By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (28,611 contracts) with Corn (16,762 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,877 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,011 contracts), Cotton (5,753 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,475 contracts), Coffee (2,749 contracts) and Cocoa (1,304 contracts) also recording positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-6,975 contracts), Soybeans (-5,373 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-1,853 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Coffee
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (91 percent) leads the softs markets this week.
On the downside, Soybeans (3 percent), Cotton (4 percent), Live Cattle (15 percent), Corn (15 percent) and Sugar (18.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (15.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (12.8 percent)
Sugar (18.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.1 percent)
Coffee (91.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (88.4 percent)
Soybeans (3.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.0 percent)
Live Cattle (15.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.7 percent)
Cotton (3.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (40.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (39.4 percent)
Wheat (46.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (51.6 percent)
Lean Hogs & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Corn (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (2 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.
Soybean Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-15 percent), Soybean Meal (-7 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (-6.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Coffee (-4.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.0 percent)
Soybeans (-5.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-26.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-6.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-21.6 percent)
Live Cattle (-14.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.7 percent)
Cotton (-6.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.2 percent)
Cocoa (-2.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.9 percent)
Wheat (2.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.5 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -148,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,296 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.9 | 44.4 | 9.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 32.1 | 32.3 | 11.6 |
| – Net Position: | -148,534 | 175,015 | -26,481 |
| – Gross Longs: | 317,652 | 644,776 | 142,421 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 466,186 | 469,761 | 168,902 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 15.0 | 85.7 | 72.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 11.5 | -9.5 | -25.3 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 28,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,304 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.7 | 54.6 | 7.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.0 | 60.9 | 7.0 |
| – Net Position: | 47,915 | -52,993 | 5,078 |
| – Gross Longs: | 188,930 | 453,498 | 63,531 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 141,015 | 506,491 | 58,453 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 18.0 | 81.2 | 26.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.8 | 6.7 | -4.8 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,158 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 42.0 | 37.6 | 4.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.6 | 73.9 | 2.5 |
| – Net Position: | 66,907 | -70,522 | 3,615 |
| – Gross Longs: | 81,646 | 73,105 | 8,571 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,739 | 143,627 | 4,956 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.5 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 91.1 | 8.1 | 72.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -184,266 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,893 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.3 | 63.8 | 6.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.9 | 39.4 | 7.8 |
| – Net Position: | -184,266 | 198,947 | -14,681 |
| – Gross Longs: | 108,772 | 520,608 | 48,554 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 293,038 | 321,661 | 63,235 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 3.1 | 97.9 | 74.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.4 | 6.3 | -7.2 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,670 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.9 | 53.3 | 5.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.4 | 48.5 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | -29,793 | 26,191 | 3,602 |
| – Gross Longs: | 129,368 | 288,506 | 30,211 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 159,161 | 262,315 | 26,609 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 25.1 | 75.9 | 28.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.4 | 16.4 | -5.0 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,574 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.2 | 46.0 | 9.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.0 | 53.1 | 5.4 |
| – Net Position: | 17,049 | -37,614 | 20,565 |
| – Gross Longs: | 118,177 | 244,382 | 49,070 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 101,128 | 281,996 | 28,505 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 34.4 | 62.8 | 48.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.8 | 5.2 | 15.7 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,622 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.5 | 36.7 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.8 | 44.2 | 13.5 |
| – Net Position: | 33,769 | -21,555 | -12,214 |
| – Gross Longs: | 97,052 | 106,439 | 26,856 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,283 | 127,994 | 39,070 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 15.3 | 96.4 | 24.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.5 | 18.9 | -10.7 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,796 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 38.1 | 38.0 | 7.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.0 | 31.5 | 8.7 |
| – Net Position: | -11,785 | 15,619 | -3,834 |
| – Gross Longs: | 92,284 | 91,936 | 17,159 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 104,069 | 76,317 | 20,993 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.6 | 80.1 | 66.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 13.0 | -12.9 | -10.5 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,828 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.1 | 49.7 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 41.4 | 33.0 | 6.0 |
| – Net Position: | -37,075 | 37,777 | -702 |
| – Gross Longs: | 56,934 | 112,860 | 12,938 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 94,009 | 75,083 | 13,640 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 3.5 | 96.2 | 12.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.4 | 6.1 | -1.7 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,888 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Potential Trend Change)
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.0 | 31.3 | 8.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.2 | 58.3 | 3.2 |
| – Net Position: | 30,192 | -37,450 | 7,258 |
| – Gross Longs: | 54,055 | 43,405 | 11,674 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 23,863 | 80,855 | 4,416 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 40.8 | 54.5 | 74.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.1 | 0.2 | 16.1 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,706 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 35.4 | 35.2 | 8.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.7 | 26.0 | 9.1 |
| – Net Position: | -32,681 | 35,914 | -3,233 |
| – Gross Longs: | 139,525 | 138,475 | 32,640 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 172,206 | 102,561 | 35,873 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 46.5 | 52.3 | 46.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.4 | -4.9 | 14.7 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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