30 Aug

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Nasdaq, FedFunds & WTI Crude lead Bullish & Bearish Bets

August 30, 2025

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 26th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Extreme Bullish Speculator Table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

Extreme Bullish Leader
The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position once again comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level has advanced to a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

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The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 20 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 14,698 net contracts this week with a boost by 9,259 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Nasdaq

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Nasdaq speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a small gain of 2 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 36,082 net contracts this week with an addition of 2,237 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Lean Hogs speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week with the Lean Hogs speculator level sitting at an 85 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decrease of -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 76,068 net contracts this week with a rise of 6,359 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain of 2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 106,277 net contracts this week with an edge higher of 136 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds


The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 78 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -8 percentage points.

The speculator position was -248,945 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,783 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Extreme Bearish Speculator Table

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Fed Funds

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Fed Funds speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the FedFunds speculator level sitting at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -70 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -393,823 net contracts this week with a drop of -76,769 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Extreme Bearish Leader
The WTI Crude Oil speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the WTI Crude speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -22 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 109,472 net contracts this week with a reduction by -10,737 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level resides at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -74,738 net contracts this week with a change of -4,445 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Extreme Bearish Leader
The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The USD Index speculator level is now at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -6 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -6,105 net contracts this week with a slide by -117 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Extreme Bearish Leader
Next, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain of 2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,463,971 net contracts this week with an advance of 44,412 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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