EURUSD: even higher. Overview for 16.11.2022

The market major on Wednesday preserves its impulse of growth. The current quote is 1.0350.

The main reason for the crash of the USD and the sky-rocketing of the EUR is the all-market strong belief that at the meeting in December the Federal Reserve System will change its policy. Looks like these are the expectations on which the market will keep buying until it gets facts.

At the same time, the number of risks for the euro is growing. For example, spot gas prices in Europe are heading up high. Yesterday they leaped up by 16%. As long as the heating season has started, there may occur too many surprises, and the EUR will inevitably react to them. These are inflation prospects, which are extremely important for the currency.

The second GDP assessment in the Euro zone in Q3 demonstrated growth of the economy by 0.2% m/m as expected. Curiously, the German GDP inside the EU is growing slower than that of France or Spain. Germany used to be the economic locomotive of the alliance but has recently lost the ability to pull the whole of the EU forward.

Today the US will publish two important economic indicators. One is the retail sales report for October. It might have grown by 0.9% m/m, which would be productive after zero change in September. Moreover, industrial production data are also to be published, and in October it should have grown by 0.2% m/m after growing by 0.4% in September. The better the statistics turn out, the better for the USD.