The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.10.13

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 0.9703
• Prev Close: 0.9699
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04 %

September FOMC minutes did not report anything new, so investors’ main focus is on the US Consumer Price Index, which will be released today. It is a very important report which will tell how aggressive the US Central Bank will be in its next meetings. If the data shows a slowdown in inflation, it may give a sharp boost to risky assets such as the euro and the pound on expectations that the US Fed will be less aggressive. On the other hand, if inflation shows no sign of slowing, the dollar index will continue to strengthen, leading to further declines in the euro.

• Support levels: 0.9667, 0.9601
• Resistance levels: 0.9743, 0.9856, 0.9962, 1.0058, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price forms a balance, and there is an accumulation of liquidity before the important news, which means that the impulse movement will be significant. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 0.9601, but with additional confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 0.9743, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9666 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – US FOMC member Bowman Speaks at 01:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0963
• Prev Close: 1.1093
• % chg. over the last day: +1.18 %

The pound rose against the dollar yesterday as traders bet on a more aggressive interest rate hike by the Bank of England due to concerns that a budget of unaccounted tax cuts would further boost UK inflation. The higher cost of borrowing by the UK government reflects market worries about the affordability of upcoming tax cuts aimed at supporting the British economy, which is in danger of recession. At the moment, investors are confused, so there are likely to be no significant changes before the Bank of England meeting.

• Support levels: 1.0915, 1.0816, 1.0711, 1.03
• Resistance levels: 1.1130, 1.1248, 1.1478, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but buyer pressure is weak. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.0816. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday timeframes, and the nearest resistance level is 1.1130, but better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.0915 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 145.85
• Prev Close: 146.84
• % chg. over the last day: +0.68 %

The yen weakened to a new low in almost 25 years after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledged to maintain a soft monetary policy to support the economic recovery. Earlier this week, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also pledged support for the Bank of Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy, despite the yen’s fall this year. The Bank of Japan is one of the few central banks in the world to maintain minimum rates, while most of its peers aggressively raise rates to fight inflation. This divergent policy continues to affect the Japanese yen negatively.

• Support levels: 146.21, 145.92, 144.91, 144.16, 143.00, 140.60, 139.61
• Resistance levels: 147.00, 148.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the moving levels. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and the pressure on buyers remains. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for on intraday time frames from the support level of 146.21, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the 147.00 or 148.00 resistance level, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 143.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3794
• Prev Close: 1.3813
• % chg. over the last day: +0.14 %

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dollar index and oil prices. Oil prices continue to decline amid falling demand due to new restrictions in China. On the other hand, OPEC+ is planning to cut production significantly. As a result, there are two opposing forces in the oil market. The US Index may change the parity, the dynamics of which will be determined after today’s inflation data.

• Support levels: 1.3752, 1.3619, 1.3583, 1.3535, 1.3454
• Resistance levels: 1.3858, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading above the moving average lines, but the balance is forming before the news. The MACD indicator is positive, but the divergence is present. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3752, but with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3858, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout or reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3583, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).