The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.03.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1030
• Prev Close: 1.1005
• % chg. over the last day: -0.22%

On Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester were the other Fed policymakers, indicating that the central bank is planning a larger interest rate hike at its May meeting. Analysts on Wednesday updated their Fed forecast in light of Powell’s comments and now expect a 50 basis point rate hike in both May and June meetings.

• Support levels: 1.0962, 1.0917, 1.0887, 1.0823, 1.0633
• Resistance levels: 1.1025, 1.1079, 1.1112, 1.1291

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bearish. At the moment, the price is trading in a wide corridor. The MACD indicator has become inactive again. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell trades on the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.1025. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.0917, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1079 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone ECB Economic Bulletin at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone EU Leaders Summit at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Waller’s Speaks at 15:10 (GMT+2);
• – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
• – US Services PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Bostic’s Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3257
• Prev Close: 1.3201
• % chg. over the last day: -0.42%

UK Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak announced tax cuts for workers and lower fuel duties following inflation data, seeking to mitigate the severe cost of living cuts amid rapidly rising prices and slowing economic growth.

• Support levels: 1.3173, 1.3140, 1.3015, 1.2989, 1.2863
• Resistance levels: 1.3244, 1.3274

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend has changed to bullish. Yesterday the price slightly corrected to the moving lines, where traders can look to buy trades. The MACD indicator has become negative. Under such market conditions, buy deals should be considered from the support level of 1.3208, but better with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3274, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3016 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 120.81
• Prev Close: 121.11
• % chg. over the last day: +0.24%

On Tuesday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the central bank should maintain ultra-loose monetary policy because cost-push inflation could hurt the economy. High commodity prices are also negative for the yen since Japan imports most of its energy. Considering that the US Federal Reserve has already started raising interest rates and is planning another 6-7 rate hikes at each meeting, this situation favors USD/JPY quotes growth in the mid-term.

• Support levels: 120.78, 119.96, 119.52, 118.58, 118.06
• Resistance levels: 121.52, 122.17

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. There are signs of overbought and divergence on several time frames. The price has reached the daily resistance level. There is a high probability of downward correction movement. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals after a pullback, as the price has strongly deviated from the moving averages. A support level of 120.78 or 119.96 would be the best, but with additional confirmation. The resistance level of 121.52 can be considered for sell deals, but only after the sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 118.59, the uptrend will likely be broken.

• – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2570
• Prev Close: 1.2570
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07%

The fundamental picture for the Canadian dollar remains the same. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it is highly dependent not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. Oil prices continue to rise because Europe is trying to cut oil and gas supplies from Russia, and Russia wants to convert payments for gas into rubles. Crude oil inventories are also very low by historical standards, so any disruption in global supply would significantly impact prices. At the same time, rising inflation in Canada increases the likelihood of more aggressive interest rates hikes. All these factors strengthen the Canadian currency (decrease in USD/CAD quotes).

• Support levels: 1.2555, 1.2517
• Resistance levels: 1.2655, 1.2713, 1.2754, 1.2851

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish. The price has reached the daily support level. The MACD indicator has become inactive, sellers’ pressure is decreasing, there are signs of divergence. The narrowing of liquidity in the form of a triangle indicates a soon impulse movement. It is worth trading only with short targets because on the USD/CAD currency pair fundamentally, there are no prerequisites for a medium-term trend, as the dollar index also has the support of the Fed in the medium term. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2555, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2655.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2713, the downtrend will likely be broken.