InvestMacro

On Thursday, the US stock markets showed mixed dynamics. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.13%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.11%. The technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.11%. Despite the negative finish, the market managed to significantly trim the losses recorded in the first half of the session. A reason for local optimism was the report that Iran, together with Oman, is developing a technical protocol for monitoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This news gave investors hope for a partial restoration of trade routes, which somewhat cooled panic sentiment. In the corporate sector, the main focus was on Tesla, whose shares plunged 5% after the release of disappointing electric vehicle delivery data for the first quarter of 2026.

On Thursday, the Mexican peso (MXN) lost the progress achieved the day before, weakening to 17.88 per dollar. Fundamental pressure on the peso intensified due to the actions of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). At its latest meeting, the regulator resumed its easing cycle, cutting the key rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%. The decision was made by majority vote (3 to 2) amid clear signs of a slowdown in the Mexican economy at the start of 2026. The fact that the central bank cut rates despite accelerating inflation signals a prioritization of economic growth over price stability, reducing the peso’s attractiveness for carry‑trade strategies.

European stock markets mostly dropped yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.24%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.69%. The shift in sentiment occurred after Donald Trump’s address, which did not provide the expected specifics on de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf. Traders also took into account the factor of the long weekend, as European exchanges will be closed on Friday due to Easter celebrations, prompting many market participants to close positions in advance.

On Thursday, the Swiss franc (CHF) traded at 0.80 per US dollar, holding near its lowest levels since mid‑January amid the dominance of the US currency as the world’s primary safe haven. Despite the franc’s traditional status as a defensive asset, investors are favoring the dollar. Core inflation in Switzerland accelerated in March to an annual high of 0.3%, which slightly eased pressure on the SNB regarding policy easing, as rising energy prices due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf have begun to offset the restraining effect of the strong national currency on import costs.

On Thursday, silver prices (XNG) collapsed by nearly 5% to 71 dollars per ounce, marking a total decline of more than 20% since the start of the conflict on February 28. The sharp plunge in the precious metal was triggered by the strengthening of the US dollar after Donald Trump’s address, in which he promised to deliver an “extremely strong strike” on Iran in the coming weeks instead of the de‑escalation plan expected by the markets. The absence of a clear exit strategy from the war and Tehran’s denial of rumors about requesting a ceasefire forced investors to seek refuge in the US currency, which traditionally puts downward pressure on dollar‑denominated assets.

WTI crude prices surged by 11%, breaking above 111 dollars per barrel. This is the highest level in almost four years. An even more dramatic situation unfolded with the North Sea Brent blend, whose price broke above 140 dollars per barrel, approaching the historical record of 2008. Such a sharp spike occurred as markets reassessed the scale of threats to global supply due to the escalation of the military conflict in the Persian Gulf. The main catalyst for the rally was Donald Trump’s tough statements, in which he promised to intensify strikes on Iran’s military and energy infrastructure in the coming weeks if Washington’s conditions are not met. Tehran responded with counter‑threats, instantly erasing yesterday’s optimism. Against this backdrop, the United Kingdom initiated large‑scale negotiations with dozens of countries to form an international coalition to ensure the security of trade routes. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance is urgently considering the possibility of increasing production quotas to calm market panic. However, experts warn that in the short term, even additional oil volumes will not reach consumers as long as physical access to key regional terminals remains blocked or under threat of attack.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) showed negative dynamics on Thursday, falling below 2.81 dollars per MMBtu. Quotes approached the lows of August 2025, sharply contrasting with the rally in the oil market. The main driver of the decline was the weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which recorded a larger‑than‑expected increase in storage inventories. During the reporting week, energy companies injected 36 billion cubic feet of gas, significantly exceeding both the figure for the same period last year (30 billion) and the five‑year average (only 4 billion). At the moment, total US gas inventories have reached 1.865 trillion cubic feet. This is 5.4% above last year’s level and 3% above the five‑year average. Such a surplus creates a reliable “safety cushion” for the US domestic market, offsetting the impact of global geopolitical instability.

Asian markets rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.73%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.70%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.06%.

On Friday, the offshore yuan (CNY) slightly strengthened to 6.88 per dollar, although the pace of growth slowed compared to the previous session. Investors cautiously welcomed the news that Iran and Oman are developing a protocol for “transit monitoring” through the Strait of Hormuz, giving hope for partial resumption of shipping. Despite diplomatic efforts, China’s domestic economic data for March reflected a noticeable cooling of activity. According to a RatingDog report, the composite PMI fell to 51.5 from February’s 55.4, with a slowdown recorded in both the manufacturing sector (50.8) and services (52.1).

On Tuesday, the US stock markets ended with a powerful rally. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.48%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.72%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.16%. Investor optimism at the beginning of April was fueled by signals of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. Statements by Donald Trump that Iran had officially requested a ceasefire, and his readiness to withdraw troops within several weeks, provided the security of the Strait of Hormuz is ensured, became the key catalyst for the rally. This led to a sharp reduction of the geopolitical premium in oil prices, easing pressure on capital markets. However, the overall positive picture was overshadowed by a 15.6% drop in Nike shares – investors reacted extremely negatively to the company’s weak revenue guidance, which raised concerns about the sustainability of consumer demand in the retail sector.

The CAD strengthened to 1.39 per US dollar. The country’s manufacturing sector showed stagnation in March: the PMI fell to the critical level of 50.0. Zero growth is accompanied by a sharp increase in production costs and growing anxiety among Canadian manufacturers regarding possible trade tariffs from the United States. Such uncertainty in trade policy limits the recovery potential of the Canadian currency, despite the temporary calm in the Persian Gulf.

The Mexican peso showed a confident recovery, reaching 17.8 per US dollar. The main driver of growth was the return of global risk appetite amid signals of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. After an extremely volatile March, when the currency suffered from massive unwinding of carry-trade positions and investor flight into safe-haven assets, the weakening of the US dollar allowed the peso to recoup a significant portion of its losses.

On Thursday, Bitcoin fell by about 2.0%, settling at 66,512 dollars. The digital assets market reacted to the emergency address of US President Donald Trump to the nation, in which he summarized the interim results of “Operation Epic Fury.” Despite the overall rhetoric about the mission nearing completion, Trump threatened Iran with an “extremely strong strike” in the next two to three weeks if Tehran does not comply with Washington’s conditions.
European stock markets showed a sharp rise yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.73%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 2.10%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 3.11%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 1.85% higher.

On Wednesday, the US WTI crude oil futures ended trading at 99.60 dollars per barrel, recording a long-awaited drop below the psychological threshold of 100 dollars. Early April was marked by a wave of cautious optimism following Donald Trump’s statements about a possible end to the military operation in Iran within two to three weeks. The market reacted sensitively to news that Iranian leader Masoud Pezeshkian had officially requested a ceasefire, giving investors hope for de-escalation of the most acute energy crisis in recent years. Despite diplomatic glimmers, the US administration maintains a tough stance, setting an uncompromising condition: any peace talks will begin only after the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and recognized as safe for international shipping. This strategic waterway remains the main point of tension, as its blockade led to a record volume of oil fund trading at the end of March.

Asian markets rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) climbed 1.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 2.04%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 2.24%.

The NZD resumed its decline, falling to 0.571 US dollars and interrupting a two-day recovery. The main pressure factor was investor disappointment after Donald Trump’s prime-time address to the nation. Despite statements that the goals of “Operation Epic Fury” are almost achieved, the US President did not present a concrete plan for an immediate ceasefire. Although the RBNZ traditionally tries to “ignore” temporary price spikes, Breman made it clear that if inflation becomes persistent, the bank will have to raise interest rates again to prevent inflation expectations from rising.

On Tuesday, the US stock markets ended with a powerful rally. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 2.49%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 2.91%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 3.43%. Investor optimism was triggered by signals of possible diplomatic de‑escalation: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, during international contacts, confirmed Tehran’s readiness for a ceasefire. The main conditions from the Iranian side were the provision of firm international security guarantees, payment of reparations, and recognition of the country’s sovereign rights, which the market interpreted as the first real “exit” from the hot phase of the conflict. The leaders of the recovery were technology giants, the most sensitive to geopolitical risks: Nvidia shares rose by 5.6%, and Microsoft by 3.1%. Despite Tuesday’s positive close, March results remain extremely painful for investors: the S&P 500 ended the month down 5.3%, its worst result since 2022.

The Canadian dollar reached 1.395 per US dollar, updating its lowest levels since December of last year. Despite positive domestic statistics, Canada’s economy grew by 0.2% in February due to a recovery in the mining and financial sectors, but the national currency could not withstand the global dominance of the US dollar. The main factor behind the weakening of the loonie was the widespread flight of investors into safe‑haven assets amid the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. The situation is worsened by the fact that the traditional support for the Canadian dollar from high oil prices is being offset by concerns over global economic growth. Markets are pricing in a prolonged supply shock scenario, in which Canada’s benefit from expensive commodities is overshadowed by a general decline in risk appetite.

European stock markets showed growth yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.52%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.57%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.48% higher.

Silver (XAG) prices showed a local rise to 73 dollars per ounce. However, this short‑term interest does not change the catastrophic monthly dynamics: silver ends March with a decline of more than 20%, the worst monthly result in the past 14 years. At the moment, the asset is trading almost 40% below its historical highs recorded at the end of January 2026. Such a sharp collapse of the industrial and precious metals is due to a radical shift in the macroeconomic landscape caused by the war in the Middle East. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent energy shock (Brent oil above 115 dollars) turned inflation from a temporary factor into a long‑term threat. This forced investors to completely revise their expectations for interest rates: before the war, the market expected two Fed rate cuts in 2026, but now traders have fully ruled out such a scenario, pricing in the continuation of tight credit conditions.

WTI oil prices showed a corrective decline, falling to 100 dollars per barrel. Earlier in the session, prices reached a local peak of 107 dollars, but the market reacted to diplomatic signals from Tehran. The easing of tensions coincided with a tactical pause in US actions. President Donald Trump temporarily suspended direct strikes on Iranian territory, giving traders hope for a partial resumption of tanker traffic from GCC countries through the Strait of Hormuz. At the moment, shipping in this key chokepoint is almost paralyzed, and freight rates have reached multi‑year highs.

Asian markets traded without a unified trend yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.58%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.47%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.15%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.25%.

China’s manufacturing sector in March 2026 experienced a noticeable cooling of growth rates, according to the PMI business‑activity Index from RatingDog. The decline of the indicator to 50.8 (after February’s 52.1) was more pronounced than the market expected (prediction 51.6). Although the Index remains above the 50‑point threshold separating growth from stagnation, the report revealed serious structural challenges caused by global instability.

Monday’s trading session on US stock exchanges was characterized by increased volatility and a pronounced sectoral split. By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.11%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.39%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.73%. Despite Jerome Powell’s attempts to calm the markets by stating that the Federal Reserve does not plan to react to temporary spikes in energy prices, this only led to a local rise in the Dow Jones Index. The decline in US Treasury yields, which normally stimulates growth stocks, was unable to offset investor concerns about the security of Iran’s energy infrastructure and the stability of shipping routes through the Red Sea. Instead of buying cheaper tech assets, capital flowed into defensive instruments and energy companies. The elevated fear index confirms that market participants are not yet ready to believe in long‑term de‑escalation and prefer to hedge risks ahead of new developments from the conflict zone.

The Canadian dollar continues its downward trend, falling below 1.39 per US dollar and setting a new low since December of last year. Despite Canada being a major exporter of energy resources and global oil prices surging to 2022 levels due to the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the loonie is not receiving its usual support from the commodity rally. The main pressure factor is the global strengthening of the US dollar, which benefits from its “safe‑haven” status and expectations of continued Federal Reserve tightening.

European stock markets showed a confident rebound on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.92%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.99%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 1.61%. The main driver of growth was the temporary decline in government‑bond yields, which provided necessary support to indices during a period of strong oversold conditions. Despite the positive sentiment in equities, the situation in the energy sector remains extremely tense. Oil prices held at their 2022 peak levels due to ongoing threats from Houthi forces in the Red Sea and Donald Trump’s harsh rhetoric regarding a potential strike on Iran’s oil facilities. Nevertheless, investors temporarily shifted their focus from inflation risks to concerns about a broader slowdown in economic growth, triggering a decline in bond yields.

WTI oil prices are ending March with an unprecedented rally, settling at 101.7 dollars per barrel. Prices have risen more than 50% this month, a direct reaction to the full‑scale conflict in the Middle East that began in late February 2024. The main driver of fear in the market remains the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass. The situation escalated after Donald Trump shifted to a strategy of direct ultimatums. Despite his statements about “progress in negotiations” and a temporary halt to strikes until April 6, the US president clearly outlined targets for the next phase of the operation. If Iran does not immediately open the strait, power plants, oil wells, and the key export hub on Kharg Island will be targeted. Adding fuel to the fire is the expanding geography of hostilities: the involvement of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who attacked Israel and threatened Saudi infrastructure, has created the risk of a large‑scale regional conflagration. With maritime transport nearly paralyzed and Washington’s diplomatic proposals rejected by Tehran as “illogical,” analysts warn that a surge in oil prices to 120 dollars in April becomes a realistic scenario if strikes on Iranian refineries begin.

The XNG showed a sharp decline, falling more than 5% to 2.866 dollars per MMBtu. The main driver of the drop was updated meteorological expectations predicting unusually warm weather on the US East Coast in the first half of April. The expected warming effectively ends the heating season, sharply reducing gas demand from households and utilities. The geopolitical agenda related to Donald Trump’s ultimatums toward Iran and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz has only an indirect impact on the US gas market. Unlike oil prices, US natural gas prices remain insulated from Middle Eastern tensions in the short term due to the self‑sufficiency of the American energy system and the limited dependence of domestic prices on global LNG export flows.

Asian markets also mostly declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.79%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 0.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.81%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.65%.

On Tuesday, the AUD held near 0.686 US dollars, trading close to a two‑month low. March became the worst month for the aussie since late 2024, with a cumulative decline of about 3.6%. Although interest‑rate decisions supported the currency at the beginning of the month, by the end of the quarter, market sentiment shifted from fighting inflation to concerns about slowing global economic growth. Minutes from the March meeting of the RBA added uncertainty. After two rate hikes this year, the regulator acknowledged that the prolonged Middle East conflict creates a dual threat: on one hand, it fuels inflation through higher energy prices; on the other, it suppresses business activity. The RBA board emphasized the need for a delicate balance, causing investors to doubt the straightforwardness of further policy tightening.