15 Apr

COT Metals Speculators raise their Silver bets for 5th week to a 10-week high

April 15, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

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Leading the gains for the metals was Silver with a rise of 2,435 contracts this week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-2,471 contracts) with Platinum (-2,090 contracts), Copper (-1,349 contracts), Steel (-970 contracts) and Palladium (-427 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Silver speculator bets rise for 5th week to 10-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Silver speculative positions. The large speculator position in Silver futures climbed this week for a fifth straight week. Silver spec bets have now jumped by a total of +31,500 contracts over the past five weeks. This recent speculator sentiment bump has taken the Silver position from a total of -1,219 contracts on March 14th to a total of +23,718 contracts this week, leveling at the most bullish standing for Silver in ten weeks.

The Silver futures price has continued to enjoy a bullish run and has now increased for five consecutive weeks. The futures price has risen by over 20 percent in these past five weeks and touched the highest level since last April before closing this week at almost $25.50.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-11-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold476,56725192,74562-216,5484023,80340
Silver142,6992923,71852-36,2555012,53736
Copper209,50150-4,30325-1,217725,52053
Palladium12,29088-7,07307,491100-41817
Platinum60,1154113,33346-18,511555,17837

 

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (62 percent) and Steel (58 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (0.2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.0 percent)
Silver (52.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.6 percent)
Copper (24.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (25.8 percent)
Platinum (46.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.2 percent)
Palladium (0.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.2 percent)
Steel (58.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (61.2 percent)

 

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (37 percent) and Silver (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (18.5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (37.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.8 percent)
Silver (33.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.2 percent)
Copper (1.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-4.5 percent)
Platinum (18.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (28.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.5 percent)
Steel (-4.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (0.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 192,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.625.110.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.170.65.3
– Net Position:192,745-216,54823,803
– Gross Longs:260,165119,71049,102
– Gross Shorts:67,420336,25825,299
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.940.339.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.0-34.412.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.033.417.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.358.88.9
– Net Position:23,718-36,25512,537
– Gross Longs:55,58347,62925,218
– Gross Shorts:31,86583,88412,681
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.150.036.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.9-28.0-3.7

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.843.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.844.26.3
– Net Position:-4,303-1,2175,520
– Gross Longs:56,06391,39918,793
– Gross Shorts:60,36692,61613,273
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.672.453.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-1.0-3.5

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.234.512.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.065.34.0
– Net Position:13,333-18,5115,178
– Gross Longs:29,57020,7687,569
– Gross Shorts:16,23739,2792,391
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.5 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.455.237.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.5-17.98.0

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.971.710.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:69.510.814.1
– Net Position:-7,0737,491-418
– Gross Longs:1,4638,8141,319
– Gross Shorts:8,5361,3231,737
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 16.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.2100.016.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.78.24.2

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.076.41.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.859.10.6
– Net Position:-5,1084,951157
– Gross Longs:3,42821,857317
– Gross Shorts:8,53616,906160
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.441.439.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.14.4-10.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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