The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.05.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0545
• Prev Close: 1.0460
• % chg. over the last day: -0.81%

The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone decreased from 7.5% to 7.4%. These are signs that inflation is slowing down. But it is a negative sign for the European currency as the ECB does not need to conduct a more aggressive monetary policy and rush to end its stimulus program. Today the ECB will publish the April minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

• Support levels: 1.0445, 1.0379, 1.0342
• Resistance levels: 1.0515, 1.0545, 1.0587, 1.0646, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hour timeframe is still bearish. The price is balanced now, as it is trading between the moving averages. The MACD is negative again. Under such market conditions, it is possible to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.0545, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0445, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0545 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2490
• Prev Close: 1.2337
• % chg. over the last day: -1.24%

The UK Finance Minister Sunak yesterday pointed out that unlimited fiscal stimulus risks exacerbating the inflation problem. In the UK there is an increasing conflict between the government and the Bank of England. The government is criticizing the policy for its inability to curb the rise in inflation rates. With a high probability, the Bank of England will begin to take more decisive action to save its face.

• Support levels: 1.2443, 1.2283, 1.2199
• Resistance levels: 1.2393, 1.2467, 1.2519, 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend changed to bullish. The MACD indicator became negative, and the price pullbacks to the moving averages. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2343 or 1.2283, but only with additional confirmation. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2467, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2200 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely be resumed.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 129.40
• Prev Close: 128.24
• % chg. over the last day: -0.90%

More than 60% of Japanese companies want the central bank to end its policy of massive monetary easing this fiscal year because of yen weakness, with about a quarter urging it to take action now. A rapid slide in the yen to a two-decade low has jacked up prices of fuel and raw materials imports, lifting not only corporate costs but also hitting household spending. The Bank of Japan is not going to change its monetary policy yet, but it should be noted that Japan’s inflation rate is close to the 2% target. Now Kuroda wants to see inflation be sustainable.

• Support levels: 128.29, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
• Resistance levels: 128.93, 129.34, 130.12, 130.99

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency has changed to bearish. The Japanese yen is being bought by investors as a safe-haven currency, so the yen is temporarily strengthening. But despite the change in the trend on the hour timeframe, it is better to look for buy deals with the expectation of an uptrend continuation since the Japanese Yen has no fundamental support. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 128.29, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 129.34 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 130.12, the uptrend will likely be resumed.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2809
• Prev Close: 1.2892
• % chg. over the last day: +0.64%

The growth of consumer prices in Canada showed 0.6% in April. On an annualized basis, the inflation rate reached 6.8%. Most of the price growth was driven by food and housing prices. Core inflation (excluding food and fuel prices) increased from 5.5% to 5.8%. This is the fastest rate of growth since 1999. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to affect energy prices, commodity prices, and primarily food prices.

• Support levels: 1.2826, 1.2774, 1.2692, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
• Resistance levels: 1.2858, 1.2904, 1.2953, 1.3000, 1.3052

The USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish in terms of technical analysis. But now the price is balanced, the MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price is trading between the moving averages. It is worth trading only with short targets because, fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are inclined to grow. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2826, but only with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2858 or 1.2904, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.3000, the uptrend will likely be resumed.