The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0643
• Prev Close: 1.0745
• % chg. over the last day: +0.95%

US private-sector jobs increased much less than expected in May, according to ADP data, indicating labor demand is starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. The US central bank is trying to reduce demand for labor without raising the unemployment rate too high.

• Support levels: 1.0702, 1.0679, 1.0643, 1.0611, 1.0568, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379
• Resistance levels: 1.0756, 1.0786, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator is positive again, and buying pressure has returned. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0702 or 1.0679, but only with confirmation and short targets. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0756, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2480
• Prev Close: 1.2572
• % chg. over the last day: +0.73%

Yesterday and today, there were banking holidays in the UK, but GBP/USD quotes increased against the decline in the dollar index. Investors do not want to buy the pound amid the uncertainty of the Bank of England policy and the fact that the UK economy is slowly sliding into recession.

• Support levels: 1.2558, 1.2502, 1.2471, 1.2437, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
• Resistance levels: 1.2628, 1.2669, 1.2698, 1.2770

The GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish on the hourly time frame. The MACD indicator is positive again, sellers’ pressure has decreased. The price is trading at the levels of the moving averages. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2558, but only with additional confirmation and short targets. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2628, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2437 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 130.09
• Prev Close: 129.89
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

The fundamental picture for the USD/JPY currency pair remains the same. The Fed is tightening monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan, on the contrary, holds a soft policy, and nothing will change soon. As a rule, monetary tightening leads to a strengthening of the national currency, while easing, on the contrary, leads to depreciation. As a result, the USD/JPY quotes tend to grow mid-term. Japan Services PMI has grown from 50.7 to 52.6, a good sign of economic recovery.

• Support levels: 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64, 127.24, 127.04
• Resistance levels: 130.12, 130.99

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency is bullish. The price is steadily growing, the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and there is no sign of reversal. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 129.48, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 130.12 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 128.10, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2655
• Prev Close: 1.2569
• % chg. over the last day: +0.68%

After the Central Bank of Canada raised its overnight base rate by half a percentage point to 1.5%, Deputy Governor Paul Baudry on Thursday gave new guidance on how high borrowing costs could be. The discount rate could now rise to the maximum or even above what the Bank of Canada considers its “neutral range”, estimated at between 2% and 3%. This is a green light for the Canadian currency to strengthen.

• Support levels: 1.2566, 1.2510
• Resistance levels: 1.2623, 1.2676, 1.2728, 1.2765, 1.2807, 1.2893, 1.2953, 1.3000

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone. The selling pressure is still there. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2566, but it is better to wait for the bullish initiative. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2623, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2728, the uptrend will likely resume.