The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.04.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0879
• Prev Close: 1.0829
• % chg. over the last day: -0.46%

The European Central Bank has left its monetary policy unchanged. At a press conference, ECB head Christine Lagarde said the bank is sticking to its plans to end its stimulus program in the third quarter. However, no specific dates have been set, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine. The interest rate hike will begin sometime after the end of the asset purchase program. The ECB faces a difficult political compromise, which is much more difficult than other markets. Analysts predict that the ECB will raise rates by the fourth quarter of this year or early 2023.

• Support levels: 1.0727, 1.0633
• Resistance levels: 1.0843, 1.0889, 1.0958, 1.1027, 1.1075, 1.1135, 1.1196, 1.1291

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair in the hourly time frame is bearish. Against the uncertainty from ECB, the Euro dropped sharply yesterday. The MACD indicator has become negative. Under such market conditions, it is possible to look for buy trades on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0827, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell trades should be considered from the resistance levels of 1.0843 or 1.0889, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1075 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3098
• Prev Close: 1.3079
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

Yesterday, the dollar index increased as the euro fell and after data showed an increase in US retail sales in March. The growth of the dollar index is negatively affecting the British pound, but it should be noted that the UK economy is currently one of the most stable in Europe.

• Support levels: 1.3041, 1.3023
• Resistance levels: 1.3115, 1.3147, 1.3244, 1.3274

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. Yesterday, the price corrected to the moving average lines. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.3115, but with confirmation. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.3023, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3147 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 125.57
• Prev Close: 125.88
• % chg. over the last day: +0.24%

The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now “ultra-soft” and aims to decrease the national currency rate (USD/JPY growth). The US Fed will tighten monetary policy more aggressively. The medium-term forecast remains unchanged – analysts see a continuation of the uptrend, as the monetary policies of the central banks in the United States and Japan are now opposed.

• Support levels: 125.72, 124.66, 124.24, 122.97, 122.63, 121.81
• Resistance levels: 126.69

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become positive again. On the higher timeframes, there is a divergence. But the price has deviated very much from the moving averages. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend, but after the price makes a pullback to the average lines. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 125.72 or 124.66, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 126.69 may be considered for sell deals, but only after the appearance of a bearish initiative.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 122.97, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2562
• Prev Close: 1.2605
• % chg. over the last day: +0.34%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly dependent on the movement of oil prices and the dollar index. The dollar index continued to rise yesterday, but oil prices also jumped on the news that the EU may impose a phased ban on Russian oil imports. As a result, USD/CAD quotes don’t have a single dynamics right now.

• Support levels: 1.2567, 1.2467
• Resistance levels: 1.2644, 1.2713, 1.2754, 1.2851

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become positive, but the buyers’ pressure has decreased. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, there are no prerequisites for the medium-term trend on the USD/CAD currency pair. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2567, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2644, but it is also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2467, the downtrend will likely be resumed.