Archive for Financial News – Page 15

19 Feb

EUR/USD Forced Lower: US Dollar Has a Strong Case

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD on Thursday stabilised at 1.1792 after a sharp decline the day before. The US dollar was supported by strong US macro data and unexpectedly tough signals from the Fed.

The minutes of the previous meeting showed that disagreements remain within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of rates. This suggests that it may not be easy for the new chair to implement a rate cut. Some members had previously explicitly admitted the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains above target.

The market has slightly reduced expectations for policy easing this year, but still prices in two 25-basis-point cuts before the end of the year.

Additional support for the dollar was provided by industrial production data. It grew at the highest rate in almost a year. Orders for core capital goods exceeded forecasts, and the number of new home mortgages reached a five-month high.

PMI indices and GDP data are due next, which may provide additional guidance on the path of interest rates.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD stays close to 1.1790–1.1800 after breaking support at 1.1885 and accelerating the decline. The price has firmed below the Bollinger Bands’ midline; the bands have widened, indicating bearish momentum. The MACD is in negative territory; the histogram is deepening further, reinforcing downward momentum. The Stochastic oscillator has rebounded from oversold. Against this background, a brief correction is possible, but the structure remains weak. The nearest support is at 1.1765, and resistance is at 1.1885.

On the lower H1 time frame, a sharp downward move is visible, followed by local stabilisation. The price is forming a small bounce off 1.1780 but remains below the Bollinger Bands’ middle line. The MACD remains negative, although the pressure is gradually decreasing. The Stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone, suggesting that any corrective rebound could fade in the 1.1820–1.1840 area.

The overall picture points to a short-term rebound within a broader bearish move.

Conclusion

In summary, EUR/USD remains under decisive pressure following hawkish Fed signals and resilient US economic data. The technical breakdown below key support has confirmed a bearish shift, with momentum indicators favouring further downside despite oversold conditions. The current stabilisation appears corrective rather than reversal, with any bounce likely capped near 1.1820–1.1840. Upcoming US PMI and GDP releases will shape the near-term direction. A break below 1.1765 would open the door to deeper losses towards 1.1700, while a sustained move above 1.1885 is needed to alleviate bearish pressure.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
18 Feb

RBNZ holds rates as expected and confirms dovish stance. Inflation declines in Canada

By JustMarkets 

On Tuesday, trading on the US stock market concluded with moderate gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.07%. The S&P 500 (US500) climbed by 0.10%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.14%. The financial sector outperformed the broader market: shares of JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup strengthened following statements from FOMC representatives regarding the likely maintenance of tight policy, which supports expectations for net interest margins. Investors are now awaiting the publication of the regulator’s minutes and core PCE inflation data to assess the sustainability of the disinflationary trend.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.367 per US dollar, retreating from a 16-month high reached in late January amid slowing inflation and deteriorating foreign trade conditions. Consumer price growth slowed to 2.3% in January, while the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) core indicator dropped to 2.4%. This reinforced expectations of a pause in policy tightening at a rate of 2.25% and narrowed the yield differential that had previously supported the currency. Additional pressure is coming from the commodities factor: oil quotes are being held back amid discussions within OPEC+ regarding a potential production increase starting in April.

European markets ended the day with gains. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.80%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.54%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.60%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.79%. The German DAX 40 closed Tuesday at 24,998 points, a one-week high, reflecting improved sentiment across European trading floors.

WTI oil prices held above $62 per barrel, breaking the recent decline as markets assessed the outcome of negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the nuclear program. Tehran reported reaching a general understanding on key points of a potential deal, while the American side announced the continuation of dialogue in Geneva. However, uncertainty remains: Iran temporarily restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz due to military exercises, and the US dispatched a second aircraft carrier to the region.

Platinum (XPT) prices dropped to approximately $2,000 per ounce, hitting a two-month low amid a general decline in the precious metals segment and reduced trading activity due to holidays in Asia and the US. Despite the slowdown in US inflation, which bolstered expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year, investors remain cautious ahead of the release of new data and the regulator’s minutes.

Natural gas (XNG) prices in the US fell by 5% to approximately $3.07 per MMBtu, hitting a low since October. Pressure on quotes was intensified by near-record production volumes and prognoses of warmer weather through early March, which weakens heating demand and allows for the accumulation of large inventories in storage. Average production in the Lower 48 states rose to 108.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in February, up from 106.3 billion in January, with daily figures recently hitting 111 billion bcf/d, approaching historic highs. Additional market support comes from rising exports to LNG terminals, which increased to 18.6 bcf/d in February and could surpass the December record.

Asian markets traded without a uniform trend yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.42%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) will not trade for the entire week due to Lunar New Year celebrations, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) also did not trade yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.24%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) declined to $0.601 following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to maintain the key rate and confirm a dovish policy stance. The regulator signaled that supportive conditions will remain in the near term, and further steps will be gradual as the economy strengthens and inflation returns to the target level. Meanwhile, updated expectations allow for a possible 25 bp rate hike as early as the end of the year – significantly earlier than previous guidance for 2027.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,843.24 +7.07 (+0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,533.19 +32.26 (+0.07)

DAX (DE40) 24,998.40 +197.49 (+0.80%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,556.17 +82.48 (+0.79%)

USD Index 97.16 +0.24% (+0.25%)

News feed for: 2026.02.18

  • Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
  • Australia Wage Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • New Zealand RNBZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 (GMT+2); – NZD (HIGH)
  • New Zealand RNBZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:00 (GMT+2); – NZD (HIGH)
  • New Zealand RNBZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2); – NZD (MED)
  • UK Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
  • US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (LOW)
  • US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2); – USD (LOW)
  • US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2). – USD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
18 Feb

USD/JPY Moderately Higher: Market Balances Between Data and Forecasts

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY rose to 153.50 on Wednesday. The yen gave up some of the gains from the previous session, despite strong foreign trade statistics.

Japan’s exports rose at their fastest pace in more than three years in January, driven by robust demand for AI-related chips. This data increased expectations of continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan.

At the same time, weak fourth-quarter GDP, which came in below forecasts and narrowly avoided a technical recession, is restraining optimism.

Investors believe Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s economic policy could support growth and indirectly strengthen the case for a gradual rate hike. The market is now pricing in the possibility of a tightening policy in April.

The IMF has previously stated that it does not set a specific target level for the yen, believing instead that the exchange rate is determined by market factors.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has entered a consolidation phase following a sharp drop from 157.50–158.00. The price is currently held in the range of 152.25–153.80. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed markedly, indicating that volatility is declining and the market is forming a base. The 153.80–153.95 area represents the nearest resistance. Support stands at 152.25. As long as the price remains below 153.80, the structure remains neutral to bearish.

On the shorter H1 time frame, there is a short-term local rebound from 152.80–153.00 with an attempt to exit towards the upper limit of the range. The price is approaching 153.90, where strong intraday resistance is forming. A break above 153.95 would open the way towards 154.60. Failure to break resistance could bring the pair back to 153.00 and then on to 152.25.

Overall, the market is compressing ahead of a potential move. A breakout of the range will set the direction for the next motion.

Conclusion

In summary, USD/JPY remains caught between conflicting fundamental factors: robust export data support BoJ normalisation expectations, but weak GDP and political uncertainty limit yen strength. Technically, the pair is coiling within a tightening range, signalling an imminent directional breakout. The neutral-bearish bias persists as long as the price holds below 153.80–153.95 resistance. A clear break above this level would target 154.60, while failure could trigger a retest of 152.25 support. With the BoJ’s April policy meeting in focus, the next significant move awaits a fresh catalyst.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
17 Feb

EURUSD Slides Smoothly: Fed Minutes in Focus

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EURUSD is moving smoothly downward and has touched 1.1840. Investors are preparing for the release of key US statistics that could affect expectations for the Fed’s future policy.

The focus is on the minutes of the last Fed meeting, a preliminary estimate of GDP, and the PCE core inflation index. The latter is a key policy gauge for the regulator.

The dollar came under pressure last week following softer inflation data, which increased expectations of rate easing in the second half of the year. However, a strong labour market report – showing the highest employment growth in more than a year and an unexpected decline in unemployment – pointed to the resilience of the economy.

The market is now pricing in the first rate cut in June. Overall, around 62 basis points of easing are expected for 2026, corresponding to two 25 bp reductions and roughly a 50% probability of a third step.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 time frame, EURUSD is consolidating after pulling back from January highs. The range has expanded, but the price is gradually moving towards its lower limit. The key level stands at 1.1835, an intermediate support within the wider range of 1.1765–1.2000. If it holds, sideways movement with attempts to correct upward is likely to persist. A break below 1.1835 would open the way to 1.1765. A return above 1.1890–1.1900 would ease bearish pressure and return the pair to the middle of the range.

Short-term downward pressure remains on the H1 chart for EURUSD. The price consistently forms lower highs and lows, trading near the bottom of the Bollinger Bands. The middle line acts as dynamic resistance.

The Stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone, which allows for local rebounds, but the MACD remains in negative territory – momentum is still on the side of sellers. The nearest support is at 1.1835. Securing below it would intensify the decline towards 1.1810–1.1800. Resistance stands at 1.1860–1.1870.

Conclusion

In summary, EURUSD remains under steady selling pressure as markets await pivotal US data that will shape Fed expectations. The pair is testing critical support at 1.1835, with technical indicators confirming bearish momentum despite oversold conditions. The fundamental picture is mixed: softer inflation points to eventual Fed easing, but robust employment data complicates the timeline. The near-term direction hinges entirely on today’s releases. A break below 1.1835 would likely accelerate losses towards 1.1765, while a rebound above 1.1890–1.1900 could signal a temporary respite. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
17 Feb

RBA minutes provide no clear guidance. Markets watch second round of US-Iran talks

By JustMarkets 

There was no trading on the US stock market on Monday.

European markets ended Monday mixed, maintaining the subdued momentum of the previous week as investors assessed the impact of a strong euro and expectations that benchmark rates will remain unchanged. Germany’s DAX (DE40) declined by 0.46%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.06%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.99%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.26%. Trading activity was low due to holidays in North America and China.

The Swiss franc (CHF) traded around 0.77 per US dollar, remaining near historic highs amid expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain a loose monetary policy in the near term. Safe-haven demand continues to provide additional support to the currency, though its influence has diminished slightly of late. Preliminary Q4 GDP data showed economic growth of 0.2% following a 0.5% contraction in Q3. This points to the relative resilience of the Swiss economy even under external pressure, including the 39% tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration.

On Tuesday, silver (XAG) fell by more than 2% to drop below $76 per ounce, continuing a three-week correction amid low liquidity due to holiday closures in China, Hong Kong, and several other Asian countries. The speculative surge in January, largely driven by Chinese traders, has been replaced by a sharp reversal, prompting regulators to take measures to mitigate market risks. After reaching record levels above $120 in late January, prices fell toward $64 early this month due to the closing of leveraged positions and forced asset liquidations.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fluctuated near $63 per barrel on Monday following two consecutive weeks of declines. Markets are monitoring the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran amid an increased US military presence in the region and tough rhetoric from Donald Trump. Iran, for its part, has signaled a readiness to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Despite the geopolitics, pressure on prices persists due to oversupply. OPEC+ nations are discussing a potential production increase in April, while the International Energy Agency confirmed its projections of a significant oil surplus in 2026 and lowered its estimate for global demand growth.

Asian markets traded without a uniform trend last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) will not trade for the entire week due to Lunar New Year celebrations, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.52%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.22%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) fell toward $0.70 after the publication of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes, which provided no clear guidance on the future interest rate trajectory. The regulator emphasized that future decisions will depend on incoming data and the balance of risks, noting that without further tightening, inflation could remain above the 2-3% target range for longer. Markets are now awaiting Q4 wage data and the January labor market report to assess the outlook for inflation and RBA policy.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,836.17 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,500.93 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 24,800.91 −113.97 (−0.46%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,473.69 +27.34 (+0.26%)

USD Index 97.07 +0.16% (+0.16%)

News feed for: 2026.02.17

  • Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
  • UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
  • UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
  • New Zealand Producer Price Index (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
13 Feb

Week Ahead: USDJPY braces for quadruple risk cocktail

By ForexTime

  • USDJPY ↓ 2.5% YTD
  • Yen expected to be one of the most volatile G10 currencies vs USD
  • US PCE + Japan CPI combo = fresh volatility?
  • Japan CPI forecast to trigger moves of ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 0.2%
  • Bloomberg FX model – 74% USDJPY – (150.21 – 155.26)

Even as anticipation builds ahead of the US CPI report this afternoon (Friday, 13th February), traders are bracing for more high-risk events in the week ahead.

From the Fed’s meeting minutes to the Japan CPI report and the US December PCE index, among other key reports will be in focus:

Monday, 16th February

  • US Markets closed for Presidents’ Day holiday
  • JPY: Japan Q4 GDP, industrial production
  •  EUR: Eurozone Industrial Production (Dec)
  • CAD: Canada Housing Starts (Jan)

 

Tuesday, 17th February

  • AUD: RBA Meeting Minutes
  • GBP: UK Unemployment Rate (Dec)
  • EUR: Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Feb)
  • JPY: Japan Balance of Trade (Jan)
  • USD: US Empire manufacturing

 

Wednesday, 18th February

  • GBP: UK Inflation Rate (Jan)
  • USD: FOMC Minutes, US Building Permits (Nov, Dec), Durable Goods Orders (Dec), Housing Starts (Nov, Dec)
  • NZD: New Zealand rate decision
  • Crude (WTI, Brent): US API Crude Oil Stock Change (w/e Feb 13)

 

Thursday, 19th February

  • AUD: Australia Employment Data (Jan)
  • USD: US Balance of Trade (Dec), Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Feb 14)
  • EUR: Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Feb)
  • Crude (WTI, Brent): US EIA Crude Oil stocks Change (w/e Feb 13)
  • US30: Walmart earnings

 

Friday, 20th February

  • GBP: UK Retail Sales (Jan), S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (Feb)
  • EUR: Germany HCOB Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMIs (Feb)
  • CAD: Canada Retail Sales (Jan)
  • JPY: Japan CPI, S&P Global manufacturing
  • USD: US PCE Price Index (Dec), GDP Growth Rate (Q4), Personal Income & Spending (Dec)

 

The USDJPY is back in focus thanks to a string of high-impact data releases from the United States and Japan.

Over the past few weeks, the USDJPY has exhibited heightened volatility amid concerns about intervention, political risk in Japan, and overall dollar volatility.

With the Yen expected to be one of the most volatile G10 currencies versus the USD next week, this could spell fresh trading opportunities.

 

 

Here are 3 reasons why the USDJPY could see significant swings:

 

1) Fed minutes + US December PCE

The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its Jan 27 – 28 meeting, when it held interest rates steady. Any new clues regarding future policy moves may impact expectations for lower rates over the coming months.

But the major risk event for the dollar may be the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the Core PCE.

Markets are forecasting the core PCE deflator to rise 2.9% in December compared to 2.8% in the previous month. Ultimately, signs of rising inflationary pressures may further cool bets around the Fed cutting rates anytime soon.

USDJPY is forecast to move 0.2% up or 0.3% down in a 6-hour window after the US PCE report.

 

2) Japan Q4 GDP + Japan CPI

It’s a data heavy week in Japan with the latest GDP figures and key CPI report likely to shape bets around the BoJ hiking rates.

Economic growth is expected to have rebounded in Q4, while CPI is seen cooling 1.6% in January compared to the 2.1% in the previous month.

Traders are currently pricing in a 78% chance that the BoJ hikes rates by April. Any major shifts to these expectations could rock the Japanese Yen.

 

3) Technical forces

The USDJPY is under pressure on the daily charts with prices approaching the 152.00 support level. However, the RSI is approaching oversold levels.

  •  A solid breakout and daily close below 152.00 may open a path toward the 200-day SMA at 150.50.
  •  Should 152.00 prove to be reliable support, this could send prices toward the 100 and 50-day SMA.

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 74.6% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 150.28 – 155.04 range over the next one-week period.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

 

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
13 Feb

EUR/USD Consolidates Ahead of US Inflation Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1868, remaining within a narrow sideways range for the fourth consecutive session. The market has adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of January’s US consumer price index. The report could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Forecasts suggest a slowdown in headline inflation to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.7%, while core inflation is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.6%.

Earlier in the week, strong employment data confirmed the resilience of the labour market, although recent jobless claims came in higher than expected. Investors are now pricing in rates remaining unchanged in March, followed by two 25-basis-point cuts in the second half of the year, in June and September.

The broader backdrop for EUR/USD remains clear: most Fed officials have adopted a wait-and-see stance and are not ready to resume rate cuts imminently. Despite previous easing and the current rate range of 3.50-3.75%, inflation remains below 3%, and the economy continues to demonstrate stability. January’s employment data only strengthens the case for a pause.

While some Fed policymakers support further easing, they remain in the minority. The market is shifting expectations for the first cut closer to July. For EUR/USD, this maintains structural support for the dollar. The pair’s next move will depend on inflation and signs of a real cooling in the US economy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD remains in a sideways consolidation phase following January’s upward momentum. The price is held within the 1.1785-1.1930 range and is currently trading near 1.1870. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, signalling declining volatility. The MACD is hovering near the zero line, indicating weak momentum, while the Stochastic oscillator remains neutral, without a clear directional signal. The market is trading in the middle of the range.

On the H1 chart, price action reflects a tight consolidation with occasional volatility spikes. Buyers quickly absorbed the latest downward move, but attempts to break above 1.1925 have failed. The price has stabilised near the midline of the Bollinger Bands. The MACD remains close to zero, and the Stochastic oscillator is turning lower in neutral territory. In the near term, range trading remains the preferred strategy.

Conclusion

In summary, EUR/USD remains in a state of consolidation, trapped in its narrowest range in weeks as markets await the crucial US inflation report. The pair is caught between two opposing forces: resilient US economic data and delayed Fed easing expectations (supporting the dollar), versus a relatively hawkish ECB stance and already priced-in policy divergence (supporting the euro).

 

Technically, compressed volatility and neutral indicators signal a breakout may be approaching, but its direction will depend entirely on tonight’s CPI outcome. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading would likely push the pair towards the lower boundary at 1.1785, while softer inflation could trigger a retest of resistance near 1.1930. Until then, the range remains the game.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
13 Feb

Silver fell by more than 10%. The Mexican peso reached its highest level since mid-2024

By JustMarkets 

On Thursday, the US stock market closed lower. The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.34%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped by 1.57%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed sharply lower by 2.03%. Early attempts at a rally quickly fizzled out amid ongoing pressure in the technology sector. Investors have become more skeptical regarding the scale and return on investment (ROI) of artificial intelligence infrastructure, triggering a sell-off in shares of major tech companies and software developers. Banks also faced pressure amid discussions regarding interest rates on credit products. The strong employment report released earlier in the week continued to weigh on expectations for an early Fed pivot, supporting bond yields and intensifying pressure on growth stocks. Meanwhile, defensive companies appeared more resilient than the broader market. Investors are now focused on upcoming inflation data, which may set the further direction for index dynamics.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened beyond 17.15 per dollar, reaching its highest level since mid-2024, driven by declining US yields and capital inflows into emerging market assets. Even after recent cuts, the Banxico rate remains near 7%, providing one of the highest real yields and supporting demand for peso-denominated bonds, while the regulator maintains a cautious tone regarding further easing.

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped toward $66,000, surrendering most of its recent gains amid general pressure on the digital assets market. Sentiment soured following warnings from Standard Chartered about potential further declines and weak earnings from Coinbase, which recorded a quarterly loss of $667 million alongside a revenue drop of more than 20%. Since its October peak above $126,000, Bitcoin has lost over 45%, and recovery attempts remain fragile, indicating a slump in speculative demand. Analysts warn that consolidating below the $60,000-$58,000 zone could intensify the sell-off, with a potential move toward levels around $40,000.

European equity markets mostly declined yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) edged down by 0.01%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.33%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.82%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.67%. European stocks ended Thursday lower, tracking the sell-off in North American markets fueled by concerns over AI investment returns and the prospect of the Fed maintaining a restrictive policy.

Silver (XAG) collapsed by nearly 10% to below $76 per ounce, continuing a sharp reversal amid broad liquidation of positions across financial markets. Investors sold off precious metals to free up liquidity; the decline occurred even as US Treasury yields fell, suggesting market stress and position closures rather than a reassessment of rate expectations. The pressure also affected gold and copper, amplifying the general decline in the commodities segment.

Natural gas (XNG) prices in the US rose toward $3.23 per MMBtu, supported by active LNG exports and a significant reduction in inventories. For the week ending February 6, 249 billion cubic feet (bcf) were withdrawn from storage, following a record 360 bcf the previous week – substantially higher than both last year’s level and the five-year average. Deliveries to LNG export terminals remain near record highs. However, a prognosed warming through the end of February could reduce heating demand and limit the potential for further price increases.

Asian markets declined on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.02%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.86%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.32%.

A quarterly survey by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) showed an increase in inflation projections for Q1 2026. Businesses expect inflation at 2.37% over a two-year horizon (up from 2.28% previously), while one-year expectations rose to 2.59% – a seven-quarter high. At the same time, respondents await the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to remain unchanged at 2.25% by the end of March 2026. Previously, the regulator cut the rate by 25 bps to 2.25% in November 2025.
The Malaysian economy grew by 6.3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, exceeding the initial estimate of 5.7% and accelerating from 5.4% in the third quarter. This marks the highest growth rate since Q4 2022, indicating a steady recovery in domestic demand and the external sector toward the end of the year. On a quarterly basis, GDP increased by 0.8% following a stronger 2.7% growth in the previous quarter, suggesting some loss of momentum. For the full year 2025, the country’s economy expanded by 5.2%, maintaining a robust growth pace despite regional and global volatility.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,832.76 −108.71 (−1.57%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,451.98 −669.42 (−1.34%)

DAX (DE40) 24,852.69 −3.46 (−0.014%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,402.44 −69.67 (−0.67%)

USD Index 96.92 +0.08% (+0.08%)

News feed for: 2026.02.13

  • Switzerland Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (HIGH)
  • Eurozone Employment Change (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2). – USD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
12 Feb

Strong employment data reduced expectations of imminent Fed easing

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock market closed with a decline. The Dow Jones Index (US30) lost 0.13%, though it hit a new all-time high at the session opening. The S&P 500 (US500) edged down by 0.01%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.16% lower. Strong employment data (NFP growth of 130k and a decrease in unemployment) confirmed the resilience of the labor market and lowered expectations for an early easing of Fed policy. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 130k due to private sector support, more than double the expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell.

Stock markets in Europe mostly declined yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) dropped by 0.53%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.18%, and the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell 0.43%. Conversely, the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 1.14% higher. European indices ended Wednesday without a clear trend amid mixed corporate earnings reports. Siemens Energy surged 8.5% due to a nearly threefold increase in profit, and Ferrari rose by more than 4%.
Platinum prices (XPT) are holding just above $2,100 per ounce, remaining under pressure near annual lows. Weak demand for autocatalysts and rising US yields are offsetting the impact of mining restrictions in South Africa, while existing inventories and recycling mitigate deficit risks. Additional pressure comes from strong US labor market statistics and expectations of delayed Fed rate cuts, which support the dollar and reduce investment interest in precious metals.

WTI prices rose more than 1% to above $65 per barrel, approaching highs not seen since September amid intensifying tensions surrounding Iran. The market is reacting to reports of a possible tightening of the US stance, which could jeopardize oil supplies if negotiations fail. However, gains were limited by EIA data showing US crude inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels – the highest jump in a year. Investors are also awaiting reports from OPEC and the IEA, where signals of a possible supply surplus this year are expected.

Asian markets rose confidently on Wednesday. While Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) did not trade, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.31%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.66%.

On Thursday, the offshore yuan (CNH) strengthened beyond 6.89 per dollar, extending its winning streak to a sixth session and hitting its highest level since May 2023. The currency is supported by statements from Xi Jinping regarding the ambition to elevate the yuan’s global status as a reserve currency. Since the beginning of last year, the dollar has weakened against the yuan by approximately 6%. However, growth is limited by the People’s Bank of China’s “moderately dovish” stance and weak inflation data: in January, CPI slowed to 0.2%, and producer price deflation narrowed to 1.4% – a one-and-a-half-year low.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose above $0.71, reaching a three-year high following hawkish signals from the RBA. Governor Michele Bullock stated a readiness for further rate hikes if inflation remains persistent, emphasizing that figures “starting with a three” are unacceptable. Inflation expectations rose to 5% in February, strengthening hawkish sentiment. The market is now pricing in the probability of a rate hike in May.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,941.47 −0.34 (−0.01%)

Dow Jones (US30) 50,121.40 −66.74 (−0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 24,856.15 −131.70 (−0.53%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,472.11 +118.27 (+1.14%)

USD Index 96.92 +0.12% (+0.13%)

News feed for: 2026.02.12

  • Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
  • UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
  • UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
  • UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
12 Feb

GBP/USD Regains Ground After US Data and Finds an Equilibrium

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD was trading at 1.3632 on Thursday. Sterling found an equilibrium point after volatility triggered by a stronger dollar following US labour market data.

The number of people employed in January increased by 130 thousand, marking the largest rise in more than a year. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%. Against this backdrop, investors have revised expectations for the Fed rate path. The market now fully prices in the first rate cut for July rather than June, and the probability of a move in March is estimated at less than 5%.

Partial support for the pound came from a decline in domestic political uncertainty. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer received the backing of key cabinet members and Labour Party representatives after the resignation of Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney amid the scandal surrounding Lord Peter Mandelson.

At the same time, market participants still expect further easing from the Bank of England. The regulator kept the rate at 3.75% but delivered softer guidance. It indicated that inflation could return to the 2% target from April.

Technical Analysis

The H4 chart for GBP/USD shows that after a brief rise to 1.3850, the pair entered a correction. A downward phase has formed, characterised by lower highs and lower lows. The price is now testing the 1.3580–1.3600 support zone. The Bollinger Bands are pointing downward, and volatility remains elevated. As long as the pair remains below 1.3710–1.3730, downside pressure is likely to persist.

On the lower H1 timeframe, a local recovery from 1.3580 is visible, but the structure remains neutral to bearish. The price is trading within the 1.3580–1.3650 range. The Bollinger Bands’ midline acts as short-term resistance. A sustained move above 1.3660 would open the way towards 1.3700. A move back below 1.3600 would increase the risk of a retest of recent lows.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD has stabilised following a sharp repricing of Fed expectations triggered by robust US jobs data. The pair found technical equilibrium near key support, with political relief at home providing some offsetting support for sterling. However, the broader technical structure remains corrective and neutral-to-bearish, with resistance capping recovery attempts. The near-term direction hinges on two factors: whether the 1.3580–1.3600 support zone holds, and any further divergence in tone between a patient Fed and an increasingly dovish Bank of England. Until GBP/USD reclaims 1.3660–1.3700, downside risks remain elevated.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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