COT Energy Speculators Weekly Bets led lower by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

September 11, 2022

By InvestMacro

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculators reduced their positioning in the energy markets. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (3,625 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,147 contracts) also showing a positive week.


Free Reports:

Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.





Sign Up for Our Stock Market Newsletter – Get updated on News, Charts & Rankings of Public Companies when you join our Stocks Newsletter





The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-14,711 contracts) and Natural Gas (-9,873 contracts) with Heating Oil (-7,336 contracts) and Gasoline (-536 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,480,320 1 214,478 1 -240,417 99 25,939 43
Gold 465,908 4 103,857 4 -114,064 98 10,207 0
Silver 138,300 5 -12,784 0 5,055 100 7,729 6
Copper 160,251 2 -23,990 19 26,820 84 -2,830 9
Palladium 6,065 1 -1,602 14 2,129 87 -527 13
Platinum 78,610 53 -6,751 0 3,152 100 3,599 12
Natural Gas 984,642 5 -138,638 37 105,802 64 32,836 58
Brent 163,666 11 -36,388 50 32,508 47 3,880 62
Heating Oil 280,210 27 17,860 69 -36,089 33 18,229 62
Soybeans 606,187 7 81,251 38 -50,826 71 -30,425 20
Corn 1,280,087 2 286,547 67 -230,702 39 -55,845 11
Coffee 193,938 7 47,168 80 -49,276 25 2,108 19
Sugar 760,601 11 57,771 49 -61,944 56 4,173 13
Wheat 289,329 0 -9,759 6 13,677 79 -3,918 90

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (68.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) lead the energy markets currently. Brent Crude Oil (50.1 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores and above the 3-Year midpoint.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (1.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (1.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (4.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (50.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (44.0 percent)
Natural Gas (37.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (39.9 percent)
Gasoline (21.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (21.7 percent)
Heating Oil (68.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (79.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (8.6 percent) and Gasoline (3.8 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude Oil (-11.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Natural Gas (-6.1 percent) followed by Heating Oil (-1.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-11.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (8.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (2.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-2.5 percent)
Gasoline (3.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.9 percent)
Heating Oil (-1.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (23.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (6.0 percent)


Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 214,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 229,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 40.5 5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.5 56.8 3.6
– Net Position: 214,478 -240,417 25,939
– Gross Longs: 326,007 599,689 78,942
– Gross Shorts: 111,529 840,106 53,003
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.0 99.4 43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.8 11.6 2.8

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.6 52.6 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 32.8 2.8
– Net Position: -36,388 32,508 3,880
– Gross Longs: 28,735 86,126 8,497
– Gross Shorts: 65,123 53,618 4,617
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 47.3 61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.6 -13.4 40.0

 


Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -138,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.6 42.3 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 31.5 3.4
– Net Position: -138,638 105,802 32,836
– Gross Longs: 163,659 416,041 66,617
– Gross Shorts: 302,297 310,239 33,781
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.0 64.2 57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.1 7.2 -5.7

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 49,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 47.3 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.5 68.1 6.5
– Net Position: 49,166 -50,738 1,572
– Gross Longs: 79,830 115,591 17,453
– Gross Shorts: 30,664 166,329 15,881
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.2 82.7 23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.8 -0.4 -22.3

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.0 53.5 15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.7 66.4 8.5
– Net Position: 17,860 -36,089 18,229
– Gross Longs: 42,125 149,862 42,127
– Gross Shorts: 24,265 185,951 23,898
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.7 32.8 61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 -2.7 11.7

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.2 73.8 0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.2 58.2 0.1
– Net Position: -10,420 10,122 298
– Gross Longs: 15,696 47,944 388
– Gross Shorts: 26,116 37,822 90
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 4.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.6 32.2 21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.1 -20.3 1.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

contributors

Share
Published by
contributors

Recent Posts

Canadian dollar declines after weak GDP data. Qatar threatens EU to halt natural gas exports

By JustMarkets At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.16%. The S&P…

16 hours ago

US Dollar Index Speculator bets rise for 1st time in 7 weeks, AUD bets plunge

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

2 days ago

Speculator Extremes: New Zealand Dollar, Euro & CAD lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro  The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released…

4 days ago

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

4 days ago

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

4 days ago

This website uses cookies.