By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn & Soybeans
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (18,474 contracts) with Lean Hogs (7,964 contracts) and Cocoa (3,048 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-29,658 contracts), Soybeans (-17,265 contracts), Cotton (-11,613 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,280 contracts), Soybean Meal (-7,245 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,231 contracts), Coffee (-2,770 contracts) and with Sugar (-499 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
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Soft Commodities Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (81 percent) and Soybean Oil (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (70 percent), Coffee (68 percent) and Soybeans (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Soybean Meal (4 percent) and Wheat (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (20 percent) and the Sugar (20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (34.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (38.7 percent)
Sugar (19.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.8 percent)
Coffee (67.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (70.5 percent)
Soybeans (62.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (67.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (82.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.5 percent)
Live Cattle (80.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (87.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (70.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (64.0 percent)
Cotton (20.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (27.1 percent)
Cocoa (34.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (31.2 percent)
Wheat (13.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (28 percent) and Soybeans (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (10 percent), Cocoa (6 percent) and Cotton (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Corn (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-5 percent), Wheat (-5 percent) and Sugar (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-25.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-20.2 percent)
Sugar (-5.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Coffee (-0.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-7.7 percent)
Soybeans (16.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (10.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (34.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-5.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (28.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.6 percent)
Cotton (3.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.9 percent)
Cocoa (6.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.3 percent)
Wheat (-5.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.8 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,552 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -29,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,106 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.9 | 46.0 | 8.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.6 | 43.6 | 10.1 |
| – Net Position: | -11,552 | 39,014 | -27,462 |
| – Gross Longs: | 342,329 | 753,623 | 137,875 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 353,881 | 714,609 | 165,337 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 34.6 | 63.1 | 74.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -25.1 | 25.0 | 22.9 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -499 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,930 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.2 | 52.5 | 7.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.6 | 55.2 | 8.6 |
| – Net Position: | 28,431 | -21,672 | -6,759 |
| – Gross Longs: | 202,598 | 422,726 | 62,245 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 174,167 | 444,398 | 69,004 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 19.7 | 84.7 | 11.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.2 | 8.8 | -22.1 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,770 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,070 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.0 | 38.3 | 5.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.2 | 68.7 | 3.8 |
| – Net Position: | 43,300 | -45,702 | 2,402 |
| – Gross Longs: | 54,094 | 57,447 | 8,093 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,794 | 103,149 | 5,691 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 67.8 | 33.4 | 58.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.2 | -0.6 | 14.3 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,178 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.3 | 49.3 | 5.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.6 | 53.4 | 7.4 |
| – Net Position: | 47,913 | -34,716 | -13,197 |
| – Gross Longs: | 180,039 | 416,365 | 49,607 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 132,126 | 451,081 | 62,804 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 62.8 | 34.7 | 78.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.6 | -19.8 | 22.3 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,199 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.5 | 44.2 | 5.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.3 | 56.7 | 4.2 |
| – Net Position: | 66,919 | -74,232 | 7,313 |
| – Gross Longs: | 151,778 | 262,822 | 32,354 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 84,859 | 337,054 | 25,041 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 78.8 | 23.8 | 52.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.1 | -9.7 | 3.6 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -58,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,928 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.4 | 48.3 | 9.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.1 | 42.3 | 5.3 |
| – Net Position: | -58,173 | 35,606 | 22,567 |
| – Gross Longs: | 121,724 | 288,319 | 54,354 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 179,897 | 252,713 | 31,787 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 3.5 | 91.8 | 67.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.1 | 5.2 | -3.3 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,647 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 49.7 | 27.6 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.2 | 48.2 | 13.6 |
| – Net Position: | 103,416 | -80,410 | -23,006 |
| – Gross Longs: | 194,051 | 107,939 | 30,314 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 90,635 | 188,349 | 53,320 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 80.6 | 24.3 | 16.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.1 | 8.2 | -8.2 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 54,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,757 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.1 | 31.7 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.3 | 48.1 | 8.6 |
| – Net Position: | 54,721 | -50,685 | -4,036 |
| – Gross Longs: | 120,427 | 97,715 | 22,586 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 65,706 | 148,400 | 26,622 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 70.1 | 27.5 | 53.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 28.3 | -29.8 | -10.5 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,543 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.6 | 49.0 | 4.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.9 | 35.7 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | -29,156 | 31,346 | -2,190 |
| – Gross Longs: | 62,669 | 115,625 | 11,274 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 91,825 | 84,279 | 13,464 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 20.1 | 82.6 | 6.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.6 | -3.3 | -1.3 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,868 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 34.7 | 34.5 | 10.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.8 | 62.1 | 5.5 |
| – Net Position: | 23,916 | -28,875 | 4,959 |
| – Gross Longs: | 36,248 | 35,996 | 10,742 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 12,332 | 64,871 | 5,783 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 34.4 | 64.4 | 70.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.2 | -7.2 | 9.7 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,100 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.7 | 37.8 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.6 | 17.1 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | -99,626 | 99,080 | 546 |
| – Gross Longs: | 127,701 | 180,857 | 35,140 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 227,327 | 81,777 | 34,594 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 13.0 | 89.9 | 59.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.4 | 8.4 | -19.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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