The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1208
• Prev Close: 1.1307
• % chg. over the last day: +0.88%

Electricity prices in the Eurozone are rising again despite the risk of another lockdown. Inflationary pressures in Germany continue to rise. German import prices have increased to 21.7% in annual terms, the largest value since 1980. Germany will report today on the inflation rate.

• Support levels: 1.1230, 1.1168
• Resistance levels: 1.1350, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator has become positive; there is a buyers’ initiative. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the priority change level of 1.1350. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame, given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1350 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – Germany Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
• – S Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 19:15 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Clarida’s Speech at 20:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 22:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Chair Powell’s Speech at 22:05 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3320
• Prev Close: 1.3326
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05%

Last month, the price spike in the UK forced some industrial companies to cut production and seek government aid. For the government, it could mean tensions with neighboring countries over supply protection measures. For households, it could mean being asked to use less energy.

• Support levels: 1.3307
• Resistance levels: 1.3360, 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685, 1.3748

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive but is signaling divergence on several time frames. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the support levels around the moving average. The buyers need to get the price back above the 1.3360 level, so buy trades should be considered only if the price returns to the 1.3360-1.3507 corridor, given the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3434 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 115.29
• Prev Close: 113.23
• % chg. over the last day: -1.82%

The Japanese yen strengthened sharply on Friday as a new strain of Covid-19 detected in South Africa sparked a wave of caution in global markets. The Japanese Yen is one of the “safe-haven” currencies in case of emergency shocks. But it is important to understand that this can only be a temporary effect. Fundamentally, there is no reason for JPY to get stronger as the Bank of Japan plans to keep its stimulus program as long as possible while the US FED has been already cutting the program.

• Support levels: 112.87, 112.30
• Resistance levels: 113.79, 114.48, 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bearish. The price confidently broke through the priority change level and consolidated lower. Under such market conditions, it is best for traders to look for sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average. Given the buyers ‘ initiative, buy positions should be considered from the support levels of the higher time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 115.15, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Japan Retail Sales at 01:50 (GMT+2);
• – Japan BoJ Gov Haruhiko Kuroda’s Speech (Tentative).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2647
• Prev Close: 1.2786
• % chg. over the last day: +1.10%

On Friday, oil prices fell sharply as news of the new strain “Omicron.” caused many countries to rush to restrict travel, which strengthened the concerns that there may be an excess supply in the first quarter of next year. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the CAD fell sharply against the dollar amid a drop in oil.

• Support levels: 1.2729, 1.2646, 1.2598, 1.2571, 1.2483, 1.2416, 1.2388
• Resistance levels: 1.2807

From a technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency is bullish. The MACD indicator became positive, the pressure of buyers is increasing. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels near the moving average. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2646 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – Canada BoC Gov Macklem’s Speech at 21:00 (GMT+2).