The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.04.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0803
• Prev Close: 1.0780
• % chg. over the last day: -0.21%

Yesterday, there was a bank holiday in almost all European countries, so volatility was low. Fundamentally, the European currency now looks weaker than the dollar index as the Fed is already tightening monetary policy. At the same time, the ECB will only complete its bond-buying program in the third quarter of 2022. Russia continues to attack Ukraine, so Europe will continue to be under price pressure.

• Support levels: 1.0727, 1.0633
• Resistance levels: 1.0844, 1.0889, 1.0958, 1.1027, 1.1196, 1.1291

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair in the hourly time frame is bearish. Against the uncertainty from ECB, the euro continues to lose ground. The MACD indicator has become negative, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is possible to look for buy trades on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0727, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell trades should be considered from the resistance level of 1.0844 or 1.0889, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0958 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3046
• Prev Close: 1.3010
• % chg. over the last day: -0.27%

The British currency now looks more confident than the euro as the Bank of England has already raised interest rates three times. Economic data shows no signs of stagflation (slowing economic growth with high inflation). But GBP/USD is still declining due to the growth of the dollar index.

• Support levels: 1.2993, 1.3023
• Resistance levels: 1.3026, 1.3094, 1.3115, 1.3147, 1.3244, 1.3274

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. The MACD indicator has become negative, but there is divergence on the intraday timeframes. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.3027 or 1.3094, but with confirmation. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2993, but only after the appearance of a bullish initiative and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3147 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 126.41
• Prev Close: 126.99
• % chg. over the last day: +0.46%

The Japanese yen is approaching its longest decline in 20 years as divergent policies between the central banks of Japan and the US have led to a depreciation of the Japanese currency and a rise in the dollar index. Many investors are betting on a further fall in the yen. Recent CFTC data shows that net short positions in the yen are the largest in three and a half years. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that the damage to the economy from the weakening yen is now greater than the benefits, which is the clearest warning against the recent currency decline.

• Support levels: 126.69, 125.72, 124.66, 124.24, 122.97, 122.63, 121.81
• Resistance levels: 128.19

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become positive again, but on the higher timeframes, there is a divergence. The price has deviated greatly from the moving averages and does not make significant pullbacks. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend, but after the price makes a pullback to the average lines. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 126.69, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 128.19 may be considered for sell deals, but only after the appearance of a bearish initiative.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 124.66, the uptrend will likely be broken.

• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2608
• Prev Close: 1.2608
• % chg. over the last day: 0.00%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly dependent on the movement of oil prices and the dollar index. The dollar index continued to rise, but oil prices are also rising for the fourth day in a row, as disruptions in Libya worsen the situation for supplies from Russia. As a result, in terms of fundamental factors, USD/CAD quotes have no unified dynamics at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.2567, 1.2467
• Resistance levels: 1.2644, 1.2713, 1.2754, 1.2851

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become negative. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, there are no prerequisites for the medium-term trend on the USD/CAD currency pair. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2567, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2644, but it is also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2467, the downtrend will likely be resumed.