The United States and Iran have signed a peace agreement – oil has fallen to 80 dollars per barrel.

On Friday, US stock indices closed in the green zone amid two powerful drivers: the historic market debut of SpaceX and persistent geopolitical optimism. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.70% (weekly result +0.40%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.50% (weekly result -0.12%). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.64% (weekly result +0.52%).

The main event of the day was the triumphant debut of SpaceX on the NASDAQ exchange under the ticker SPCX. With an IPO price of 135 dollars per share, trading opened at 150 dollars. During the day, the stock surged by almost 30%, and closed at 161.11 dollars (a gain of 19.3%). This record IPO worth 75 billion dollars increased Elon Musk’s company’s capitalization to 2 trillion dollars. During the trading session, markets experienced short-term volatility due to a tough statement by Donald Trump, who warned Iran against disrupting the negotiations. However, markets quickly recovered after the publication of details of the draft peace agreement.

This week, investors’ attention will be focused on the first meeting of the US Federal Reserve under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh. According to the general consensus of analysts, the American regulator will keep interest rates in the current range of 3.5-3.75%. The main intrigue lies in the rhetoric: whether officials will signal readiness to resume rate hikes at the end of 2026 to curb inflation, which was fueled by the spring surge in oil prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, the market will assess a block of important US macroeconomic data for May.

Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.5%, repeating the pace of the previous month, which, under high inflation, indicates the preservation of nominal spending at the expense of reduced savings. In contrast, industrial production is prediction to slow sharply – growth will amount to only 0.2% after a strong April jump of 0.7%. The real estate sector will also show cooling: analysts expect a decline in both housing starts and building permits amid high costs.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.76% (weekly result +0.77%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.83% (weekly result +2.67%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.59% (weekly result +3.05%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher by 1.63% (weekly result +0.99%). In Europe, the focus of global financial markets this week is on the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden. According to the consensus outlook, the Bank of England will keep the base interest rate at 3.75%, although investors hope to receive hints from the Committee regarding the overall trajectory for the rest of the year. The central banks of Sweden (Riksbank), Switzerland (SNB), and Norway (Norges Bank) are expected to keep their current interest rates unchanged, opting for a wait‑and‑see approach. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, Germany is expected to show a moderate improvement in the ZEW economic sentiment Index for June. This will mark the second month of recovery after a deep April decline to a three‑year low, although the indicator will likely remain in negative territory.

Crude oil prices collapsed by more than 5%, plunging to 80 dollars per barrel and hitting a two‑month low. The massive sell‑off was triggered by the official announcement of the long‑awaited peace agreement between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump confirmed that the agreement provides for the immediate lifting of the American naval blockade of Iranian ports. This will allow safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to be fully restored by the end of the current week. In addition to reopening the strait, the framework agreement obliges Tehran to completely dismantle its nuclear program. In return, Iran receives a package of large‑scale economic incentives and legalization of its oil exports. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi officially confirmed that a compromise had been reached.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.81% (weekly result +0.11%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.50% (weekly result +1.64%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.93% (weekly result +0.55%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 1.98% (weekly result +1.14%). This week, the Asia‑Pacific region expects a dense flow of economic news.

Japan: The key event will be the Bank of Japan meeting (June 15-16). Against the backdrop of persistent inflation and a weak yen, the regulator is expected to raise the base rate by 25 basis points – to 1.0%. If confirmed, the rate will return to its highest level since 1995. Traders will also assess May data on inflation, trade, and machinery orders.

China: Investors will analyze a comprehensive block of May macroeconomic data: retail sales, industrial production (analysts expectation an acceleration to 4.6% due to IT exports), unemployment rate, fixed‑asset investment, and housing prices.

Australia: The Reserve Bank will likely pause and keep the refinancing rate at 4.35% after the May quarter‑point hike.

Other countries: Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia will publish trade balances, New Zealand will report Q1 GDP, and the central banks of Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines will announce rate decisions.