The US Federal Reserve will begin its rate-cutting cycle today. In the UK, inflation figures were unchanged

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.04%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.03%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.20%. Yesterday afternoon, equities came under pressure from long liquidations after bond yields rose ahead of the release of the results of the 2-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Retail Sales for August unexpectedly rose by 0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of a 0.2% m/m decline. US manufacturing production in August added 0.9% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.2% m/m and was the largest increase in the last 6 months. Such data, along with the GDP growth estimates for Q3, allows the US Fed to start the easing cycle with a 0.25% rate hike. Fed Chair Powell’s comments after Wednesday’s meeting will also be scrutinized for further Fed policy intentions. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate cut at Tuesday/Wednesday’s FOMC meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at this meeting at 52%.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.50%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.51%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) Index gained 1.06%, the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.38%.

The UK’s annual inflation rate for August 2024 remained at 2.2%, in line with July expectations. CPI rose 0.3% from the previous month, after falling 0.2% in July and matched expectations. The latest data had little impact on expectations that the Bank of England will keep policy steady on Thursday.

WTI crude oil prices fell to around $71 a barrel on Wednesday, breaking a two-day streak of gains, amid an unexpected increase in US crude inventories. API data showed US crude inventories rose by 1.96 million barrels last week, breaking a three-week streak of declines and beating market expectations for a 0.1 million barrel decline.

Silver fell below $30.5 an ounce, retreating from two-month highs, as traders grew cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s expected monetary policy decision. In addition, disappointing economic data from China added to concerns about demand in the country, the world’s top metals consumer. Data released over the weekend showed that China’s industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment in August fell short of prognoses.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade due to a holiday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.37%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.24%.

In Australia, investors await the country’s employment report on Thursday to gauge the state of the labor market and its potential impact on domestic monetary policy. Markets see a 4.35% cut in the money rate at next week’s Reserve Bank meeting as unlikely, given that policymakers have consistently maintained a hawkish stance.