By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (43,955 contracts) with Wheat (11,414 contracts), Cotton (8,202 contracts), Sugar (5,819 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Soybeans (-12,423 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.
Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Corn & Live Cattle
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Corn (94 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (88 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Sugar (4 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Soybean Meal (22 percent) and the Wheat (33 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (93.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (88.0 percent)
Sugar (4.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.1 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (46.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (49.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)
Soybean Oil & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Corn (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (16 percent), Soybeans (11 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-10 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (17.1 percent)
Sugar (-22.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-22.9 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (10.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (18.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 468,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 43,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 424,769 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.3 | 39.0 | 5.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.7 | 57.2 | 10.2 |
| – Net Position: | 468,724 | -377,274 | -91,450 |
| – Gross Longs: | 627,494 | 807,094 | 120,055 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 158,770 | 1,184,368 | 211,505 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 93.6 | 12.4 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 19.0 | -16.2 | -31.5 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,819 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,526 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.8 | 54.5 | 7.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.9 | 53.3 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -20,707 | 12,056 | 8,651 |
| – Gross Longs: | 205,612 | 538,441 | 74,611 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 226,319 | 526,385 | 65,960 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 4.0 | 93.8 | 30.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -22.6 | 17.8 | 6.0 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.7 | 37.0 | 5.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.6 | 71.9 | 3.5 |
| – Net Position: | 63,697 | -67,169 | 3,472 |
| – Gross Longs: | 78,310 | 71,130 | 10,259 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,613 | 138,299 | 6,787 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.4 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 87.6 | 12.9 | 75.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.9 | -1.8 | 15.5 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,781 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.5 | 55.4 | 4.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.1 | 51.2 | 8.4 |
| – Net Position: | -5,642 | 37,594 | -31,952 |
| – Gross Longs: | 166,913 | 499,909 | 43,943 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 172,555 | 462,315 | 75,895 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 46.0 | 57.7 | 29.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.7 | -9.4 | -17.5 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.1 | 55.4 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.4 | 67.0 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | 55,168 | -65,153 | 9,985 |
| – Gross Longs: | 124,887 | 312,914 | 35,495 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 69,719 | 378,067 | 25,510 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.7 | 30.7 | 52.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 27.0 | -28.6 | 32.8 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.4 | 50.3 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.8 | 51.0 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | -13,967 | -4,408 | 18,375 |
| – Gross Longs: | 102,087 | 294,109 | 51,912 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 116,054 | 298,517 | 33,537 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.7 | 76.0 | 38.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.4 | -2.5 | -9.6 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.9 | 29.5 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.1 | 53.5 | 14.1 |
| – Net Position: | 113,424 | -88,275 | -25,149 |
| – Gross Longs: | 179,879 | 108,595 | 26,597 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,455 | 196,870 | 51,746 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 90.5 | 14.8 | 9.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.1 | -9.5 | -5.5 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 43.3 | 32.0 | 7.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.2 | 53.4 | 9.4 |
| – Net Position: | 73,220 | -67,641 | -5,579 |
| – Gross Longs: | 137,087 | 101,137 | 24,044 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,867 | 168,778 | 29,623 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.4 | 13.0 | 43.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.4 | 0.8 | 29.2 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.9 | 50.0 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.7 | 36.3 | 4.6 |
| – Net Position: | -42,565 | 39,238 | 3,327 |
| – Gross Longs: | 68,832 | 143,745 | 16,498 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 111,397 | 104,507 | 13,171 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 5.4 | 93.8 | 36.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.2 | 2.9 | 20.2 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.8 | 40.0 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.7 | 67.3 | 4.1 |
| – Net Position: | 26,819 | -33,051 | 6,232 |
| – Gross Longs: | 40,947 | 48,369 | 11,236 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,128 | 81,420 | 5,004 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.3 | 60.1 | 65.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.9 | 9.6 | 3.0 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.5 | 34.1 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 41.9 | 21.9 | 7.7 |
| – Net Position: | -55,941 | 54,281 | 1,660 |
| – Gross Longs: | 132,148 | 152,709 | 35,998 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 188,089 | 98,428 | 34,338 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.7 | 64.4 | 65.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.3 | -16.3 | -1.0 |
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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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