Week Ahead: Heavy hitter line up to rock US500?

• US500 ↑ over 8% YTD, recently touching ATH
• Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple = nearly 20% of US500 weight
• US GDP, PCE & NFP could influence Fed cut bets
• Trump’s tariff deadline = Liberation Day 2.0?
• Technical levels: 6400, 6350 and 6300

If you thought the last few days were eventful, just wait until you see the calendar for the week ahead…

Rate decisions by major central banks, top-tier economic reports, corporate earnings from tech titans, and Trump’s tariff deadline will be in focus:

Sunday, 27th July 

• CN50: China industrial profits

Monday, 28th July 

• US-China trade talks in Stockholm

Tuesday, 29th July

• AUD: Austria UniCredit Bank Austria manufacturing PMI
• EUR: Eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations
• SPN35: Spain GDP, retail sales
• UK100: Barclays earnings.
• US500: Conference Board, consumer confidence, job openings

Wednesday, 30th July

• AUD: Australia CPI
• CAD: Canada rate decision
• EU50: Eurozone GDP, consumer confidence
• GER40: Germany GDP
• US500: US Fed rate decision, GDP, ADP employment, US Treasury quarterly refunding, Microsoft, Meta earnings

Thursday, 31st July

• AUD: Australia retail sales
• CAD: Canada GDP
• CN50: China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
• GER40: Germany CPI, unemployment
• JP225: Japan rate decision, industrial production, retail sales
• ZAR: South Africa rate decision, trade
• US500: US consumer income/spending, PCE price index, jobless claims, Apple, Amazon earnings

Friday, 1st August 

• AU200: Austria CPI
• CN50: China S&P Global manufacturing PMI
• EU50: Eurozone CPI, Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI
• JPY: Japan unemployment, S&P Global manufacturing PMI
• GBP: UK trade, S&P Global manufacturing PMI
• US500: US NFP, S&P Global manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
• Trump-imposed deadline for the US tariff pause ends

The spotlight shines on FXTM’s US500, which has gained over 8% year-to-date. 

Note: FXTM’s US500 tracks the underlying S&P 500 index

US equities have been pushing higher with the US500 recently touching fresh all-time highs amid optimism about trade deals.

Here are 4 factors that could trigger significant moves:

1) Fed rate decision

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged in July, but any clues about future moves may shape the US500’s outlook. 

Note: The latest US CPI report increased to 2.7% in June. 

• The US500 could rise if the Fed strikes a dovish tone and signals lower rates down the road.
• Should Powell strike a hawkish note and suggest that rates may remain steady, it could drag the US500.

US500 is forecasted to move 1.5% up or down 1.4% in a 6-hour window after the Fed rate decision.

2) US data dump: Q2 GDP, PCE, ISM & NFP

A string of high-impact US data releases may influence Fed cut bets for the second half of 2025, impacting the US500 as a result.

Wednesday 30th July – Q2 GDP, ADP employment

• Note: US500 is forecasted to move 0.5% up or down 0.8% in a 6-hour window after the US GDP report.

Thursday 31st July – US PCE price index, jobless claims

• Note: US500 is forecasted to move 1.3% up or down 1.0% in a 6-hour window after the US PCE report.

Friday 1st August– US June NFP, ISM manufacturing

• Note: US500 is forecasted to move 0.7% up or down 1.6% in a 6-hour window after the US NFP report.

Traders are currently pricing in one Fed rate cut in 2025 with the odds of a second cut by December at 70%.

Any significant shifts in these bets may impact the US500.

• A set of figures that support the argument around lower rates may boost the US500.
• Should data cool bets around lower rates, this may weigh on the US500.

3) Big tech set for big moves?

Four of the “Magnificent” 7 tech titans with a combined market cap of over $11 trillion are set to publish their latest results.

Quarterly results from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple could offer key insight into how the tech industry fared last quarter.

It is worth noting that the combined weight of Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple makes up just under 20% of the US500!

• A solid set of results and optimistic forward guidance from tech titans may push the US500 higher.
• Should results disappoint and concerns be expressed about the business outlook, the US500 could fall.

4) Trump’s tariff deadline

A barrage of country-specific tariffs will take effect on Friday, August 1st, unless targeted partners reach a deal with the United States.

So far, a deal has been struck with the UK, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines, and Indonesia, while there is optimism around a US-EU trade deal. Talks are still ongoing with China, with the third round of negotiations kicking off on Monday 28th.

The US government has only secured 5 trade deals, well below what was pledged on “Liberation Day” back in April. So, the question is whether markets could be headed for “Liberation Day 2.0” as time runs out.

• If risk aversion returns with a vengeance, this may drag the US500 lower.

5) Technical forces

The US500 remains firmly bullish with prices closing above the 6350 psychological level. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling that prices are heavily overbought.

• Should 6350 prove reliable support, this may push prices toward 6400 and 6450.
• Weakness below 6350 may drag prices back toward 6300 and 6220.