The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.03.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0978
• Prev Close: 1.1086
• % chg. over the last day: +0.98%

Inflation data will be published in Germany and Spain today. Analysts expect Spain’s consumer price index to rise by 0.4%, while Germany’s inflation will add 1.6% over the month. The ECB currently has no plans to change its monetary policy until the end of 2022. But if inflation in Europe continues to accelerate, the ECB will be forced to reconsider its plans. Therefore, investors should also not miss the speech of ECB head Christine Lagarde today.

• Support levels: 1.1037, 1.1017, 1.0963, 1.0917, 1.0887, 1.0823, 1.0633
• Resistance levels: 1.1136, 1.1291

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame has changed to bullish. The price confidently broke through the priority change level and consolidated above the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, the buyers’ pressure has intensified. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.1037. Sell trades should be considered from the support level of 1.1136, but only after a false breakout and only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0963 support level and fixes below, the uptrend will likely be broken.

• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Germany Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
• – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member George Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3084
• Prev Close: 1.3093
• % chg. over the last day: +0.07%

The British pound also strengthened yesterday, but not as much as the euro. The debt market continues to see a falling spread between the US and UK government bonds yield, hurting the British pound. But against the backdrop of the weakening of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and due to the dollar index decline, the GBP/USD currency pair may show a wave of growth. But the medium-term fundamental picture is still on the side of the dollar index.

• Support levels: 1.3106, 1.3074, 1.3015, 1.2989, 1.2863
• Resistance levels: 1.3181, 1.3244, 1.3274

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish. The price failed to break through the priority change level. The price made a false breakdown, followed by the buyers’ initiative. The MACD indicator became inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3106, but better with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3181, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3074 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 123.76
• Prev Close: 122.87
• % chg. over the last day: -0.72%

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government will keep a close eye on the national currency to prevent a “bad” weak yen that hurts the economy. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is now “ultra-soft,” because Japan wants to slightly accelerate inflation, one of the lowest in the world. Due to the fall of the dollar index and the Central Bank of Japan’s work in the debt market, the Japanese yen might temporarily strengthen.

• Support levels: 120.88, 119.52, 117.72
• Resistance levels: 122.83, 123.44, 125.22

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But amid the decline in the dollar index, the price began a corrective movement. The MACD indicator has become negative. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 120.88, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, a resistance level of 122.83 or 123.44 may be considered, but only after the sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 119.52, the uptrend will likely be broken.

• – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2518
• Prev Close: 1.2501
• % chg. over the last day: -0.14%

Currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are commodity currencies that are highly dependent on oil price movements and the dollar index. Yesterday, oil prices began to recover, and the dollar index fell. This led to a decline in USD/CAD quotes, as rising oil prices strengthen the Canadian currency. The monetary policy of the Central Bank of Canada is aimed at tightening, contributing to the strengthening of the Canadian currency.

• Support levels: 1.2481, 1.2453
• Resistance levels: 1.2563, 1.2655, 1.2713, 1.2754, 1.2851

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, signs of divergence are still present. Trade only with short targets, since on the USD/CAD currency pair fundamentally, there are no prerequisites for the medium-term trend, as the dollar index in the medium term also has the support of the Fed. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2481 or 1.2453, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2563.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2654, the downtrend will likely be broken.

• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).