COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil with a gain of 4,691 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Bloomberg Index (-98,639 contracts), Natural Gas (-16,531 contracts), WTI Crude (-11,335 contracts), Gasoline (-8,734 contracts) and Heating Oil (-1,205 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude and Bloomberg Commodity Index highlight weekly changes

Highlighting the Energy market changes this week was Brent Oil, which was the only market with a positive week in speculator bets. Brent Oil saw a sharp drop by over -18,000 contracts last week (March 31st) and rebounded by almost +5,000 contracts this week. Overall, the Brent Crude Oil speculator position remains in negative territory as this market is usually negative and incorporates a lot of hedging activity.

Next up, the Bloomberg Commodity Index positions dropped by the most on record, falling by almost -100,000 contracts this week after seeing an influx of positions by over +35,000 contracts last week (March 31st). The Bloomberg Commodity Index bets fell by -98,639 contracts this week, bringing the overall net position standing to -75,342 contracts. This means the Bloomberg Commodity Index is now at the lowest or most bearish level on record dating back to 2016, according to CFTC data.

Energy Markets Price Performance was lower across the board on the Iran war ceasefire.

In the energy markets, Gasoline fell the least this week with a -3.47% decline, followed by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which retreated by -4.46%. Natural Gas was down by over 6% with a drop by -6.13%.

The biggest losers on the week and most significantly affected by the Iran war ceasefire, were Brent Oil which fell by -13.91%, WTI Crude Oil, which dropped by -14.09%, and Heating Oil, which decreased strongly by -16.45% over the past five days.

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Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Heating Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (55.2 percent), Gasoline (53.0 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (52.3 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (0.0 percent) and Natural Gas (14.4 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (52.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (56.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (36.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (30.1 percent)
Natural Gas (14.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (25.0 percent)
Gasoline (53.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (62.6 percent)
Heating Oil (55.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (56.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (100.0 percent)

 

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Brent Oil & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (26.2 percent) and WTI Crude (9.5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Index (-63.8 percent) and Gasoline (-43.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-10.5 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (9.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (23.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (26.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (0.6 percent)
Natural Gas (9.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (11.8 percent)
Gasoline (-43.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-22.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-10.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-7.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-63.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (34.7 percent)

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Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 202,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 213,488 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	43.4	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	54.7	2.6
– Net Position:	202,153	-230,466	28,313
– Gross Longs:	381,615	883,576	81,673
– Gross Shorts:	179,462	1,114,042	53,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.3	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-4.2	-31.1

 

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Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -31,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position advance of 4,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,815 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	40.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	30.1	3.2
– Net Position:	-31,124	27,416	3,708
– Gross Longs:	67,615	107,138	12,052
– Gross Shorts:	98,739	79,722	8,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.2	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-32.7	37.7

 

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Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -183,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position fall of -16,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,456 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	36.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	26.3	2.2
– Net Position:	-183,987	162,087	21,900
– Gross Longs:	212,869	572,123	56,582
– Gross Shorts:	396,856	410,036	34,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	85.2	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-14.0	16.6

 

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Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decline of -8,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,326 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	49.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	72.6	5.1
– Net Position:	59,592	-74,020	14,428
– Gross Longs:	80,253	158,736	30,682
– Gross Shorts:	20,661	232,756	16,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	37.8	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.2	37.2	9.5

 

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#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,092 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	49.7	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	62.9	9.4
– Net Position:	8,887	-30,231	21,344
– Gross Longs:	34,892	113,696	42,973
– Gross Shorts:	26,005	143,927	21,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	37.8	76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	9.1	-4.4

 

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Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -98,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,297 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	56.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.1	25.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-75,342	74,711	631
– Gross Longs:	100,140	134,711	657
– Gross Shorts:	175,482	60,000	26
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	25.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-63.8	64.0	-9.7

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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