By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Silver
The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the metals this week was Palladium with a gain of 731 contracts.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-16,000 contracts), Silver (-8,545 contracts), Copper (-7,742 contracts), Steel (-524 contracts) and Platinum (-2,261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Palladium speculators trim their bearish bets for 2nd week as sentiment & prices improve
Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the improvement in bets for the Palladium speculative positions. Palladium was the only metal with a gain in speculator bets this week and has now risen for two straight weeks. Palladium has also gained in three out of the past five weeks. The current net speculator position of -4,916 contracts is the least bearish standing out of the past fourteen weeks.
The speculator positioning has been improving for Palladium as the strength index score (speculator positioning range of past three years) came out of a bearish extreme position this week for the first time since February 7th. Palladium’s strength index has improved by 16 percentage points over the past six weeks.
Fundamentally, the outlook for Palladium has taken a hit with car manufacturers looking to use Platinum instead of Palladium for parts, especially in electric cars. Despite the pullback from manufacturers, recent reports have shown the both Platinum and Palladium supply will be in deficits this year, possibly putting a floor under prices.
Palladium prices have bounced off of a major support level at $1,400 in recent weeks and closed this week above $1,520. Palladium raced as high as $3,425 in March of 2022 before dropping sharply into a downtrend that has extended into this year. Palladium bulls hope that the recent drop to $1,333 in March marks a new bottom as it coincides with the 2020 pandemic low-point as well.
| May-16-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 521,832 | 46 | 179,814 | 56 | -211,557 | 42 | 31,743 | 60 |
| Silver | 140,139 | 26 | 23,815 | 52 | -37,067 | 49 | 13,252 | 40 |
| Copper | 210,415 | 51 | -32,607 | 0 | 28,695 | 98 | 3,912 | 43 |
| Palladium | 12,761 | 93 | -4,916 | 20 | 5,388 | 82 | -472 | 13 |
| Platinum | 73,410 | 83 | 25,823 | 75 | -30,405 | 31 | 4,582 | 30 |
Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (75 percent) and Steel (60 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Palladium (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Silver (52 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (56.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.3 percent)
Silver (52.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (64.4 percent)
Copper (0.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.9 percent)
Platinum (75.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (80.4 percent)
Palladium (20.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.4 percent)
Steel (60.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (61.9 percent)
Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (24 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (-7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.
Steel (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-26 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (6.2 percent)
Silver (3.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.1 percent)
Copper (-26.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.7 percent)
Platinum (24.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.9 percent)
Palladium (16.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.3 percent)
Steel (-0.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.9 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 179,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,814 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.9 | 26.5 | 10.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.5 | 67.0 | 4.4 |
| – Net Position: | 179,814 | -211,557 | 31,743 |
| – Gross Longs: | 255,250 | 138,322 | 54,852 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 75,436 | 349,879 | 23,109 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.4 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.2 | 42.3 | 59.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.8 | 2.6 | 21.9 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,360 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 43.1 | 30.7 | 18.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.1 | 57.2 | 8.8 |
| – Net Position: | 23,815 | -37,067 | 13,252 |
| – Gross Longs: | 60,440 | 43,026 | 25,607 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 36,625 | 80,093 | 12,355 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.2 | 49.0 | 40.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.6 | -6.8 | 17.4 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,865 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.4 | 47.5 | 9.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.9 | 33.9 | 7.3 |
| – Net Position: | -32,607 | 28,695 | 3,912 |
| – Gross Longs: | 59,693 | 100,023 | 19,241 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 92,300 | 71,328 | 15,329 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 97.8 | 43.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -26.3 | 28.5 | -24.9 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,084 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 54.4 | 28.9 | 9.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.3 | 70.3 | 3.7 |
| – Net Position: | 25,823 | -30,405 | 4,582 |
| – Gross Longs: | 39,962 | 21,228 | 7,282 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,139 | 51,633 | 2,700 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 75.2 | 30.6 | 29.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 24.0 | -23.2 | 10.7 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,647 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.0 | 61.9 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 52.5 | 19.7 | 12.6 |
| – Net Position: | -4,916 | 5,388 | -472 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,782 | 7,900 | 1,136 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 6,698 | 2,512 | 1,608 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 3.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 20.1 | 82.4 | 13.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.0 | -13.6 | -6.4 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,896 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.8 | 78.7 | 0.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.8 | 62.4 | 1.0 |
| – Net Position: | -4,420 | 4,502 | -82 |
| – Gross Longs: | 2,997 | 21,755 | 185 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 7,417 | 17,253 | 267 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.4 | 40.1 | 8.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.8 | 1.6 | -34.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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