26 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Cotton, Copper, FedFunds & SOFR-3M lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

July 26, 2026

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday July 21st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Extreme Bullish Speculator Table

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Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cotton

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Cotton speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings this week as the Cotton speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise higher by 11 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position registered 95,112 net contracts this week with a decrease of -335 contracts in speculator bets.

Copper

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Copper speculator position also comes in tied as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the Copper speculator level currently at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score showed no gain this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 73,977 net contracts this week with an advance of 9,592 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Wheat

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Wheat speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Wheat speculator level resides at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 43 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was -7,009 net contracts this week with an increase of 9,330 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week with the Bitcoin speculator level at a 89 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score advanced by 1 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 3,054 net contracts this week with a drop of -37 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Extreme Bullish Leader
The US Dollar Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The USD Index speculator level sits at an 86 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an increase by 38 percentage points this week while the net speculator position was 15,614 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,441 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Extreme Bearish Speculator Table

Fed Funds

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Fed Funds speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the FedFunds speculator level at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop of -30 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was -392,302 net contracts this week with an addition of 15,277 contracts in the speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Extreme Bearish Leader
The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level is currently at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease of -4 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -2,665,085 net contracts this week with an advance of 26,996 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the CAD speculator level resides at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a retreat of -23 percentage points this week with the overall net speculator position was -174,448 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,831 contracts in the speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing while the JPY speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -2 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -152,125 net contracts this week with a retreat of -29,462 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -48,802 net contracts this week with a gain of 16,426 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.


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