Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 125

10 Jun

Trade of the Week: EURGBP bears ready pounce?

By ForexTime

Euro ↓ on political jitters

EURGBP hits 22-month low

UK Jobs report & EU data in focus

Technical level – 0.8500

Bloomberg FX model – 80% – EURGBP – (0.84065 – 0.85327)

Euro bears are back in action thanks to political uncertainty linked to the European Parliament elections.

The second most traded currency in the world is down against most of its major counterparts as of writing.

But our attention falls on the EURGBP which gapped to its lowest level since August 2022 at Monday’s Asian open!

The lowdown…

The euro seems to be gripped by political jitters in Europe.

Over the weekend, French President Emmanual Macron dissolved parliament and called for snap elections by the end of this month after his big defeat by the far right. Given how far-right parties have made big gains in the EU elections, this development has raised questions about Parliament’s ability to form the majorities needed to drive policy.

Looking beyond politics, here are 3 factors that could move the EURGBP this week:

1) UK data dump

In the United Kingdom, the latest jobs data and industrial production figures could influence expectations about when the Bank of England will cut rates.

Tuesday 11th June: UK May jobless claims, April unemployment rate

Wednesday 12th June: UK Industrial & manufacturing production

Traders are currently pricing in a 64% probability of a 25-basis point cut by September with a move fully priced in by November.

Should overall data from the UK exceed market forecasts, this could push back BoE rate cut bets – dragging the EURGBP lower.

Weaker-than-expected data may fuel BoE rate cut expectations that send the EURGBP higher.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the UK jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.25% or declines of 0.23% in a 6-hour window post-release.

2) EU data

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the first time since 2019.

The central bank clarified that a “data-dependent” approach will be adopted when considering future policy moves. This could increase the euro’s sensitivity to economic data, especially if it impacts ECB cut bets.

It may be worth keeping a tab on the Germany CPI (final) and Eurozone industrial production figures this week.

Traders are currently pricing in a 57% probability of a 25-basis point cut in September with this jumping to 77% by October.

The EURGBP could close the gap if data from Europe prints above market forecasts.

Should overall data disappoint, the EURGBP could extend losses as ECB cut bets rise.

3) Technical forces

The EURGBP is under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hit 30 – signalling that prices are oversold.

Sustained weakness below 0.8500 may encourage a decline towards 0.8400.

Should prices push back above 0.8500, this may open a path towards 0.8530.

Bloomberg’s FX model points to an 80% chance that EURGBP will trade within the 0.84065 – 0.85327 range over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Jun

Traders further lowered their expectations for a Fed interest rate cut this year

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.06% and fell to a 3-week low. The S&P 500 index (US500) was down 1.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.58%. Stocks declined amid rising bond yields driven by hawkish remarks from Fed officials. On Wednesday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the path to 2% inflation is not guaranteed and that the scope for price increases is still significant. This came from recent comments from Minneapolis FRB President Kashkari, who said the US Central Bank should hold off on cutting rates until inflation improves significantly. Markets are pricing in a 25 bps chance of a rate cut to 0% at the June 12 FOMC meeting and 10% at the next meeting on July 31.

The Richmond Fed’s May survey of the US manufacturing outlook rose 7 to a 7-month high, beating expectations of no change at negative 7. The Fed’s Beige Book was neutral for stocks, showing that the US economy has grown at a “slight to moderate” pace in most regions since early April. Employment grew at a modest pace, with eight of twelve counties reporting “slight to moderate job growth,” and prices rose at a “moderate pace,” with business officials noting that consumers are resisting additional price increases.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.10%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.86%.

The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for June rose by 3.1 to a 2-year high of negative 20.9, which was stronger than expectations of negative 22.5. May German CPI (EU harmonized) rose to 2.8% y/y, beating expectations of 2.7% y/y and the largest increase in 4 months. ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazaks said the ECB should not go on “autopilot” when cutting interest rates after the expected rate cut next week.

WTI crude oil prices held near $79 a barrel on Thursday after losing nearly 1% in the previous session, weakened by growing expectations that borrowing costs could remain high for longer, dampening the demand outlook. Commodities and other risk assets sold off on Wednesday, and bond yields rose as traders bet that the US Federal Reserve may delay the start of its easing cycle or even decide not to cut rates at all this year. Today, the EIA will release last week’s crude oil inventories report. A decline of 1.6m barrels is expected, which may support oil prices.

Asian markets were mostly rising on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.77%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.83% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.30%. In Asia, investors are awaiting the release of China’s PMI data for May on Friday to gauge the state of the world’s second-largest economy. On Wednesday, Chinese stocks rose after the IMF raised its growth prognoses to 5% from 4.6% this year thanks to strong first-quarter data and supportive policy measures.

The Australian dollar slid to $0.66, hitting its lowest level in two weeks, amid pressure from a strong US dollar and Treasury yields. Investors await the US PCE Price Index report later this week. Risk-sensitive currencies also followed broad declines in commodity prices and other risk assets.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,266.95 −39.09 (−0.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,441.54 −411.32 (−1.06%)

DAX (DE40) 18,473.29 −204.58 (−1.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,183.07 −71.11 (−0.86%)

USD Index 105.14 +0.52 (+0.50%)

Important events today:

– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:05 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Platinum & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Platinum & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (717 contracts) with Steel (441 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-5,001 contracts), Copper (-4,395 contracts), Palladium (-1,593 contracts) and with Silver (-780 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (96 percent) and Copper (90 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (83 percent), Steel (82 percent) and Platinum (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (83.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (83.0 percent)
Silver (95.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (96.6 percent)
Copper (90.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (94.3 percent)
Platinum (78.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (91.6 percent)
Palladium (5.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.3 percent)
Steel (81.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (79.8 percent)

Platinum & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (40 percent) and Gold (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (15.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (15.6 percent)
Silver (-4.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.3 percent)
Copper (2.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.7 percent)
Platinum (40.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (24.9 percent)
Palladium (-22.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.9 percent)
Steel (-0.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 237,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 236,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.6	18.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	78.1	4.7
– Net Position:	237,302	-265,931	28,629
– Gross Longs:	284,566	83,418	49,807
– Gross Shorts:	47,264	349,349	21,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	16.8	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.0	14.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	23.0	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	68.3	5.9
– Net Position:	56,403	-81,520	25,117
– Gross Longs:	88,604	41,280	35,798
– Gross Shorts:	32,201	122,800	10,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.5	1.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	-4.7	37.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 61,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	27.9	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	54.3	3.6
– Net Position:	61,127	-74,715	13,588
– Gross Longs:	142,712	79,249	23,922
– Gross Shorts:	81,585	153,964	10,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.2	6.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-7.3	35.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.6	20.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	49.2	4.1
– Net Position:	22,566	-28,123	5,557
– Gross Longs:	56,389	19,250	9,537
– Gross Shorts:	33,823	47,373	3,980
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	16.6	50.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.3	-35.5	-27.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	56.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.3	7.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-12,672	12,189	483
– Gross Longs:	7,342	14,165	2,266
– Gross Shorts:	20,014	1,976	1,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	7.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	94.8	70.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.1	18.4	30.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	77.4	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	60.8	1.4
– Net Position:	-3,888	3,922	-34
– Gross Longs:	4,111	18,328	303
– Gross Shorts:	7,999	14,406	337
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.5	19.6	28.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	0.6	-8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

08 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as only one out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra 10-Year Bonds with an increase by 33,731 contracts for the week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-195,920 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-77,320 contracts), Fed Funds (-77,263 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-66,580 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-59,326 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-55,603 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12,463 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (78 percent) and the Fed Funds (64 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (52 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (28 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (63.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (81.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (28.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (31.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (40.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (46.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (16.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (78.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (98.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (52.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (57.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (31.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (35.1 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (9 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for bonds.

The 5-Year Bonds (-29 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-17 percent) and the Fed Funds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-16.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-3.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-28.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (2.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-17.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-18.6 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -564,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -77,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -487,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	60.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	55.6	0.4
– Net Position:	-564,728	567,744	-3,016
– Gross Longs:	1,375,680	6,478,978	34,529
– Gross Shorts:	1,940,408	5,911,234	37,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	69.0	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.2	17.1	0.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -77,263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	63.5	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	62.6	2.5
– Net Position:	-12,980	12,406	574
– Gross Longs:	196,856	880,751	34,967
– Gross Shorts:	209,836	868,345	34,393
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.8	33.2	92.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	15.2	4.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,035,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -55,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -979,819 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	78.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	54.7	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,035,422	895,943	139,479
– Gross Longs:	516,364	2,997,360	268,526
– Gross Shorts:	1,551,786	2,101,417	129,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	68.2	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	2.9	5.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,573,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -195,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,377,117 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	85.0	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	61.9	4.7
– Net Position:	-1,573,037	1,439,949	133,088
– Gross Longs:	389,117	5,308,600	427,677
– Gross Shorts:	1,962,154	3,868,651	294,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	33.4	2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -454,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -66,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -388,175 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	67.3	9.0
– Net Position:	-454,755	443,655	11,100
– Gross Longs:	447,213	3,415,649	406,545
– Gross Shorts:	901,968	2,971,994	395,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	51.8	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	11.0	3.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -197,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 33,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	77.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	63.8	13.2
– Net Position:	-197,034	268,521	-71,487
– Gross Longs:	233,540	1,560,564	196,579
– Gross Shorts:	430,574	1,292,043	268,066
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	80.2	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-12.1	4.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -59,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	68.5	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	70.7	9.6
– Net Position:	-15,490	-36,259	51,749
– Gross Longs:	288,078	1,126,050	209,030
– Gross Shorts:	303,568	1,162,309	157,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	14.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-7.6	15.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -330,531 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -318,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	78.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	59.8	10.1
– Net Position:	-330,531	325,013	5,518
– Gross Longs:	147,782	1,351,715	179,644
– Gross Shorts:	478,313	1,026,702	174,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	55.8	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	11.4	12.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

08 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Coffee & Cocoa

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Coffee & Cocoa

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower overall this week as just two out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Coffee (4,616 contracts) with Cocoa (1,075 contracts) as the only other market showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-68,301 contracts), Soybeans (-26,081 contracts), Soybean Meal (-17,113 contracts), Cotton (-14,369 contracts), Sugar (-9,145 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,321 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,116 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,722 contracts) and with Wheat (-3,728 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (92 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (67 percent) and Wheat (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (4 percent), Soybean Oil (12 percent) and Corn (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (27.3 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (91.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.3 percent)
Soybeans (34.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (12.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (17.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (67.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (74.4 percent)
Live Cattle (37.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (44.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (40.9 percent)
Cotton (3.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.5 percent)
Cocoa (44.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.2 percent)
Wheat (54.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (57.5 percent)

Soybean Meal & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (34 percent) and Soybeans (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (18 percent), Live Cattle (7 percent) and Corn (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-27 percent), Sugar (-16 percent) and Coffee (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (19.5 percent)
Sugar (-16.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.8 percent)
Coffee (-4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.7 percent)
Soybeans (24.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-3.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (52.2 percent)
Live Cattle (7.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (19.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-42.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-35.2 percent)
Cotton (-26.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-33.6 percent)
Cocoa (4.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.3 percent)
Wheat (17.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -119,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -68,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	42.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	33.5	10.9
– Net Position:	-119,933	155,249	-35,316
– Gross Longs:	339,144	702,466	143,787
– Gross Shorts:	459,077	547,217	179,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	83.1	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-2.3	-30.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	53.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	51.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-4,040	12,341	-8,301
– Gross Longs:	193,811	469,221	69,222
– Gross Shorts:	197,851	456,880	77,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	13.9	-3.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 67,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	35.4	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	63.4	2.6
– Net Position:	67,649	-70,285	2,636
– Gross Longs:	84,948	88,759	9,069
– Gross Shorts:	17,299	159,044	6,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	8.3	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	4.8	-9.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,989 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	57.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	48.8	8.4
– Net Position:	-51,989	71,292	-19,303
– Gross Longs:	128,076	479,270	51,219
– Gross Shorts:	180,065	407,978	70,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.3	66.3	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-21.8	-37.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	54.2	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	48.5	4.9
– Net Position:	-36,585	32,683	3,902
– Gross Longs:	114,518	309,548	31,673
– Gross Shorts:	151,103	276,865	27,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	87.6	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	0.9	13.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 97,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 114,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	39.2	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	63.8	5.7
– Net Position:	97,408	-117,328	19,920
– Gross Longs:	151,919	186,344	47,039
– Gross Shorts:	54,511	303,672	27,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	31.2	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.0	-34.0	12.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	33.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	49.5	12.7
– Net Position:	54,133	-45,886	-8,247
– Gross Longs:	115,314	97,046	28,476
– Gross Shorts:	61,181	142,932	36,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	66.6	45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-7.4	-2.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	39.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	40.1	8.9
– Net Position:	5,546	-2,865	-2,681
– Gross Longs:	80,913	109,683	22,185
– Gross Shorts:	75,367	112,548	24,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.2	66.2	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.0	40.2	29.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	46.4	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	43.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-6,691	7,750	-1,059
– Gross Longs:	67,396	107,335	12,729
– Gross Shorts:	74,087	99,585	13,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	95.6	9.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.8	26.3	-19.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	34.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	60.6	3.4
– Net Position:	33,645	-40,799	7,154
– Gross Longs:	48,643	53,704	12,460
– Gross Shorts:	14,998	94,503	5,306
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	51.1	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-5.4	11.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,728 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	37.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	31.8	9.2
– Net Position:	-18,121	25,545	-7,424
– Gross Longs:	121,898	163,904	32,453
– Gross Shorts:	140,019	138,359	39,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	45.7	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-14.6	-24.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by MSCI EAFE & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & Nasdaq

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,955 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (5,723 contracts), the VIX (1,469 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (73 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-62,792 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-4,858 contracts) and with the Russell-Mini (-510 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (70 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (42 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (70.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (68.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (81.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (42.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (33.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (60.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (66.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (66.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (55.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (41.2 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (2 percent) and the Russell-Mini (1 percent) lead the past six weeks and are the only positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-20 percent) coming in as the next market with the lowest trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-25.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (-21.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-11.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (2.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-6.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-19.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (3.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-1.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-7.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-19.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	39.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	29.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-41,275	41,985	-710
– Gross Longs:	95,865	166,555	30,228
– Gross Shorts:	137,140	124,570	30,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	25.6	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	20.4	23.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -62,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	71.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	73.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-65,000	-47,092	112,092
– Gross Longs:	265,433	1,534,557	287,673
– Gross Shorts:	330,433	1,581,649	175,581
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	33.4	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	19.7	-4.0

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	58.3	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	68.5	12.3
– Net Position:	8,286	-10,195	1,909
– Gross Longs:	21,008	58,709	14,251
– Gross Shorts:	12,722	68,904	12,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	23.4	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-3.6	5.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	56.4	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	61.7	13.1
– Net Position:	1,997	-13,027	11,030
– Gross Longs:	60,252	139,142	43,392
– Gross Shorts:	58,255	152,169	32,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	38.2	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	6.0	-3.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	72.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	67.5	4.5
– Net Position:	-34,355	25,469	8,886
– Gross Longs:	86,068	342,253	29,881
– Gross Shorts:	120,423	316,784	20,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	36.8	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-3.0	9.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	63.8	23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	64.6	13.1
– Net Position:	-1,563	-128	1,691
– Gross Longs:	1,569	9,996	3,740
– Gross Shorts:	3,132	10,124	2,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.8	25.6	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-1.0	5.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	89.4	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	88.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-10,414	3,828	6,586
– Gross Longs:	29,922	369,758	11,866
– Gross Shorts:	40,336	365,930	5,280
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	41.0	49.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	5.7	6.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

07 Jun

Market awaits NFP data: Euro/Dollar consolidates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

At the end of the week, the US dollar is hovering around an eight-week low against the euro, but trading activity remains subdued. Everyone is conserving energy ahead of this evening’s May employment data from the US. These reports are expected to provide more insight into the timing of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points, from 4.50% to 4.25% per annum. The euro retained its daily gains. The ECB gave few indications about its future steps, and the market remains uncertain whether there will be further rate cuts. Persistent inflationary pressures dim the prospects for the ECB.

In its comments, the ECB mentioned that the consumer price index will remain above the target of 2% until the end of next year.

The market is preparing for relatively soft non-farm payroll (NFP) data from the US. The final figure may fall below the forecast of 185,000.

Investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s decisions are constantly shifting. The market now predicts the first rate cut in September, followed by another in November.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed an initial wave of decline to 1.0854 and a correction up to 1.0901. We expect the start of a new wave of decline to the level of 1.0833. A break below this level will open the potential for a wave down to 1.0760, with a trend continuation prospect to 1.0750. This first target of the decline wave is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is at its peak and ready to continue descending.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.0882. An expansion of the range to 1.0908 is possible. After reaching this level, we will consider the likelihood of a new wave of decline to 1.0882. A break below this level will open the potential for a wave down to 1.0835, with a trend continuation prospect to 1.0765. This local target is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below the level of 80. We expect a decline to the level of 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Jun

The Bank of Canada has started a cycle of rate cuts. Today the same step is expected from the ECB

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose 0.25%, while the S&P 500 (US500) rose 1.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday at a positive 1.96%. Stock indices rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 setting new all-time highs and the Dow Jones Industrials rising to a 1-week high. The strength in chip maker stocks on Wednesday led tech stocks higher and was a positive for the broader market. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) surged 5% to a record high, surpassing a market value of $3 trillion, after briefly outperforming Apple (AAPL) during the intraday session. Additionally, technology stocks were supported by some positive corporate news on Wednesday, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPQ) reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.

Friday will see the release of the monthly US payrolls report for May, looking for clues about the labor market’s strength that will prompt when the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates. The consensus expects non-farm payrolls for May to increase by 190,000 and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.9%.

The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.37 per dollar, hitting one-month lows, as investors assessed the Bank of Canada’s latest rate decision. The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% at its June meeting, marking a departure from 11 consecutive months of the highest interest rates in the tightening cycle as expected. The decision was reinforced by recent data pointing to continued disinflation towards the target level, prompting the central bank to adopt a less stringent policy stance. The decision was also influenced by lower-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter and a softer labor market.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.93%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.87%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.59%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.18% on Wednesday. European stocks extended early gains, recovering from losses in the previous session, as markets anticipated improved credit conditions in the eurozone ahead of the ECB’s decision.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. With almost a 100 percent probability, the ECB will cut the rate by 0.25%. With a 25 basis point rate cut already virtually promised by policymakers, market watchers will focus on what ECB President Christine Lagarde says. Ms. Lagarde will likely say that future rate cuts will be “data dependent.” But in a news release, the euro could rise because the latest wage data could boost inflation going forward, and Lagarde will mention that.

WTI crude oil prices rose 1.1% on Wednesday, breaking a five-day losing streak. That rise was fueled by optimism about a possible Fed rate cut in September, which outweighed a rise in US oil and fuel inventories. There is a 69% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in September, which could stimulate economic activity and boost oil demand. EIA data showed that US crude inventories rose by 1.233 million barrels last week, a reversal after a 4.156 million barrel decline the previous week and contrary to market expectations for a 2.3 million barrel decline.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.89%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.10% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.41%.

Board member Toyoaki Nakamura said in a speech that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current monetary policy settings as the impact of wage growth on inflation remains weak. Nakamura was one of two dissenters when the board voted to remove the negative interest rate in March and implemented the first rate hike in 17 years.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,354.03 +62.69 (+1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,807.33 +96.04 (+0.25%)

DAX (DE40) 18,575.94 +170.30 (+0.93%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,246.95 +14.91 (+0.18%)

USD Index 104.32 +0.21 (+0.20%)

Important events today:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Rate Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Jun

Gold prices reach 2368 USD amid speculation of Fed rate cuts

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices climbed to 2368 USD per troy ounce on Thursday, continuing the upward momentum for the second session. This surge comes as market expectations adjust to the likelihood of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, fuelled by recent employment data.

Data from ADP indicated that the number of private-sector jobs in the US for May increased less than expected, with April’s figures also revised downwards. This suggests a cooling but robust employment market, reinforcing speculation about impending rate cuts. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market participants anticipate two rate cuts in 2024, with a 70% probability of easing by September.

Attention is now turning to Friday’s comprehensive labour market reports from the US, which will provide further insights into the economic health and possible direction of monetary policy. Additionally, recent global movements by central banks, such as the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut in four years and the expected rate cut by the European Central Bank today, are influencing gold prices.

XAU/USD technical analysis

The H4 chart shows that gold has broken out of a consolidation range established above the 2315.00 USD level, moving upwards. The market is now poised to reach 2395.00 USD potentially. Once this target is met, a retraction to 2356.20 USD for a test from above could occur before another possible rise to 2399.00 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with its signal line below zero but ascending sharply towards new highs.

On the H1 chart, gold developed a growth wave towards 2356.20 USD, followed by a consolidation range forming below this level. The market has since broken upwards, continuing the growth trajectory towards 2378.23 USD. After reaching this level, a corrective movement back to 2356.20 USD may occur, potentially setting the stage for a push towards the 2395.00 USD mark. The Stochastic oscillator indicates that, while the signal line has dipped below 80, it is expected to rise again towards 80, suggesting continued upward momentum.

Market outlook

Gold prices are experiencing a bullish phase, underpinned by shifting expectations regarding US monetary policy and actions by other central banks. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming US employment data and global central bank decisions. These events could significantly influence gold’s price dynamics in the short term. The technical indicators suggest a continuation of the current uptrend, with key levels to watch for potential reversals or further gains.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

05 Jun

Australia’s economy is slowing down. The BoC meeting is in the spotlight today

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.36%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.15%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.17% yesterday. The April JOLTS job openings number fell more than expected to a 3-year low, pushing 10-year T-note yields to a 2-week low and reinforcing expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The April JOLTS US Job Openings Index fell by 296,000 to a 3-year low of 8.059 million, indicating a weak labor market compared to expectations of 8.350 million.

Weakness in energy stocks weighed on the overall market on Tuesday after WTI crude fell more than 1% to a 3-month low on concerns that OPEC+’s plan to bring oil production back to the market sooner than expected will lead to a glut in global oil supplies.

Friday will see the release of the monthly US payrolls report for May, looking for signs of labor market strength that could decide when the Fed can start cutting interest rates. The consensus is that non-farm payrolls for May will increase by 190,000, and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.9%.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. In April, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate at 5% as expected and refrained from hinting at the start of rate cuts due to rising inflation risks. However, the latest GDP report showed that the Canadian economy has not recovered as much from the soft period last year as previously thought and may convince the central bank to start lowering borrowing costs. Thus, the Bank of Canada could deliver a surprise 0.25% rate cut.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.09%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.75%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.97%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.37% on Tuesday. European equity markets opened higher on Wednesday as investors await the European Central Bank’s decision this week. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday for the first time since 2019, but markets will be watching to see if last week’s Eurozone inflation data will influence the ECB’s decision.

Germany’s unemployment rate change for May rose by 25,000, the largest increase in 7 months, and showed a weaker labor market than expected at 7,000. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at Thursday’s ECB meeting to 99%. If the ECB cuts rates by 25 bps on Thursday, markets expect a 0% chance of another rate cut at the next meeting on July 18 and a 62% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the September 12 meeting.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.22%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.22% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.31%. Hong Kong (HK50) stocks were up 0.4% in early trading on Wednesday, rising for a third session amid growing hopes of fresh supportive measures from China as the country’s regulator unveils capital market policy measures at a high-level forum in Shanghai on Saturday. Investors also welcomed private survey data that showed activity in the mainland’s service sector rose by the most in 10 months in May, rising for the 17th month and matching official data.

In Japan, real wages fell for the 25th consecutive month in April, with domestic inflation continuing to outpace wage growth. It also became known that the Bank of Japan is likely to discuss reducing bond purchases at its meeting next week. These are positive factors for the Japanese yen.

In the first quarter, the Australian economy grew by 0.1%, slowing down from the growth of 0.3% in the previous quarter and failing to meet market forecasts of 0.2%. Investors breathed a sigh of relief as the economy avoided an outright recession. Nevertheless, markets see little chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) easing policy this year, with the probability of that happening in December at 44%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,291.34 +7.94 (+0.15%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,711.29 +140.26 (+0.36%)

DAX (DE40) 18,405.64 −202.52 (−1.09%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,232.04 −30.71 (−0.37%)

USD Index 104.16 +0.02 (+0.02%)

Important events today:

– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Caixin China Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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