COT Forex Speculators US Dollar Index bullish bets climb to 117-week high

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 4th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the continued strength in the US Dollar Index futures bets. Speculators raised their bullish bets in the Dollar Index for a third consecutive week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. Since turning bullish on July 6th, Dollar Index bullish bets have had positive weekly gains in twenty-two out of the past twenty-seven weeks. This positive sentiment has brought the overall speculator standing (current total of +39,078 contracts) to the highest level since October 8th of 2019, a span of 117 weeks. The current speculator strength score (current level compared to past three years of data, above 80 is bullish-extreme, below 20 is bearish-extreme) for the Dollar Index is currently at 93.2 percent for a bullish-extreme reading.

Joining the US Dollar Index (2,289 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (5,080 contracts), Brazil real (4,210 contracts), Swiss franc (1,189 contracts) and the British pound sterling (11,548 contracts).

The currencies with declining speculator bets were the yen (-9,160 contracts), Australian dollar (-7,625 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-424 contracts), Canadian dollar (-691 contracts), Russian ruble (-1,135 contracts) and Bitcoin (-62 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-482 contracts).

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US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 39,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.2	2.9	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	79.9	3.3
– Net Position:	39,078	-44,717	5,639
– Gross Longs:	47,750	1,692	7,571
– Gross Shorts:	8,672	46,409	1,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.0 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	0.3	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-5.9	2.9

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	57.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	61.2	7.8
– Net Position:	-1,554	-26,458	28,012
– Gross Longs:	199,073	388,742	81,029
– Gross Shorts:	200,627	415,200	53,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	68.2	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-2.7	-8.7

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	75.2	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	50.4	15.5
– Net Position:	-39,171	49,516	-10,345
– Gross Longs:	25,980	150,332	20,573
– Gross Shorts:	65,151	100,816	30,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	59.0	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	2.2	1.8

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -62,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	72.9	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	36.7	17.4
– Net Position:	-62,262	84,744	-22,482
– Gross Longs:	40,816	170,537	18,339
– Gross Shorts:	103,078	85,793	40,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	78.3	1.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.1	-15.6	-7.6

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	62.0	27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	27.4	39.2
– Net Position:	-9,529	14,628	-5,099
– Gross Longs:	4,510	26,204	11,466
– Gross Shorts:	14,039	11,576	16,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	47.3	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-7.8	14.8

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	45.1	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	38.8	18.6
– Net Position:	-11,025	8,542	2,483
– Gross Longs:	41,905	61,198	27,649
– Gross Shorts:	52,930	52,656	25,166
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	61.7	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	13.5	-24.0

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -89,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	81.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.6	25.0	16.4
– Net Position:	-89,366	100,809	-11,443
– Gross Longs:	12,632	145,915	18,060
– Gross Shorts:	101,998	45,106	29,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	94.1	24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.5	20.4	-3.1

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	67.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	41.9	11.1
– Net Position:	-8,845	10,335	-1,490
– Gross Longs:	9,417	27,208	3,000
– Gross Shorts:	18,262	16,873	4,490
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	46.3	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.2	38.8	-27.6

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	57.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.4	51.3	2.9
– Net Position:	-9,490	7,127	2,363
– Gross Longs:	44,876	68,595	5,860
– Gross Shorts:	54,366	61,468	3,497
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	75.8	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-18.1	14.8

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	52.4	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	47.8	10.2
– Net Position:	-1,076	1,284	-208
– Gross Longs:	10,776	14,785	2,657
– Gross Shorts:	11,852	13,501	2,865
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	35.1	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-18.8	4.2

 

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Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	53.7	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	72.3	2.1
– Net Position:	7,329	-8,873	1,544
– Gross Longs:	19,490	25,610	2,557
– Gross Shorts:	12,161	34,483	1,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.7	65.2	76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.4	24.0	7.7

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -62 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.5	4.1	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.2	5.0	7.6
– Net Position:	-604	-93	697
– Gross Longs:	7,767	437	1,498
– Gross Shorts:	8,371	530	801
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.2	21.7	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	-78.3	28.8

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.