Iran Crisis: A Dangerous Turning Point

By ForexTime 

• US-Israel strikes kill Iran’s supreme leader
• Oil benchmarks surge over 10% on Sunday open
• Safe-haven assets Gold/Silver also gap higher
• Risk-off may be name of game ahead of packed week
• Cheat sheet of potential winners and losers

Over the weekend, US–Israel strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – a dangerous turning point in an already distressed region.

Tehran fired back at Israel and hit US bases across the Gulf.

This explosive development came as a surprise, given there was an agreement to hold further talks over the coming weeks.

With missiles still flying, the risk of a full-blown regional escalation is growing by the minute.

And this was reflected on Sunday when markets opened with sharp gaps from Friday’s close amid the chaos.

• BRENT: ↑ 8%
• WTI: ↑7%
• XAUUSD: ↑2%
• XAGUSD: ↑1%

Note: Prices shown represent the gap from Friday’s close.

Here’s a cheat sheet of assets that could win/lose:

POTENTIAL WINNERS:

• VIX (Volatility Index)

The primary beneficiary as market fear spikes; prices may surge as investors hedge against a wider regional conflict.

• Safe-haven assets – (XAUUSD, XAGUSD, JPY, CHF, USD)

As risk aversion intensifies, investors may rush to safe-haven destinations.

• Oil benchmarks – (WTI, Brent)

The US-Israeli war against Iran has plunged the global crude market into turmoil, with the effective closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz fuelling supply side fears.

POTENTIAL LOSERS:

• Global equities – (CN50, EU50, UK100, US500, NAS100, US30)

As investors scramble for safety amid the chaos, global equities may face fresh selling pressure.

• Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins

Overall uncertainty and caution may repel investors from cryptos in favour of precious metals or safe-haven FX currencies.

There have been reports that Trump intends to engage in new talks with Iran’s new leadership.

Nevertheless, the Iran crisis has entered a new phase which could mean heightened levels of volatility over the next few days to weeks.

And with volatility comes opportunity.

Don’t miss out.

Article by ForexTime

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