By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Wheat
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (36,626 contracts) with Wheat (10,876 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,585 contracts), Cotton (6,953 contracts) and Corn (6,013 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-15,926 contracts), Soybeans (-13,336 contracts), Lean Hogs (-12,418 contracts), Coffee (-10,584 contracts), Sugar (-8,246 contracts) and with Cocoa (-803 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Soft Commodities Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (85 percent) and Coffee (68 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (68 percent) and Corn (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Wheat (8 percent), Soybean Meal (9 percent) and Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (57.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (56.4 percent)
Sugar (24.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (27.6 percent)
Coffee (68.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (78.3 percent)
Soybeans (45.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (48.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.1 percent)
Live Cattle (84.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (41.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (51.4 percent)
Cotton (16.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (12.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (28.9 percent)
Wheat (8.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)
Live Cattle & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (6 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (4 percent) and Soybean Oil (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Lean Hogs (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-35 percent), Wheat (-23 percent) and Coffee (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-34.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (-39.3 percent)
Sugar (3.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.6 percent)
Coffee (-15.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-7.4 percent)
Soybeans (-1.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-27.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-13.4 percent)
Live Cattle (6.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-38.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-38.9 percent)
Cotton (5.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.0 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-9.6 percent)
Wheat (-22.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-50.2 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 172,882 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,869 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.1 | 43.6 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.5 | 50.6 | 10.0 |
| – Net Position: | 172,882 | -125,804 | -47,078 |
| – Gross Longs: | 418,031 | 789,352 | 134,781 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 245,149 | 915,156 | 181,859 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 57.2 | 44.7 | 51.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -34.9 | 31.5 | 41.3 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,073 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.5 | 52.4 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.3 | 58.6 | 6.9 |
| – Net Position: | 44,827 | -54,103 | 9,276 |
| – Gross Longs: | 196,237 | 457,838 | 69,937 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 151,410 | 511,941 | 60,661 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 24.9 | 76.0 | 33.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.6 | -0.9 | -10.8 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,479 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,063 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 34.2 | 41.4 | 4.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.1 | 67.4 | 3.8 |
| – Net Position: | 43,479 | -45,041 | 1,562 |
| – Gross Longs: | 59,134 | 71,484 | 8,121 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 15,655 | 116,525 | 6,559 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.8 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.0 | 34.0 | 44.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.2 | 16.0 | -18.0 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,512 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.7 | 51.2 | 5.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.6 | 46.7 | 7.9 |
| – Net Position: | -16,848 | 38,620 | -21,772 |
| – Gross Longs: | 162,286 | 444,500 | 47,252 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 179,134 | 405,880 | 69,024 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 45.0 | 56.2 | 55.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.6 | -1.9 | 35.8 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 48,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 36,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,084 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.8 | 50.4 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.3 | 59.9 | 4.6 |
| – Net Position: | 48,710 | -55,272 | 6,562 |
| – Gross Longs: | 125,853 | 291,213 | 33,176 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 77,143 | 346,485 | 26,614 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.1 | 35.6 | 39.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.4 | -1.1 | -8.2 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,585 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,300 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.9 | 49.1 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.2 | 45.5 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | -45,715 | 22,536 | 23,179 |
| – Gross Longs: | 117,689 | 306,004 | 55,308 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 163,404 | 283,468 | 32,129 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.7 | 86.6 | 60.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.9 | 0.8 | 33.8 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 107,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,646 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.7 | 29.5 | 8.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.6 | 53.9 | 14.4 |
| – Net Position: | 107,720 | -87,154 | -20,566 |
| – Gross Longs: | 167,089 | 105,590 | 30,987 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 59,369 | 192,744 | 51,553 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.7 | 16.1 | 24.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.2 | -7.6 | -0.9 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,477 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.6 | 38.0 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.0 | 43.7 | 8.3 |
| – Net Position: | 18,059 | -15,757 | -2,302 |
| – Gross Longs: | 89,040 | 103,646 | 20,242 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 70,981 | 119,403 | 22,544 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 41.8 | 57.2 | 63.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -38.4 | 39.3 | 22.1 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -35,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,979 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.0 | 51.1 | 5.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.2 | 37.1 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -35,026 | 37,043 | -2,017 |
| – Gross Longs: | 66,636 | 135,870 | 15,733 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 101,662 | 98,827 | 17,750 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.5 | 85.9 | 4.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.1 | -2.1 | -30.2 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,601 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.1 | 41.2 | 10.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.4 | 64.1 | 6.2 |
| – Net Position: | 17,798 | -21,878 | 4,080 |
| – Gross Longs: | 26,815 | 39,392 | 9,986 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 9,017 | 61,270 | 5,906 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 28.1 | 71.6 | 60.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.7 | 2.3 | -6.7 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,800 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.2 | 35.6 | 8.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.6 | 17.1 | 7.8 |
| – Net Position: | -91,924 | 87,969 | 3,955 |
| – Gross Longs: | 119,544 | 168,962 | 41,011 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 211,468 | 80,993 | 37,056 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.3 | 91.4 | 78.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -22.7 | 19.6 | 29.9 |
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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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