COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Soybeans

July 20, 2024

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.


Free Reports:

Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.





Sign Up for Our Stock Market Newsletter – Get updated on News, Charts & Rankings of Public Companies when you join our Stocks Newsletter





Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (2,955 contracts) with Corn (1,125 contracts) and Cocoa (538 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-32,730 contracts), Soybeans (-11,353 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,446 contracts), Coffee (-4,441 contracts), Live Cattle (-4,065 contracts), Cotton (-1,998 contracts), Wheat (-1,281 contracts) and with Sugar (-430 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (95 percent) leads the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Cotton (1 percent), Corn (3 percent), Lean Hogs (8 percent) and Soybeans (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (3.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.3 percent)
Sugar (23.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.5 percent)
Coffee (95.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (99.4 percent)
Soybeans (8.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (11.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (45.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (41.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (54.6 percent)
Live Cattle (29.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (5.6 percent)
Cotton (0.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.2 percent)
Cocoa (42.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (42.3 percent)
Wheat (42.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (43.3 percent)


Sugar & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (23 percent) and Soybean Oil (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26 percent), Soybean Meal (-26 percent) and Soybeans (-26 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-15 percent) following next with in lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-15.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-24.0 percent)
Sugar (23.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.5 percent)
Coffee (3.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.0 percent)
Soybeans (-25.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-29.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (21.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-26.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-19.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-7.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-10.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-26.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-35.3 percent)
Cotton (-13.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-21.6 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.8 percent)
Wheat (-12.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.2 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -238,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.645.59.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.729.910.1
– Net Position:-238,816246,223-7,407
– Gross Longs:307,784716,565152,114
– Gross Shorts:546,600470,342159,521
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.595.297.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.112.137.0

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 67,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,019 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.155.18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.365.17.4
– Net Position:67,589-76,3288,739
– Gross Longs:177,958424,39565,838
– Gross Shorts:110,369500,72357,099
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.476.031.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.4-24.022.2

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 70,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.436.33.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.668.52.2
– Net Position:70,979-74,3263,347
– Gross Longs:86,15183,5138,486
– Gross Shorts:15,172157,8395,139
– Long to Short Ratio:5.7 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.04.468.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.2-3.911.0

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -161,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.259.35.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.538.67.3
– Net Position:-161,503173,410-11,907
– Gross Longs:135,252496,31049,082
– Gross Shorts:296,755322,90060,989
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.491.681.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.825.319.3

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.352.15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.953.34.6
– Net Position:2,031-6,9294,898
– Gross Longs:112,712289,02330,362
– Gross Shorts:110,681295,95225,464
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.659.533.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.1-19.63.9

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -32,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.641.49.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.350.95.9
– Net Position:33,624-50,70217,078
– Gross Longs:131,194220,88948,465
– Gross Shorts:97,570271,59131,387
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.257.632.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.226.4-12.8

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.932.29.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.543.512.5
– Net Position:47,212-37,003-10,209
– Gross Longs:124,193105,59330,807
– Gross Shorts:76,981142,59641,016
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.877.535.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.510.8-10.5

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.937.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.927.38.0
– Net Position:-26,39327,877-1,484
– Gross Longs:81,37299,72319,711
– Gross Shorts:107,76571,84621,195
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.093.876.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.229.15.4

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.948.25.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.035.96.0
– Net Position:-26,50726,921-414
– Gross Longs:61,011105,42412,713
– Gross Shorts:87,51878,50313,127
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.898.613.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.311.83.9

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.433.58.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.060.94.4
– Net Position:32,278-37,6435,365
– Gross Longs:47,38346,22211,372
– Gross Shorts:15,10583,8656,007
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.954.357.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.43.2-15.2

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.939.37.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.629.19.2
– Net Position:-36,06742,315-6,248
– Gross Longs:127,750162,86131,934
– Gross Shorts:163,817120,54638,182
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.558.233.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.512.45.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.