasons the SNB has been able to keep inflation below target is the strong Swiss franc, which has kept inflation from rising. However, the SNB has expressed concern that inflation could exceed the 2% ceiling as electricity, rent, and public transportation costs have increased.

The EIA natural gas inventories report released Thursday showed an increase of 79 Bcf, which was in line with the consensus forecast but above the 5-year average of 57 Bcf. As of October 27, natural gas inventories were up 7.9% y/y and 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating ample natural gas reserves ahead of the winter months.

In the Middle East, Israeli soldiers entered Gaza City, completing the encirclement of the urban area that is home to the main forces of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, but now face a host of challenges in fighting in the dense urban environment.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.10% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.75% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday positive at 0.90%.

Major Australian banks, including ANZ, ING, and Macquarie, raised home loan interest rates in anticipation of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising the cash rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,317.78 +79.92 (+1.89%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,839.08 +564.50 (+1.70%)

DAX (DE40) 15,143.60 +220.33 (+1.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,446.53 +104.10 (+1.42%)

USD Index 106.14 −0.75 (−0.70%)

News feed for 2023.11.03:

– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 Nov

RoboForex Unveils Commission Schemes for CopyFX Traders on MT5

RoboForex, a well-established financial brokerage company, has unveiled new commission structures designed to empower skilled traders to maximise their potential earnings through the Performance Fee and Subscription Fee models while using the MT5 platform.

RoboForex has expanded its CopyFX service on the MT5 platform with meticulously crafted commission schemes tailored to create a balanced economic framework for the benefit of both traders and investors. The new “Performance Fee” and “Subscription Fee” schemes aim to foster a conducive trading environment where commissions align harmoniously with the profitability of investors’ trades.

Under the Performance Fee scheme, traders earn a portion of the overall profit generated by their subscribed investors from all deals copied for all subscription time. Alternatively, the Subscription Fee scheme ensures traders a fixed commission.

It should be noted that investors only incur the fee if the overall result turns out to be profitable.

A Symbiotic Relationship Between Traders and Investors

This initiative promotes a mutually beneficial relationship between traders and investors. Skilled traders can explore additional income streams, as their commissions are directly linked to the profits investors earn through copied transactions. In parallel, investors have the flexibility to select traders based on their performance, creating an ecosystem where traders are motivated to enhance their trading strategies. Consequently, higher profits for investors translate into more substantial commissions for traders.

What CopyFX Can Offer Clients on MT5

CopyFX on MT5 offers a combination of cost-effectiveness with a minimal deposit requirement of 100 USD. It also provides a secure, flexible, and user-friendly investment management infrastructure. With just an MT5 hedge account, traders and investors can access one of the most celebrated trading terminals in the market. Traders can use one of the best terminals on the market with cutting-edge analytical tools and lowest ping VPS from MetaQuotes. All the essential tools for copying transactions and acquiring subscribers to MT5 accounts are readily accessible in the Members Area under the “Investments” section. Notably, fees are only charged to investors when trades result in profits.

About CopyFX

Established in 2012, CopyFX is RoboForex’s flagship copy-trading platform, ingeniously designed to bridge the gap between novice investors and experienced traders. This innovative system empowers investors to enhance their trading skills by seamlessly subscribing to and replicating the strategies of seasoned traders. Expert traders, in turn, have the opportunity to earn commissions through followers’ strategic adoption.

CopyFX is available across RoboForex’s MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, and R StocksTrader accounts. It offers an enhanced trading experience by extending its robust functionalities through seamless integration with the R StocksTrader and R MobileTrader applications, ensuring a genuinely versatile, multi-device trading journey.

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Financial News – Page 174

Gold prices have kicked off the new week on a wobbly note despite punching above the psychological $2000 level last Friday.

While rising hopes around no more Fed hikes is good news for zero-yielding gold, this has also boosted overall risk sentiment – capping upside gains as investors shop for riskier assets.

Fun fact: Gold has never secured a monthly close above the psychological $2000 level.

Fed speeches + Powell

Geopolitical risks

Technical forces: breakout?

Currently, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 76% chance that Gold will trade within the $1956.63 – $2024.73 range this week.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

LEAN HOGS Futures: