By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Coffee
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil with a small gain of just 316 contracts for the week.
All the other markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-52,693 contracts) with Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybeans (-18,130 contracts), Soybean Meal (-17,204 contracts), Wheat (-9,081 contracts), Sugar (-7,790 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,324 contracts)Cocoa (-2,377 contracts), Live Cattle (-631 contracts) and Cotton (-426 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
| Aug-15-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,702,766 | 27 | 242,108 | 26 | -270,101 | 76 | 27,993 | 35 |
| Gold | 433,611 | 5 | 121,136 | 30 | -141,930 | 69 | 20,794 | 32 |
| Silver | 138,215 | 30 | 7,861 | 29 | -23,264 | 66 | 15,403 | 52 |
| Copper | 224,215 | 62 | -25,698 | 9 | 20,665 | 89 | 5,033 | 50 |
| Palladium | 20,511 | 100 | -9,423 | 6 | 9,722 | 96 | -299 | 24 |
| Platinum | 84,557 | 100 | 1 | 16 | -5,866 | 81 | 5,865 | 47 |
| Natural Gas | 1,168,181 | 43 | -95,183 | 34 | 66,755 | 66 | 28,428 | 48 |
| Brent | 129,184 | 7 | -43,200 | 27 | 41,206 | 76 | 1,994 | 36 |
| Heating Oil | 332,712 | 49 | 31,677 | 86 | -58,181 | 14 | 26,504 | 90 |
| Soybeans | 638,785 | 14 | 65,333 | 15 | -43,649 | 82 | -21,684 | 49 |
| Corn | 1,287,019 | 13 | -26,966 | 6 | 73,174 | 93 | -46,208 | 51 |
| Coffee | 180,118 | 3 | 8,495 | 36 | -8,052 | 68 | -443 | 7 |
| Sugar | 929,306 | 55 | 191,433 | 59 | -228,493 | 40 | 37,060 | 51 |
| Wheat | 374,839 | 51 | -31,875 | 44 | 33,913 | 56 | -2,038 | 65 |
Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (97 percent) and Live Cattle (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (59 percent), Soybean Meal (51 percent) and Soybean Oil (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Corn (6 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (21 percent) and the Coffee (36 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (5.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (14.4 percent)
Sugar (58.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (61.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (14.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (47.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (51.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (61.0 percent)
Live Cattle (76.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.3 percent)
Cotton (39.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (39.7 percent)
Cocoa (97.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (44.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.6 percent)
Cotton & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (28 percent) and Wheat (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (5 percent), Cocoa (5 percent) and Lean Hogs (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-16 percent), Corn (-12 percent) and Soybeans (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-14.4 percent)
Sugar (-2.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.4 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-10.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-7.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (5.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.2 percent)
Cotton (27.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (32.2 percent)
Cocoa (5.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.9 percent)
Wheat (9.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (17.3 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -52,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,727 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.6 | 49.6 | 10.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.7 | 43.9 | 13.7 |
| – Net Position: | -26,966 | 73,174 | -46,208 |
| – Gross Longs: | 277,537 | 637,897 | 129,791 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 304,503 | 564,723 | 175,999 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 5.8 | 93.1 | 51.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -12.0 | 11.7 | 1.1 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 191,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,223 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.5 | 46.2 | 9.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.9 | 70.8 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | 191,433 | -228,493 | 37,060 |
| – Gross Longs: | 274,489 | 429,317 | 85,080 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 83,056 | 657,810 | 48,020 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 58.6 | 39.8 | 50.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.8 | 0.4 | 8.8 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.4 | 47.0 | 3.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.7 | 51.4 | 3.9 |
| – Net Position: | 8,495 | -8,052 | -443 |
| – Gross Longs: | 42,190 | 84,606 | 6,662 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 33,695 | 92,658 | 7,105 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 36.1 | 67.9 | 7.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -23.1 | 24.0 | -19.8 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 65,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,463 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.6 | 54.6 | 6.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.4 | 61.4 | 10.1 |
| – Net Position: | 65,333 | -43,649 | -21,684 |
| – Gross Longs: | 138,099 | 348,481 | 43,056 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 72,766 | 392,130 | 64,740 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 14.8 | 81.7 | 49.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.1 | 9.8 | -6.1 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 50,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,836 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.2 | 52.2 | 7.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.8 | 64.8 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 50,152 | -60,786 | 10,634 |
| – Gross Longs: | 97,149 | 251,109 | 34,124 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 46,997 | 311,895 | 23,490 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 47.2 | 51.1 | 53.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.4 | -6.6 | 12.7 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 89,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,964 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.3 | 40.1 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 5.0 | 62.1 | 5.5 |
| – Net Position: | 89,760 | -108,122 | 18,362 |
| – Gross Longs: | 114,387 | 197,156 | 45,518 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 24,627 | 305,278 | 27,156 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 51.4 | 49.4 | 37.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.5 | 0.5 | 23.9 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 90,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,300 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 44.3 | 28.9 | 9.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.8 | 54.4 | 13.0 |
| – Net Position: | 90,669 | -78,404 | -12,265 |
| – Gross Longs: | 136,254 | 89,068 | 27,615 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 45,585 | 167,472 | 39,880 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.0 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 76.7 | 26.9 | 21.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.9 | 16.6 | 6.4 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,350 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.2 | 39.5 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 36.2 | 32.9 | 10.5 |
| – Net Position: | -10,674 | 14,260 | -3,586 |
| – Gross Longs: | 66,874 | 84,655 | 18,971 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 77,548 | 70,395 | 22,557 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 20.9 | 83.1 | 67.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.6 | -0.5 | -5.9 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,144 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.5 | 43.0 | 7.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.1 | 67.1 | 3.2 |
| – Net Position: | 40,718 | -50,546 | 9,828 |
| – Gross Longs: | 76,629 | 90,263 | 16,647 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 35,911 | 140,809 | 6,819 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 39.4 | 56.1 | 75.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 27.5 | -30.9 | 55.1 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 77,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,502 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.6 | 28.4 | 3.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.4 | 57.8 | 2.5 |
| – Net Position: | 77,125 | -80,698 | 3,573 |
| – Gross Longs: | 127,724 | 77,864 | 10,505 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 50,599 | 158,562 | 6,932 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.5 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 97.3 | 1.7 | 32.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.1 | -5.7 | 5.6 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,794 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.4 | 36.7 | 9.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.9 | 27.6 | 10.0 |
| – Net Position: | -31,875 | 33,913 | -2,038 |
| – Gross Longs: | 110,356 | 137,515 | 35,301 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 142,231 | 103,602 | 37,339 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.1 | 56.0 | 65.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.7 | -13.7 | 12.5 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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