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COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (47,762 contracts) with the Fed Funds (10,305 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,441 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (2,132 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-32,797 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-17,661 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,105 contracts) and with the SOFR 3-Months (-2,447 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (66 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (53 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (26 percent) and the Fed Funds (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (32.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (53.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (48.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (65.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (71.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (38.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (44.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (50.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (50.3 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (26 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-19 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-53.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-64.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-19.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-15.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-19.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-16.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-16.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (10.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (7.6 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -195,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -193,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	59.1	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	57.0	0.3
– Net Position:	-195,837	198,662	-2,825
– Gross Longs:	1,417,167	5,579,165	22,337
– Gross Shorts:	1,613,004	5,380,503	25,162
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.2	49.9	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-10.8	0.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -140,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	70.1	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	62.0	2.3
– Net Position:	-140,133	134,927	5,206
– Gross Longs:	150,656	1,177,839	43,053
– Gross Shorts:	290,789	1,042,912	37,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	59.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.3	48.0	30.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,261,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,263,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	77.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	51.2	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,261,457	1,109,570	151,887
– Gross Longs:	603,469	3,236,642	272,091
– Gross Shorts:	1,864,926	2,127,072	120,204
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	83.7	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.0	20.1	7.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,486,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -32,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,453,400 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	63.4	4.6
– Net Position:	-1,486,197	1,312,975	173,222
– Gross Longs:	428,361	5,246,055	458,883
– Gross Shorts:	1,914,558	3,933,080	285,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.2	90.9	99.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	5.0	19.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -319,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 47,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -367,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	78.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	71.7	8.7
– Net Position:	-319,844	279,162	40,682
– Gross Longs:	432,627	3,385,365	416,843
– Gross Shorts:	752,471	3,106,203	376,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	30.8	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-9.2	9.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -153,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	76.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.3	12.8
– Net Position:	-153,702	216,236	-62,534
– Gross Longs:	251,270	1,577,581	200,003
– Gross Shorts:	404,972	1,361,345	262,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	63.8	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.6	-36.0	5.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,337 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	69.1	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	70.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-50,998	-22,466	73,464
– Gross Longs:	282,898	1,136,639	213,802
– Gross Shorts:	333,896	1,159,105	140,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	19.5	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	8.2	30.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -368,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -354,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	79.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	59.2	9.6
– Net Position:	-368,340	347,830	20,510
– Gross Longs:	141,829	1,347,454	181,733
– Gross Shorts:	510,169	999,624	161,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	67.3	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	14.3	11.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

29 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar, Cotton & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Cotton & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (18,663 contracts) with Cotton (3,789 contracts) and Coffee (3,163 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-93,072 contracts), Soybeans (-36,877 contracts), Soybean Oil (-28,553 contracts), Wheat (-17,962 contracts), Lean Hogs (-11,565 contracts), Soybean Meal (-11,451 contracts), Cocoa (-4,384 contracts) and Live Cattle (-3,732 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (95 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (64 percent) comes in as the next highest market.

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Cotton (3 percent), Lean Hogs (8 percent), Corn (12 percent) and Sugar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (12.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (24.1 percent)
Sugar (13.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.4 percent)
Coffee (94.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (91.7 percent)
Soybeans (20.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (29.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (15.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (64.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (69.0 percent)
Live Cattle (31.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (35.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (7.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (17.4 percent)
Cotton (2.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (39.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.4 percent)
Wheat (36.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (49.1 percent)

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (13 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (4 percent), Soybean Meal (3 percent) and Cocoa (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-48 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-27 percent), Corn (-22 percent) and Cotton (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-21.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.8 percent)
Sugar (3.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.3 percent)
Coffee (13.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.5 percent)
Soybeans (-10.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-3.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (11.3 percent)
Live Cattle (4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (9.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-48.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-43.8 percent)
Cotton (-20.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-24.1 percent)
Cocoa (1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.3 percent)
Wheat (-27.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -169,783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -93,072 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	43.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	30.8	11.6
– Net Position:	-169,783	193,911	-24,128
– Gross Longs:	350,579	661,385	151,802
– Gross Shorts:	520,362	467,474	175,930
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	88.2	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	20.4	21.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,663 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	55.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	60.4	8.2
– Net Position:	37,187	-43,286	6,099
– Gross Longs:	180,313	445,248	72,600
– Gross Shorts:	143,126	488,534	66,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	85.0	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-8.6	26.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	33.6	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	69.0	2.2
– Net Position:	70,712	-73,719	3,007
– Gross Longs:	85,222	69,889	7,628
– Gross Shorts:	14,510	143,608	4,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.8	5.0	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-13.6	8.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -111,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -36,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	57.8	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	42.2	7.9
– Net Position:	-111,179	118,244	-7,065
– Gross Longs:	132,269	438,467	52,892
– Gross Shorts:	243,448	320,223	59,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	78.0	94.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	9.1	22.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -75,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -28,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	55.4	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	42.4	5.4
– Net Position:	-75,739	75,083	656
– Gross Longs:	119,940	321,287	31,856
– Gross Shorts:	195,679	246,204	31,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.8	-10.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 89,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	38.4	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	58.8	6.2
– Net Position:	89,981	-101,575	11,594
– Gross Longs:	148,158	191,411	42,356
– Gross Shorts:	58,177	292,986	30,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.3	37.5	7.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	3.1	-67.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,447 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	31.2	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	44.9	12.1
– Net Position:	48,715	-40,548	-8,167
– Gross Longs:	121,955	93,017	27,814
– Gross Shorts:	73,240	133,565	35,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	73.2	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-3.4	-6.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	40.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	30.2	8.5
– Net Position:	-26,470	27,687	-1,217
– Gross Longs:	80,465	107,333	21,319
– Gross Shorts:	106,935	79,646	22,536
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	93.6	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-48.1	51.3	19.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	49.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	37.4	5.9
– Net Position:	-23,975	25,842	-1,867
– Gross Longs:	60,552	105,223	10,719
– Gross Shorts:	84,527	79,381	12,586
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	97.9	4.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	18.5	1.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	36.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	63.2	3.8
– Net Position:	29,357	-35,345	5,988
– Gross Longs:	43,025	49,716	11,159
– Gross Shorts:	13,668	85,061	5,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	56.6	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-1.8	3.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	41.0	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	29.4	9.3
– Net Position:	-44,532	46,557	-2,025
– Gross Longs:	119,255	164,798	35,487
– Gross Shorts:	163,787	118,241	37,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	61.3	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.2	24.0	29.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

29 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (48,863 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (11,220 contracts), the Russell-Mini (7,827 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (288 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-11,606 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,331 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-2,038 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by the DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (59 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (55 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (38 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (49.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (61.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (47.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (59.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (50.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (33.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (49.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (38.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (35.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (40.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (43.1 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (3 percent) was the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-14.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-11.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-6.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-15.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-26.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-11.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (6.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-12.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-12.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-14.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-18.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-15.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-8.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -61,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	45.7	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	30.4	7.1
– Net Position:	-61,035	63,589	-2,554
– Gross Longs:	76,905	189,466	27,000
– Gross Shorts:	137,940	125,877	29,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	49.4	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	17.3	-13.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 48,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	70.9	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	73.2	7.9
– Net Position:	-65,247	-46,099	111,346
– Gross Longs:	271,908	1,400,848	266,961
– Gross Shorts:	337,155	1,446,947	155,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	33.5	83.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	3.7	5.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	60.6	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	62.2	13.8
– Net Position:	-514	-1,345	1,859
– Gross Longs:	16,170	51,415	13,578
– Gross Shorts:	16,684	52,760	11,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	36.3	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	25.9	-8.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,220 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	52.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	60.1	12.2
– Net Position:	7,395	-18,260	10,865
– Gross Longs:	67,869	129,886	41,034
– Gross Shorts:	60,474	148,146	30,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	32.5	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-7.9	7.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -50,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	78.1	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	67.7	4.7
– Net Position:	-50,021	43,649	6,372
– Gross Longs:	59,883	327,132	26,052
– Gross Shorts:	109,904	283,483	19,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	48.5	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.0	-8.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	67.5	27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	38.6	19.8
– Net Position:	-4,901	3,918	983
– Gross Longs:	734	9,151	3,667
– Gross Shorts:	5,635	5,233	2,684
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	53.8	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	18.0	-7.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	89.2	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	84.9	1.1
– Net Position:	-24,818	17,870	6,948
– Gross Longs:	31,609	369,935	11,558
– Gross Shorts:	56,427	352,065	4,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	55.4	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-3.4	3.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

28 Jun

Is a China-Taiwan Conflict Likely? Watch the Region’s Stock Market Indexes

By Mark Galasiewski | Elliott Wave International

The U.S. government in early May sanctioned 300 Chinese entities for supplying machine tools and parts to Russia for its war against Ukraine, while in mid-May Russian president Vladimir Putin made a two-day visit to China. In turn I found myself thinking about how tensions between China and the United States could lead to open conflict, specifically over Taiwan.

The likelihood of conflict depends in part on the region’s social mood, as reflected in Asia’s stock market indexes. When social mood is negative, countries are more likely to behave aggressively.

Tensions in the region have been high. On May 23, China conducted a military drill that sent 111 warplanes plus several navy destroyers and frigates close to Taiwan and its outer islands. China said the drill meant to punish Taiwan for an offense committed by its new head of state, Lai Ching-te, who used his May 20 inauguration speech to suggest that Taiwan is not part of China.

Yet China appeared to end the provocative move after just two days, much like Iran quickly ended its reprisal drone attack on Israel in April. Both examples reflect the desire to limit the scope of new conflicts, consistent with the improving social mood and burgeoning rally in emerging markets.

As our “Bull versus Bear” chart shows, the mood in Taiwan remains positive amid the global tech boom: The Taiwan Index rose right through the military drill. In contrast, the mood in China remains severely negative, as reflected in the Shanghai Composite’s long-term pattern. That does raise the risk of Chinese aggression — or at the least increases the risk of accidents and miscalculations. As Singapore’s deputy prime minister Gan Kim Yong recently said at the Nikkei Forum in Tokyo, bad outcomes tend to follow during periods “when each side views the other as an adversary.”

Some geopolitical observers frame the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a proxy battle in a new cold war between the United States and its democratic allies, versus the China-dominated axis of autocratic states that includes Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Long-term charts offer perspective.

In 2020, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan Index ended a 26-year sideways pattern, while the MSCI World Ex-U.S. Index ended its own, similar 20-year-long sideways trend. This two-decade period is comparable to the 1929-1949 corrective period in the U.S. stock market. The Covid pandemic erupted toward the end of the triangless much like the 1948-1955 polio epidemic spread across the globe and killed half a million people a year at its peak.

The first proxy battle in the current cold war — Russia-Ukraine — erupted two years post-Covid during the correction in the index, much like the first proxy battle — the Korean War — in the earlier Cold War erupted in 1950 and lasted until 1953. The Russia-Ukraine war could follow that precedent by ending in a stalemate sooner than most observers imagine, even as the developing bull market in world ex-U.S. stocks contributes to years of relative peace. Then, once China becomes much stronger militarily, the next proxy battle in the cold war rivalry — perhaps over Taiwan — would be analogous to the Vietnam War when the U.S. dramatically escalated the fighting in 1965 and pulled out eight years later, as the communist government of North Vietnam in turn took over South Vietnam to reunite the country.

We’re watching the region’s stock market indexes closely.

If you’d like to learn more about Elliott wave price patterns, including the triangles mentioned above, EWI has made available the entire online version of the book Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Jun

Today, the focus of investors’ attention is on the PCE index data

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock indices ended trading with an increase. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.09% on Thursday, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.30%. Stocks were supported amid weaker-than-expected US economic reports that lowered bond yields and reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year.

Markets are awaiting Friday’s release of PCE deflator data for May, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to see if price pressures are easing. The year-over-year PCE Index is expected to fall to 2.6% from 2.7%. On a monthly basis, it is expected to rise 0.1%. The latest PCE Index data did not match expectations — US inflation unexpectedly halted in April. Overall, if the PCE Price Index report shows a further decline in inflationary pressures, it could further reinforce expectations of a Fed rate cut (70% as of today). This would likely hurt the US dollar. But suppose the inflation data does not show progress in reducing inflationary pressures. In that case, the likelihood of a rate cut in September would decrease, which would play into the hands of the US dollar and have a negative impact on risk assets and precious metals.

Boeing (BA) is up more than 2% after reporting that China’s safety regulator has cleared it to resume deliveries of wide-body airplanes to China.

Bitcoin stabilized above the $61,000 mark on Friday after falling to a near two-month low earlier this week amid renewed inflows into the US spot bitcoin ETFs. Data showed that inflows into the US spot bitcoin ETFs turned positive on June 25 and 26 after seven consecutive days of outflows. US fund assets also increased from $47 billion in early May to more than $52 billion as of June 26.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.30%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday down 1.03%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.72%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.55%. The Eurozone Economic Confidence Index for June unexpectedly fell 0.2 to 95.9 versus expectations of a rise to 96.1. Eurozone M3 money supply for May rose 1.6% y/y, exceeding expectations of 1.5% y/y and the largest increase in 14 months. ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazimir said yesterday that he still sees significant upside risks to inflation, and the ECB can expect only one more interest rate cut this year. Swaps discount the odds of an ECB rate cut by 25 bps at 9% for the July 18 meeting and 67% for the September 12 meeting.

The UK economy grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024, slightly above initial estimates of 0.6%. This is the strongest growth in two years, ending the recession that began last year. Services grew by 0.8%, up from 0.7% in the first estimate. The manufacturing sector grew by 0.6%, down from the 0.8% previously reported.

Sweden’s Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but changed its estimate for further rate cuts this year to “two or three” from two. Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen said the inflation outlook had become more positive, especially for inflation expectations and wage growth, but two or three cuts were “an estimate, not a promise.” The Riksbank became one of the first major central banks to begin easing monetary policy this cycle in May when it cut rates by 25 basis points.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $82 a barrel on Friday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East overshadowed uncertainty on the demand side. Tensions between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah have escalated after Hezbollah stepped up rocket fire and drone attacks on northern Israel in recent weeks, putting additional pressure on an Israeli government already mired in a war with Hamas. Major oil producer Iran may be drawn into the wider conflict, while Turkish President Erdogan expressed solidarity with Lebanon and called for regional support.

Asian markets were predominantly decreasing yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.82%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 2.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.30%.

Japan’s Core Consumer Price Index in Tokyo in June 2024 rose by 2.1% year-on-year in June, beating market expectations and the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, strengthening the case for the central bank to continue policy normalization. Tokyo’s core inflation rate also accelerated for the second consecutive month after rising 1.6% in May. The Bank of Japan has been under sustained pressure to raise interest rates again as rising wages have boosted consumption. The Central Bank is also expected to defend its currency as the yen fell to a 38-year low, pushing up the cost of imports. Tokyo’s inflation data is widely seen as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,482.87 +4.97 (+0.091%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,164.06 +36.26 (+0.093%)

DAX (DE40) 18,210.55 +55.31 (+0.30%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,179.68 −45.65 (−0.55%)

USD Index 106.05 +0.44 (+0.41%)

Important events today:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Jun

Week Ahead: FRA40 braced for French elections

By ForexTime

H2 kicks off with French/UK elections, ECB forum & NFP

FRA40 ↓ 5.4% since Macron call for snap election

National Rally currently leading polls

Index bearish on D1 but RSI near oversold

Key points of interest – 7700, 200-day SMA, 7470

An exceptional list of high-risk events may rattle global markets in the week ahead!

The second half of 2024 kicks off with elections in France and the United Kingdom, to the ECB forum and US jobs report among other key data:

Sunday, 30th June

CN50: China manufacturing & non-manufacturing PMIs
USDInd: New York Fed President John Williams speech
FRA40: First round of French legislative elections

Monday, 1st July

CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
AU200: Australia retail sales, Melbourne Institute inflation
EU50: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
FRA40: France Manufacturing PMI
GER40: Germany Manufacturing PMI, CPI
UK100: UK Manufacturing PMI
US500: ISM Manufacturing

Tuesday, 2nd July

AU200: RBA meeting minutes
EU50: Eurozone CPI, unemployment, ECB President Lagarde speech
US500: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Wednesday, 3rd July

CN50: China Caixin service PMI
EU50: Eurozone Services PMI, PPI
USDInd: US FOMC minutes, ISM services, initial jobless claims, Fed speak

Thursday, 4th July

GER40: Germany factory orders
EU50: ECB meeting minutes
UK100: UK general elections
US Markets closed – Independence Day holiday

Friday, 5th July

CAD: Canada unemployment
EU50: Eurozone retail sales
FRA40: France trade, industrial production
GER40: Germany industrial production
SG20: Singapore retail sales
TWN: Taiwan CPI
US500: US June NFP report

FXTM’s FRA40 demands our attention due to the first round of French parliamentary elections over the weekend.

The FRA40 tracks the underlying CAC 40 index, which represents the 40 largest companies listed on the Paris Stock Exchange.

The lowdown…

The French political scene was thrown into chaos on June 9th after President Macron unexpectedly dissolved parliament following his defeat by the far right in EU elections.

Since then, the FRA40 has tumbled as much as 6.5% and heading for its biggest monthly loss in almost two years.

The bigger picture

In a two-round process on 30th June and 7th July, France will go to the polls to elect a new parliament after Macron called for snap elections.

If one candidate gains more than 50% of the vote, representing at least 25% of registered voters, they automatically win the elections. But this is an unlikely outcome given the current polls.

Any party that has obtained more than 12.5% of the vote can advance to the second round.

National Rally (far-right): 36%

New Popular Front (left-wing): 29%

Renaissance and allies (centrist): 21%

Note: President Macron belongs to Renaissance and allies.

Taking a deeper dive

President Macron will remain president regardless of how the election plays out.

However, he could be stuck with a prime minister and a government from a different party. This is the crux of the matter, especially when considering how unaligned Macron and the National Rally are on economic policies.

What does this mean?

This snap election could not have come at a worse time for the French economy.

Just last month its credit rating was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings, while the economy continues to experience subdued growth. If Macron is rendered powerless and unable to push reforms, this could mean more trouble for the French economy as political uncertainty becomes a key theme.

How will the elections impact the FRA40?

Investors have already been given a taste of how political jitters can rock the FRA40.

A shock outcome that sees an absolute majority for either the National Rally or New Popular Front could send the FRA40 tumbling as uncertainty over France’s policy future intensifies.

An outcome where all 3 parties make it into the second round of voting may also trigger volatility.

Technical outlook

The FRA40 is under intense pressure on the daily charts with prices respecting a bearish channel. Although the candlesticks are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signalling that prices are approaching oversold levels.

Sustained weakness below the 200-day SMA, may signal a decline toward 7470, 7400 and 7290.

Should prices push back above the 200-day SMA, bulls could challenge 7700 and 7790.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

28 Jun

EUR/USD continues to struggle amid US inflation concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD is on a downward trajectory on Friday, hovering around 1.0686 after a short-lived pause. The dollar experienced a temporary dip due to mixed American economic indicators and market anticipation ahead of the critical Core PCE inflation report, a significant factor in Federal Reserve decision-making.

Yesterday’s data showed a larger-than-expected decrease in US unemployment claims and a modest rise in Durable Goods Orders for May, although Core PCE dipped. The final GDP figures for Q1 2024 were slightly adjusted upward, showing the US economy grew by 1.4% compared to the previously estimated 1.3%, in contrast to the 3.4% growth seen in Q4 2023.

US Treasury yields also saw a minor decline, contributing to the dollar’s brief retreat. However, market dynamics are shifting as focus intensifies on today’s economic releases, including the Core PCE data, personal income and expenditures, and the University of Michigan’s May consumer sentiment index.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD has completed a downward movement to 1.0666 and corrected up to 1.0715. Currently, the market is forming another downward wave, targeting 1.0655. Should this level be reached, a rebound to 1.0690 is possible before continuing the downward trend towards at least 1.0577. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which remains below zero with a firm downward trajectory.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.0690. A downward breakout could lead to a continuation of the decline to 1.0655. Subsequently, a corrective move to 1.0690 may occur before a further drop to 1.0640. The Stochastic oscillator, hovering near 20, suggests potential for further declines before a rebound to 80 could happen, indicating volatile short-term movements.

Market outlook

Investors are advised to closely monitor the upcoming US economic data, which will likely influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and impact EUR/USD movements. The currency pair remains sensitive to shifts in US economic indicators and Federal Reserve signals regarding interest rates.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Jun

Silver prices fell to a 6-week low. Japanese authorities may intervene again to support the yen exchange rate

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock indices ended trading in a mixed direction. At the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.04%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.16%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.49%. Stock gains on Wednesday were capped by a rise in bond yields after hawkish comments from Fed spokesman Bowman lifted 10-year bond yields to a weekly high and dampened expectations of a Fed rate cut this year.

FedEx (FDX) is up more than 15% after reporting better-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS and estimating 2025 adjusted EPS above consensus. Additionally, Amazon (AMZN) is up more than 3% after announcing plans to launch an online store for low-priced clothing and home goods. Apple (AAPL) shares are up more than 1% after Rosenblatt Securities upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” with a $260 price target. Moderna (MRNA) is down more than 10% and topped the list of losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after new data showed that the efficacy of its RSV vaccine fell sharply in its second year and was lower than competing vaccines.

Markets are awaiting Friday’s release of PCE deflator data for May, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to see if price pressures are easing, which could pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates. The consensus is that the May core PCE deflator fell to 2.6% y/y from 2.8% y/y in April. If the actual data comes in line with the estimate, it will have a negative impact on the US dollar but will be positive for rising stock indices.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.12%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.80%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.27%. European equity markets opened lower on Thursday as investors became more cautious and reassessed the outlook for the global economy, inflation, and interest rates. In Europe today, traders will analyze consumer and business confidence data in Italy, retail sales data in Spain, and the Bank of England’s latest financial stability report. On Thursday, the EU leaders’ summit will start in Belgium.

WTI crude prices fell to around $80.5 a barrel on Thursday, retreating further from a near two-month high. An unexpected increase in US oil inventories added to concerns about weakening demand in the world’s top oil consumer. EIA data showed that the US crude inventories rose by 3.591 million barrels last week, defying market expectations of a 3 million barrel decline.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) held below $29 an ounce, near a six-week low, and were pressured by a strong dollar and Treasury bond yields after hawkish remarks from a Federal Reserve official. Meanwhile, investors continued to assess the outlook for silver demand in China, a major consumer, as industrial use of the metal is likely to suffer due to overcapacity in solar panel production.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.09%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.09%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.71%.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.1%, the highest in almost a month, while the 2-year bond yield hit a two-week high near 0.35% amid strong retail sales data and a sharply weaker yen, raising bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates at its July meeting. The data showed that retail sales in Japan rose 3% in May from a year earlier, accelerating from an upwardly revised 2.4% increase in April and well above market expectations for a 2% rise. Meanwhile, the yen fell to 160 per dollar, hitting its lowest level since 1986.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 4.4% to a more than three-week high as high inflation readings heightened fears that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may raise interest rates again as early as its next meeting in August.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,477.90 +8.60 (+0.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,127.80 +15.64 (+0.040%)

DAX (DE40) 18,155.24 −22.38 (−0.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,225.33 −22.46 (−0.27%)

USD Index 106.05 +0.44 (+0.41%)

Important events today:

– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Financial Stability Report at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 12:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Jun

Yen under pressure as USD/JPY hits new highs since 1986

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair soared to 160.34 on Thursday, reaching levels not seen since 1986, as market participants increasingly anticipate potential interventions from Japanese authorities. Despite repeated verbal assurances, the Japanese government has not taken concrete financial measures, leaving the yen vulnerable.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that the government stands ready to counteract sudden and undesirable fluctuations in the yen’s value, highlighting its preparedness to engage in market operations if necessary. However, when and how these interventions might occur remains uncertain, adding to the yen’s woes.

A significant factor in the yen’s ongoing decline is the stark contrast in interest rates between the Bank of Japan, which maintains a rate close to zero, and the Federal Reserve. This disparity has been a primary driver of the yen’s weakness, with the currency losing approximately 2% against the dollar in June alone, culminating in a 14% decline over the year.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY has broken through the critical 160.00 level, reaching up to 160.85. The market is currently retracing to test the 160.00 level from above. Should this level hold, we anticipate further growth towards 161.30, potentially extending the bullish trend to 163.30. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line well above zero, indicating strong upward momentum.

On the H1 chart, after reaching 160.85, the pair is undergoing a correction towards 160.00. Completion of this correction could pave the way for another ascent to 161.30. This view is technically reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, which is currently below 20 and poised for a rebound towards 80, suggesting a potential resurgence in buying pressure.

Market outlook

As the discrepancy between US and Japanese monetary policies continues to influence the USD/JPY, traders should remain alert to any signs of actual intervention by Japanese authorities. Such intervention could significantly impact market dynamics, potentially stalling or reversing the yen’s current depreciation trend.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Jun

Bitcoin: Waits on key risk event

By ForexTime

Bitcoin ↓ over 8% on Monday

Roughly 2% above $60,000 support

Over past year US PCE triggered moves of ↑ 0.9% & ↓ 2.3%

Key point of interest – $60,000

Technical levels – $60,254.93, $57,5656.20 and $66,365.11

Bitcoin’s extended losses have set off alarm bells for bulls, with prices sinking below $60,000 for the first time since early May!

The world’s largest cryptocurrency collapsed over 8% on Monday thanks to cooling demand for Bitcoin ETFs and uncertainty over US interest rates. Developments revolving around the failed Mt. Gox exchange compounded the overall negativity, allowing sellers to dominate the scene.

Despite prices rebounding in the previous session, sentiment remains fragile with bears on standby to pounce again. In the near term, Bitcoin’s fate may be tied to Friday’s US PCE deflators.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the Core PCE has the potential to impact bets around when the central bank will cut rates in 2024. Any changes to these expectations may impact cryptocurrencies which have displayed sensitivity to interest rates.

Traders are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a 25-basis point cut in September with a move fully priced in by November.

Fun fact: Over the past year, the US PCE deflators have triggered upside moves of as much as 0.9% or declines of 2.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Taking a look at the technicals

With Bitcoins’ weekly price chart showing a potential double top, this PCE report could not be better timed to determine the cryptos’ next course of action- above or below the double top neckline.

Notice how volume declined into the second top of the pattern.

Bitcoin on the daily time frame may be in a potential symmetrical triangle, bouncing off the lower bound trendline (support) on yesterday’s price action.

Interestingly, this bounce off the support area of the symmetrical triangle coincides with an entry and exit out of the oversold zone of the RSI.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an indicator that highlights overbought and oversold zones.

Key levels to look out for in a decline include:

$60,254.93 – The neckline area of the potential double-top pattern

$57,5656.20 – The 200-day simple moving average (SMA)

$56,457.70 – The lowest price between Bitcoins all time High ($73,711.39) and the most recent swing high ($69,498.98)

In a rally, the following levels are significant points of interest

$66,365.11 – The 50-day simple moving average

$71,428 – The upper bound trendline of the symmetrical pattern

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

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