The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.02.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1231
• Prev Close: 1.1273
• % chg. over the last day: +0.37%

Germany’s consumer price index showed a decline of 0.4% to 5.1% in annual terms, but analysts expected a stronger decrease in German inflation. In January, Spain’s consumer prices declined by 0.5% in annual terms. The inflation rate fell from 6.5% to 6.0%. The actual unemployment rate in the Eurozone was 7%. Inflation in Europe has started to fall, and the labor market is also showing a recovery. But the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector showed a decline in almost all major economies in the region.

• Support levels: 1.1243, 1.1183, 1.1121
• Resistance levels: 1.1277, 1.1308

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. But in the last two days, the price has been rapidly growing and approaching the priority change level. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell trades from the resistance level of 1.1277. Buy deals can be considered only after a true breakout of the priority change level upwards.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1277 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will be renewed.

• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3443
• Prev Close: 1.3523
• % chg. over the last day: +0.59%

The UK Manufacturing PMI Index showed an increase over last month. The UK economy is showing a recovery. The British pound is rising on the back of a declining dollar index and an expected interest rate hike from the Bank of England at tomorrow’s meeting.

• Support levels: 1.3459, 1.3415, 1.3352
• Resistance levels: 1.3524, 1.3583, 1.3633, 1.3662

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The price has reached the priority change level, and the sellers’ reaction is still weak. Under such market conditions, sell deals are best to look at from the resistance levels of 1.3524, but after additional confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3352, but only with an additional confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative. Buy deals can be considered only after a true breakout of the priority change level upwards.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3524 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario will be broken.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 115.04
• Prev Close: 114.67
• % chg. over the last day: -0.32%

The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at making the Japanese yen cheaper because of the maximum economic stimulus, while the Fed is tightening monetary policy. But amid a drop in the dollar index, the Japanese yen has strengthened over the past two days. Analysts remain confident that USD/JPY will rise this year.

• Support levels: 114.64, 114.37
• Resistance levels: 114.87, 115.55, 115.73

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price has now corrected to the area of the moving average. It is best to buy from the support levels of 114.64 or 114.37 on the lower time frames. There are no optimal entry points for sell deals now.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 114.37, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2702
• Prev Close: 1.2683
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. An OPEC+ meeting will be held today, and the data on crude oil inventories will be published. Usually, such events increase volatility on oil charts, so the Canadian dollar will also react. According to preliminary information, OPEC+ countries see no reason to change their production plan.

• Support levels: 1.2679, 1.2649, 1.2613, 1.2586, 1.2506
• Resistance levels: 1.2729, 1.2792

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price decreased to the moving average, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels of 1.2649 or 1.2679. There are no optimal entry points to sell deals now.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2613 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – OPEC+ Meeting at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
• – Canada BOC Governor Macklem’s Speech at 22:00 (GMT+2).