The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.02.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1336
• Prev Close: 1.1306
• % chg. over the last day: -0.26%

In a speech yesterday, Fed official James Bullard reiterated calls for faster rate hikes, though other officials were more cautious in their public statements. The European currency is now under double pressure, with the Fed plans on the one hand and the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe on the other, which negatively affects the euro rate.

• Support levels: 1.1275
• Resistance levels: 1.1368, 1.1392, 1.1423, 1.1481, 1.1534

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hourly time frame has changed to bearish. The price broke through the priority change level yesterday and consolidated lower. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked at from the support level of 1.1275, but only with additional confirmation. Sell trades are better to look for on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.1368.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1423 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3542
• Prev Close: 1.3532
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07%

The British pound is now more stable than the euro as the Bank of England has already raised interest rates twice, supporting the British currency from financial turmoil. Rising Brent oil prices are also good for the pound. A lot of statistics on the UK labor market will be published today. Analysts expect to see an improvement in figures.

• Support levels: 1.3496, 1.3475, 1.3457
• Resistance levels: 1.3547, 1.3594, 1.3639, 1.3662

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bullish. Unlike the euro, the British pound has fundamental support. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked at from the support level 1.3475 or 1.3496. The resistance level of 1.3594 may be considered for opening sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3475 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario will be broken.

• – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 115.37
• Prev Close: 115.53
• % chg. over the last day: +0.14%

The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at making the Japanese yen cheaper because of the maximum stimulus. At the same time, the Fed plans to tighten its monetary policy aggressively. Such opposite policies of central banks contribute to the growth of USD/JPY quotes. However, it should be noted that the Japanese yen is considered a safe-haven currency in case of panic in the market. As the situation in Eastern Europe deteriorated sharply, investors began to buy the Japanese yen, which led to a temporary decrease in USD/JPY quotes. However, as soon as the situation is resolved, USD/JPY quotes will go up again. Japan’s GDP growth in the last quarter was 1.3% (expectation +1.5%) and reached 5.4% on an annualized basis.

• Support levels: 115.21, 115.02, 114.76
• Resistance levels: 115.85, 116.12, 116.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the price tested the priority change level, but the buyers managed to protect their positions again. The MACD indicator became inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals on the lower time frames from the support level of 115.21, but with additional confirmation. Sell positions can be looked at from the resistance level 115.85, but only with short targets and additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 115.02, the uptrend will likely be broken.

• – Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2729
• Prev Close: 1.2725
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. The USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading in a wide corridor, and now both currencies have fundamental support. On the one hand, the worsened situation in Eastern Europe contributes to the growth of the dollar index. On the other hand, oil prices are also rising due to the same geopolitics and limited supply. WTI crude oil futures reached $95 a barrel for the first time since 2014, and analysts forecast $100 a barrel in the near term.

• Support levels: 1.2685, 1.2664, 1.2600, 1.2506
• Resistance levels: 1.2769, 1.2794

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is in a wide flat with high volatility. It is worth trading only with short targets, as both oil and the dollar index are inclined to grow now. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2685. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2794, but with an additional confirmation in the form of an initiative of sellers.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2664 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.