Archive for Financial News – Page 158

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 29.12.2023 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is testing the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.1040 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.1235. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud with the price finding a foothold under 1.0845, which will mean a further decline to 1.0755.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is rising after a bearish correction. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 2060 is expected, followed by a rise to 2130. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud with the price finding a foothold under 2015, which will mean a further decline to 1975.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is moving within a bullish channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 0.6315 is expected, followed by a rise to 0.6460. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud with the price finding a foothold under 0.6165, which will mean a further decline to 0.6155.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

2023 Recap: Year of Record Highs

By ForexTime

This year has seen its share of surprises and shockers, to say the least.

Investors and traders had to battle with a US and European banking crisis in March, the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October, all while contending with the uncertainties over the Fed’s next policy moves.

Yet, many assets and instruments were able to move beyond the negative headlines to punch their way up to record highs!

As the curtains come down on 2023, we highlight 3 major assets that had a year to remember:

 

1) XAUUSD

On December 4th, briefly spiked to $2147.14 which was a new record high for spot gold!

This surpassed gold’s previous all-time peak of $2074.87, registered on August 7th, 2020, when the Fed kept its benchmark rates near-zero amid the economic turmoil from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Also, on December 27th, the precious metal secured its highest-ever daily closing price of $2077.16.

What drove XAUUSD to a new record high?

Markets are getting excited about the prospects of Fed rate cuts in 2024.

Note that the prospects of lower US interest rates (and a weaker US dollar/lower US Treasury yields) are a boon for gold.

After all, gold does not pay interest to investors who hold on to the precious metal.

In other words, lower interest rates make gold more attractive as a place to invest in.

 

At the time of writing, gold is set to close out 2023 with an annual gain of over 13%.

As long as the Fed can trigger the forecasted rate cuts, that should boost gold’s chances of reaching even higher heights in 2024!

 

2) NVIDIA

The stocks for this US chipmaker secured a daily close above the psychologically-important $500 line for the first time in its history on November 20th.

However, after posting an intraday record high of $505.46, it was unable to maintain such lofty heights.

The stock faltered and eventually found support around its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), before relaunching another attempt to retake the $500 level as we tip over into the new year.

To be clear, it’s been a great year overall for US stocks.

There were also record highs for the likes of:

  • NQ100_m (which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index)
  • WSt30_m (which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average index)
  • Apple

However, Nvidia takes the cake and is being singled out among its US peers, in light of its stunning year-to-date gains of nearly 240%!

What drove NVIDIA to a new record high?

The artificial intelligence craze has made Nvidia the best-performing member on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.

Nvidia stands out from the crowd in having already produced very real profits from the AI-mania, as opposed to mere hype.

Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPU) are a crucial component for companies that are looking to build their own AI products and services.

And of course, the prospects of US interest rates moving lower in the new year is also adding to the overall cheer for broader US stock markets as well.

As for the 2024 outlook, Wall Street is forecasting a further 31.7% climb for Nvidia over the next 12 months.

 

Outside of the US, European stock indices also had a stellar year!

There were record highs for the likes of:

  • FCHI40_m (which tracks France’s benchmark CAC 40 index)
  • SPN35_m (which tracks Spain’s benchmark IBEX 35 index)
  • STOX50_m (which tracks Europe’s blue-chip EURO STOXX 50 index)

But for this article, we zoom in the benchmark stock index for the Eurozone’s largest economy …

 

3) GER40_m

On December 14th, Germany’s benchmark stock index hit an all-time high of 17,018.0.

That was 2.9% higher than its previous record high of 16,537.5 set at end-July 2023.

However, it has eased slightly lower since, now settling around its 14-day simple moving average (SMA) for support.

Still, the GER40_m index is set to claim a 20% gain for all of 2023!

What drove GER40_m to a new record high?

Here are two main factors:

  • Hopes for ECB rate cuts

At the time of writing, markets are betting on a 70% chance that the ECB could cut its rates as soon as March 2024.

Stocks tend to rejoice at the thought of lower interest rates, which makes it cheaper to borrow money to fuel the company’s growth, while shoring up economic growth.

  • Cheaper valuations

The DAX’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio still stands at a mere 12.49, despite the recent record high for Germany’s benchmark stock index.

That 12.49 number is lower compared to the S&P 500’s PE ratio of 21.97 and the Nasdaq 100’s PE ratio of 30.33.

The lower the PE ratio, the “cheaper” the asset.

And that has made German stocks more appealing for investors who realize they can access a greater share of the earnings for every euro invested into stocks that make up the DAX index.

 

As for the 2024 outlook, it could be a choppy year for the European stock indices amid forecasts for a recession.

Still, if the Ger40_m can battle past such fears, new record highs may well be ahead.

Analysts are predicting up that Germany’s benchmark stock index could be as much as 13% higher by this time next year!

 

So there you have it!

So many assets found fresh all-time peaks in 2023, rewarding investors and traders that anticipated higher prices along the way.

Could there be new record highs for other assets in the new year?

Find out via our 2024 outlook, which is set to be published in the first week of the new year!


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Japanese index became the best-performing stock index in Asia

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.14%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.04%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.03% on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrials (US30) and NASDAQ (US100) indices hit all-time highs yesterday. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates early next year continue to support stocks, keeping the Santa Claus rally alive.

Economic news is also contributing to the rally in stock indices. US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 218,000, indicating a weak labor market versus expectations of a rise to 210,000. US home sales for November were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of a 0.9% m/m increase.

Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, has recently started to acknowledge that a rate cut could come in the new year, despite constant warnings that the central bank is ready to raise rates again if progress in curbing inflation stalls. Economists say the path of inflation toward the central bank’s 2% target could be bumpy, which could push back the timing of next year’s interest rate cut. In his year-end speech, Macklem told Canadians that 2024 will likely be a “year of transition.” He warned that the coming quarters will be “difficult for many” as growth slows and consumers are forced to rein in their spending.

European equity markets declined from multi-year highs on Thursday. There has been profit taking in the final days of the year. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.24%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.48% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.35%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.03%.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Holzmann said it is too early for the ECB to think about cutting interest rates now, and there is no guarantee of a rate cut in 2024.

Crude oil (WTI) and gasoline prices fell sharply on Thursday, with crude falling to its lowest in a week and gasoline falling to a 2-week low. Concerns over slowing energy demand growth in China have weighed on crude oil prices. China Petroleum and Natural Gas Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) forecasts that demand growth for petroleum products in China will slow to 1.7% in 2024 from 16.1% in 2023.

Natural gas (XNG) prices rose sharply on Thursday after weekly US natural gas inventories fell more than expected. The EIA reported that natural gas inventories fell by -87 billion cubic feet last week, more than the expected 79 billion cubic feet.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.42%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 2.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 2.52%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.70%.

In Asia, the best-performing major stock market in 2023 was Japan’s Nikkei (JP225), with a gain of 28%, its highest annualized gain in a decade. Taiwan’s stock market is in second place with a year-to-date gain of 26.6%. India’s Nifty index ranks third with a 20% gain in 2023. Thailand’s SET index, on the other hand, has been the worst-performing stock market in Asia this year, with a 15% drop. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HK50) fell by 14% this year, making it the second-weakest performer. China’s blue-chip stocks are down by 11 % for the year.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said yesterday that the probability that the Japanese economy will emerge from low inflation and reach its price stability target is gradually improving, although the likelihood is still not high enough. He added that if prices and wages continue to rise, the chances of sustainably achieving the 2% inflation target will increase enough that the Bank of Japan will probably consider changing its monetary policy as early as spring 2024.

China has promised to tighten monetary policy and boost consumer prices, which continued their decline last month. The central bank also promised to ensure reasonable credit growth, increase structural support for technology, infrastructure, and other sectors, and boost public investment to encourage private investment. Such a PBoC statement gave a boost to Chinese stocks yesterday.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,783.35 +1.77 (+0.04%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,710.10 +53.58 (+0.14%)

DAX (DE40) 16,701.55 −40.52 (−0.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,722.74 −2.21 (−0.03%)

USD Index 100.95 +0.25 (+0.24%)

News feed for 2023.12.29:
  • – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Solana pulling back after stunning 2023 rally!

By ForexTime 

  • Solana skyrocketed by as much as 1155% this year
  • Technical pullback warranted after such eye-watering gains
  • This crypto still holds year-to-date gains of about 950% despite recent drop
  • Solana likely surged as crypto sector recovers from FTX/SBF saga, amid Bitcoin ETF hype
  • Further declines may hark back to key support levels from Q1 2022, before potentially pushing back higher

Of the 11 cryptocurrency CFDs offered within the FXTM universe, this year’s standout performer is clearly Solana!

Solana is a blockchain, featuring its SOL payment token, that’s touted for its high speeds (can process a lot more transactions per second) and low fees, which enables the creation of decentralized applications.

At the time of writing, and with only a handful of trading days left in 2023 …

Solana has a year-to-date climb of 952%!

Its year-to-date advance had reached as high as 1,155% earlier this week, before undergoing a technical pullback in recent sessions.

Solana’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is now on course to dip back below the 70 threshold which marks “overbought” conditions.

Why has Solana surged this year?

There are a few major reasons being bandied about for Solana’s stunning rise in 2023:

1) Solana moving on post-SBF/FTX

The disgraced founder of the FTX exchange, Sam Bankman-Fried a.k.a. SBF, had previously publicly advocated the merits of the Solana blockchain.

Hence, markets had associated Solana with SBF.

When SBF and FTX fell hard in 2022, so too did Solana, with the crypto losing almost all (94.1%) of its value last year.

But as the crypto world took strides in moving beyond the FTX carnage, so too has Solana’s fortunes recovered.

2) Alt-coins resurgence

Besides Solana, other alt-coins have also have a year of recovery.

The likes of Avalanche, Chainlink, and Cardano also respectively posted triple-digit year-to-date gains!

Cryptocurrencies, overall, are enjoying a resurgence, thanks to the rising anticipation surrounding a first-ever Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) that could be approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as soon as January 10th, 2024.

Such excitement surrounding that first-ever Bitcoin ETF has spilled over into the broader crypto universe, and helped push prices higher.

3) Fed pivot in 2024 encouraging risk appetite

Looking at the Solana chart above, its steepest ascent appear to have commenced after the Federal Reserve’s (US central bank) latest policy meeting in mid-December.

Fed officials forecasted several rate cuts in 2024!

Riskier assets, including stocks and even cryptos, have rejoiced at the prospects of the US central bank lowering its benchmark rates, with the first rate cut expected to occur in March.

After all, lower interest rates have the potential to boost liquidity across global financial markets.

And as we know …

Market liquidity is a core pillar for crypto prices to move higher.

Hence, in light of the market’s forward-looking nature (today’s prices reflect tomorrow’s expectations), existing market participants have pushed crypto prices higher recently, in tandem with other riskier assets including the SPX500_m and the NQ100_m indices, on hopes for improved market conditions in 2024.

Though to be clear, liquidity within crypto markets are still yet to recover to levels prior to the crypto winter of 2022.

 

Where to next for Solana prices?

At the time of writing, Solana appears to be currently testing support around the $105 region.

Just this past Tuesday, Solana had already bounced off the psychologically-important $100 mark in a rather violent Boxing Day session.

Should the $100 fail at the second time of asking, traders may have to hark back to price action from Q1 2022 to draw further lines of support.

If the ongoing pullback is extended further …

Solana may eventually see stronger support around the psychologically-important $80 region.

 

However, once the ongoing technical pullback has run its course and the froth has been cleared from its eye-watering surge this year, the eventual equilibrium price may form a stronger base from which Solana can move higher.

Further gains for Solana however may require that the appetite for cryptos can make a sustainable comeback, especially if the positive inflows into that Bitcoin ETF does materialise.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

The decline in global bond yields supports stock indices

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.30%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.16% on Wednesday. A decline in global bond yields is lending support to stocks on optimism that global central banks will start cutting interest rates next year.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, trading volume in US exchange-traded funds on Tuesday was 35% below the 30-day average. That suggests investor activity is waning ahead of the New Year.

Apple (AAPL) fell by 0.78%, added to Tuesday’s 0.28% loss, and topped the Dow Jones (US30) losers list after the US Trade Representative decided not to overturn the International Trade Commission’s ruling that Apple infringed two patents owned by Masimo and Cercacor Laboratories. AstraZeneca (AZN) rose more than 1% yesterday after its $1.2 billion acquisition of Gracell Biotechnologies, which allows it to expand its line of cancer drugs.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.21%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.04%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.10% and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.36%. Speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates before the ECB puts pressure on the dollar and favors the euro. Markets estimate the chances of a 25 bps rate cut by the US Fed at 14% at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 and 98% at the March 19-20 meeting. Meanwhile, swaps rate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 4% at the next meeting on January 25 and 64% at the March 7 meeting.

German 10-year bond yields fell to a one-year low. German bonds have been rising since late October as weak Eurozone economic data and slowing inflation suggest the European Central Bank won’t keep rates high for long.

Crude oil prices were under technical selling pressure on Wednesday as funds closed their crude oil positions ahead of the year-end.

Asian markets rallied yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.13% over yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 1.74%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.79%.

Some BOJ officials called for a more in-depth discussion on the future exit from ultra-loose monetary policy as the economy moves towards the Bank’s price target. While the board agreed to maintain the massive stimulus for the time being, the views of the nine representatives were split between those who are cautious about raising interest rates and those who believe it is necessary to start preparing for a future exit.

Factory output in Japan fell in November, dragged down by a drop in auto production and clouding the outlook for the export-dependent economy. Automobile production, the mainstay of industrial output, fell by 2.5% in November. Output of electrical, information and communication electronics equipment also fell by 3.5% due to weak semiconductor demand.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,781.62 +6.87 (+0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,657.04 +111.71 (+0.30%)

DAX (DE40) 16,742.07 +35.89 (+0.21%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,724.95 +27.44 (+0.36%)

USD Index 100.95 −0.52 (−0.51%)

News feed for 2023.12.28:
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Inventories (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Brent oil eases lower on “death cross”

By ForexTime

  • Fed pivot, geopolitical fears have fuelled oil’s recent rebound
  • Brent’s 50-day SMA now crossing below 200-day counterpart
  • Such a “death cross” could signals declines ahead for oil prices
  • After the last “death cross” in Sept 2022, Brent fell by a further 21% through March 2023
  • Still, fundamental forces may offset potentially bearish technical signal

In recent weeks, Brent oil has enjoyed a rare bounce after making multi-month lows in mid-December.

Recall on December 13th, the global benchmark for oil prices touched $72.33, a price last seen in July.

Since then, Brent has rebounded strongly and is now trading back above $80.

The rebound over the past couple of weeks appear to have been sparked by the Fed’s policy pivot.

With policymakers at the US central bank now forecasting several rate cuts in 2024, oil bulls are drawing comfort from the idea that those demand-destroying rate hikes triggered since March 2022 are now relegated to the past.

 

Middle East conflict further fuelling oil’s rebound

More recently, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have picked up once more as Yemen-based Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea disrupted global trade.

A multinational maritime task force, including the US, has been set up to protect commercial ships in the region.

On the back of this, Denmark’s Maersk said on Sunday it was preparing to resume operations on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

But US military strikes on an insurgent group in Iraq ratcheted up escalation concerns that could spark flashpoints in the region.

Warnings from Israel that the Gaza war could go on for many months also stoked fears.

The uncertainty of the general conflict and Iran’s possible responses mean markets may keep some sort of risk premium in crude prices.

 

Demand side bolsters outlook

Brent made gains of over 3% last week though trading volumes are thin amid ongoing holidays in some markets.

Further signs of easing US inflation in data released just before the holiday period reinforced expectations that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates early next year.

Policy easing by the Fed could potentially support global growth and the energy demand outlook.

A weaker dollar would also provide possible tailwinds to the commodity complex.

 

Technical Analysis: “Death cross” in play

The December dip in Brent crude didn’t quite reach major support from earlier in the year around $72.

Since then, prices have moved up around 10% in total and are approaching the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA).

In fact, those two widely watched technical indicators are now crossing over with the 50-day moving below the 200-day simple average.

That means a “death cross” is forming and indicates a potential resumption of the multi-month downward trend.

The last time that Brent formed a “death cross” on the daily timeframe was back in September 2022.

After that last “death cross”, Brent went on to drop by over 20% when it reached an intraday low of $70.07 in March 2023.

To be clear, the dreaded gauge does not always predict lower markets, even if it is a red flag and caution prevails.

On the flip side, some market watchers believe a death cross can signal a bearish market has run its course and it could be a good time to buy.

 

“Bearish” technical signals may be offset by fundamental factors

Beyond the potential cues from a looming “death cross”, oil prices may continue finding more near-term support from the supply-demand dynamics in global oil markets.

Over the short-term, Brent prices could be prevented from falling too far below $80/bbl by:

  • a still-moderating US dollar on hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2024
  • persistent fears of supply disruptions out of the Middle East conflict.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Oil rises in price amid rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Santa Claus rally supports broad market

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.54% on Tuesday. Stocks rose on Tuesday in leisurely holiday trading as markets in Europe and parts of Asia were closed for the Christmas holiday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (US500) hit a nearly two-year high, and the NASDAQ index (US100) hit a record high. Stocks are supported by the seasonal Santa Claus rally (prices typically rise between Christmas and the first days of the New Year). Strengthening chip stocks boosted the overall market and pushed the Nasdaq 100 Index to a record high, while a more than 2% rise in WTI crude oil prices drove energy stocks higher.

Rising holiday spending indicates consumer confidence in the economic outlook, which is supporting stocks. According to Mastercard (MA), retail sales data, from November 1 through December 24, in-store and online sales (excluding automotive) were up by 3.1% year-over-year, while spending at restaurants was up by 7.8%.

Equity markets in Europe did not trade yesterday due to the holidays.

According to economists, the Bank of England is set to cut interest rates by at least 125 basis points next year, with the first quarter-point cut coming at the MPC meeting on May 9. This dovish reassessment is partly due to recent reports on UK inflation and GDP. As a result, some banks see UK inflation at 3% at the end of H1 2024, while others see it falling to the Bank of England’s 2% target. According to the latest GDP statistics, the final Q3 GDP contracted by 0.1%, missing expectations, while Q2 GDP data was revised downwards. Lower inflation will be needed next year to give a boost to the weak UK economy, which is close to recession.

WTI crude oil prices jumped more than 2% to a 3-week high amid geopolitical risks after the US military struck three sites in Iraq, targeting an Iranian-backed terrorist group blamed for a series of drone attacks on US troops. In addition, Britain’s navy reported an attack on two commercial ships traveling in the Red Sea near Yemen.

Asian markets were predominantly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.16% over yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) closed at its opening price on Tuesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) were not trading due to holidays.

Japanese and Indian stock markets were Asia’s best performers through 2023. Key supportive factors were the Bank of Japan’s soft stance and optimism about the Indian economy. On the other hand, Chinese blue-chip stocks performed the worst in the region as lingering concerns over the country’s economic recovery led investors to pull out of local markets.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,774.75  +20.12 (+0.42%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,545.33 +159.36 (+0.43%)

DAX (DE40)  16,706.18 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,697.51 0 (0%)

USD Index  101.41 −0.30 (−0.29%)

News feed for 2023.12.27:
  • – US Richmond Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Japan sees inflationary pressures easing. Angola leaves OPEC+

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.87%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.03%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.26% on Thursday. Thursday’s US Q3 GDP reports and the Philadelphia Fed’s December business outlook survey came in weaker than expected, raising expectations of a Fed rate cut and supporting the indices.

The Philadelphia Fed’s December business outlook survey unexpectedly fell by 4.6 to minus 10.5, which was weaker than expectations for a rise to minus 3.0. Also, the US Q3 GDP report was revised down by 0.3 to 4.9% (q/q), which was weaker than expectations of no change at 5.2%. In addition, leading indicators for November declined by 0.5% m/m, marking the twentieth consecutive month of declining readings. In contrast, weekly initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 205,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 215,000.

The US will release the PCE inflation report today, which is favored by the US Fed over CPI because the PCE measure covers a wider range of goods and services than CPI and a broader range of buyers. Economists expect the PCE price index to be unchanged for a second month in November, while the core index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is expected to rise 0.2%. A rise in the PCE index would temporarily restore confidence in the US dollar and be a headwind for indices and gold.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. German DAX (DE40) declined by 0.27%, French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.16%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.03%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.27%.

Oil prices came under pressure on Thursday after Angola announced its withdrawal from OPEC+ amid a dispute over oil production quotas. Angola is Africa’s second-largest oil producer, and the split between Angola and other OPEC+ members is bearish, signaling more strife between members of the organization. Others in OPEC+ may also resist Saudi Arabia’s attempt to force all members of the organization to cut production.

Natural gas prices rose sharply on Thursday amid a larger-than-expected decline in weekly US gas inventories. The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories fell by 87 billion cubic feet, more than forecasts of 82 billion cubic feet. As of December 15, natural gas inventories were up by 7.6% from a year earlier and were 8.5% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating ample natural gas supplies. In Europe, natural gas storage facilities were 89% full as of December 17, above the 5-year seasonal average of 77% for this time of year.

Asian markets were mostly up on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.28% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 2.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up by 1.95%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday positive 0.53%.

In Japan, consumer prices excluding fresh food showed 2.5% y/y, down from the previous reading of 2.9%. The fall in energy costs intensified while the rise in processed food prices weakened. The latest data is consistent with previous Tokyo data and the BOJ’s view that price pressures will gradually ease as import-driven inflation falls, with the focus on whether the broader trend supported by wage growth takes root. The consensus among economists is that the Bank of Japan will bring the rate to zero in April 2024 after checking the outcome of annual wage negotiations due in March.

Apart from Japan, Australia is the only developed economy where traders are unsure if policymakers will start cutting the key rate in the next six months. Once the Reserve Bank’s rate easing cycle begins, the market sees it as the least likely to cut rates. The RBA’s rate is 1% lower than the Fed’s, emphasizing the subdued pace of tightening even though inflation in Australia remains higher than in the US and UK. These differences help explain why RBA chief Michelle Bullock is taking a hawkish tone and why money markets expect the RBA to tread cautiously on the easing path. This will lead to a stronger Australian dollar next year against major currencies.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,746.75 +48.40 (+1.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,404.35 +322.35 (+0.87%)

DAX (DE40) 16,687.42 −45.63 (−0.27%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,694.73 −20.95 (−0.27%)

USD Index 101.87 +0.03 (+0.03%)

News feed for 2023.12.22:
  • – Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

USDInd breaks down ahead of US inflation data

By ForexTime

  • USDInd now trading at lowest since end-July
  • Holiday season tends to see lighter trading activity
  • Still, today’s US inflation data release could trigger a pre-Christmas move for the greenback
  • Softer-than-expected PCE deflators may send USDInd sharply lower

The dollar has made fresh cycle lows as markets head into the holiday period and a time of thin liquidity and volumes.

That means price action can be whippy with little rhyme or reason for the moves. Many big trading desks have wound up their positions, so staffing levels and activity are much lighter than normal.

The most important data release today will be the US November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).

Consensus expects the Fed’s favoured inflation measure to have remained steady at +0.2% month-on-month (November 2023 vs. October 2023).

The year-on-year (November 2023 vs. November 2022) figure is expected to ease lower to 2.8%, and 3.3% for the Core PCE Deflator; both lower by 0.2 percentage points than October’s year-on-year prints.

A softer than expected PCE Deflator report could see the dollar wave decisively goodbye to support around 102 and move sharply lower.

After all, there is currently a 14% chance of a rate cut at the first FOMC meeting of the year in late January, which rises to above 94.5% at its mid-March decision.

However, a surprise surge in inflationary pressures may force markets to push back bets for Fed rate cuts in 2024, while could offer some short-term relief for the US dollar.

 


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Hedge funds and large investors are locking in positions ahead of the Christmas holidays

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.27%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 1.47%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.50%. Stocks went up first on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 Index (US500) rising to a 23-month high and the Dow Jones (US30) and NASDAQ (US100) indices setting new all-time highs. Stocks found support amid better-than-expected data on home sales and consumer confidence in the US, which bolstered prospects for a soft landing for the US economy. But by the end of the trading day, the stock market began to sell off. Over the past two weeks, sharp gains in stock indexes have driven them into overbought territory, prompting profit-taking and technical selling by fund managers and investors ahead of the Christmas holiday. The losses on Wall Street were massive, with about 95% of the companies in the indices down.

US home sales in November rose by 0.8% m/m to 3.82 million, which was stronger than expectations of a decline to 3.78 million. In addition, the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index for December rose by 9.7 to a 5-month high of 110.7, exceeding expectations of 104.5. Philadelphia Fed President Harker’s comments on Wednesday were somewhat hawkish and favorable to the US dollar when he said the Fed should start cutting interest rates, but “we shouldn’t do it too quickly, and we’re not going to do it all at once.”

FedEx (FDX) fell by 12%, one of the biggest drops in the market, after it reported lower revenue and profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The company also expects its full fiscal year revenue to fall sharply from the previous year.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) was up by 0.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.06%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) raised by 1.02%.

Economic news for the Eurozone yesterday was mixed. Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for November declined by 0.5% m/m and 7.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 7.5% y/y. The GfK German Consumer Confidence Index for January rose by 2.5 to a 5-month high of minus 25.1, stronger than expectations of minus 27.0. Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for December rose by 1.8 to a 5-month high of minus 15.1, stronger than expectations of minus 16.3. Eurozone new car registrations for November rose by 6.7% y/y to 886,000, marking the sixteenth consecutive month of growth in registrations.

In the UK, inflation unexpectedly slowed to 3.9% in November from October’s 4.6%, reaching its lowest level since 2021. Weakening price growth is raising hopes that central banks around the world could abandon interest rate hiking campaigns and start cutting rates in 2024. Markets expect a rate cut from the BoE in May 2024.

The EIA’s weekly oil inventories report released on Wednesday was bearish for crude oil prices (WTI). EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 2.91 million barrels versus expectations of a 2.3 million barrel decline. But geopolitical risks keep a bullish bias for oil. Concerns about disruptions to Middle East oil supplies will support oil prices as more shippers avoid the Red Sea and send oil bypassing Africa due to attacks by Houthi militants on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Asian markets were mostly rising on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 1.47% over yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.66%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.66%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) raised by 0.65%.

At the opening on Thursday, Asian indices began to sell off, following the US indices. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.5% after opening. Meanwhile, Japanese automaker Toyota led losses on the benchmark, falling as much as 3.9%. On Wednesday, the company said it was recalling 1 million vehicles due to a defect that could cause airbags to fail to deploy, increasing the risk of injury. It came amid news that Toyota’s small-car subsidiary Daihatsu has suspended deliveries of all its vehicles in Japan and overseas after an investigation found improper safety testing on 64 models, including some made for Toyota, Mazda, and Subaru. Officials from Japan’s transportation ministry searched Daihatsu’s offices on Thursday.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,698.35 −70.02 (−1.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,082.00 −475.92 (−1.27%)

DAX (DE40) 16,733.05 −11.36 (−0.07%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,715.68 +77.65 (+1.02%)

USD Index 102.43 −0.27 (−0.26%)

News feed for 2023.12.21:
  • – Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.