By ForexTime
That’s right, markets are forecasting this to be one of the most volatile weeks for the currency pair this year.
After trending lower this month and touching levels not seen since early May 2024, a significant move could be on the horizon.
On the daily charts, a technical bounce seems to be taking place with prices lingering around resistance at 155.00.
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This rebound may be the product of yen weakness as investors question whether the BoJ will hike rates tomorrow.
Nevertheless, this is a big week for the USDJPY with fresh trading opportunities on the horizon.
This is what you need to keep an eye on.
Expectations are mixed over what actions the Bank of Japan will take this month.
Traders are currently pricing in a 50% probability that the BoJ hikes rates by 10bp in July.
Given how inflation and wage growth have picked up, this presents an argument for higher rates. However, the BoJ has a solid record of disappointing market expectations.
No changes to US interest rates are expected. However, much focus will be on the press conference which could offer fresh clues on future policy moves.
Traders have priced in a 25-basis point Fed cut by September with a 75% probability of another cut by November.
Prices remain under pressure on the daily charts despite the recent rebound. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving away from oversold conditions, prices are still below the 50 & 100-day SMA.
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