The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.09

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1557
• Prev Close: 1.1587
• % chg. over the last day: +0.26%

The ECB representative said yesterday that the Eurozone is almost back to pre-pandemic levels in economic terms, and inflation has been more resilient than expected. The biggest problem for the Eurozone remains the energy crisis. Rising energy prices in Germany hit a 20-year high yesterday.

• Support levels: 1.1573, 1.1535, 1.1502, 1.1453
• Resistance levels: 1.1613, 1.1645, 1.1667, 1.1717, 1.1772

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. But during the last two trading sessions, EUR/USD quotes are steadily growing without a significant pullback. The MACD indicator has become positive. The local pressure of buyers is higher at the moment. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average. There is no optimal entry point for buy trades at the moment.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1667 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 15:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Chair Powell’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Daly’s Speech at 18:35 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3476
• Prev Close: 1.3564
• % chg. over the last day: +0.65%

Yesterday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey announced a potential interest rate hike at the December meeting, indicating that the central bank will act decisively to contain inflationary pressures. This statement was a surprise for traders who rushed to close their long positions after the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. Also, the Bank of England head added that most of the growth of inflation is associated with the resumption of work after lockdowns.

• Support levels: 1.3562, 1.3482, 1.3360
• Resistance levels: 1.3616, 1.3685, 1.3748, 1.3780, 1.3831, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator became positive, indicating local buying pressure. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels around the moving average. There is no optimal entry point for buy trades at the moment.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3685 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

• – UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 18:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 113.33
• Prev Close: 113.22
• % chg. over the last day: -0.10%

Japan’s new government is working on a 35 trillion yen (307 billion US dollars) economic stimulus package. Such an injection into the economy will surely lead to higher inflation and the weakening of the Japanese currency.

• Support levels: 112.30, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
• Resistance levels: 113.42, 114.48, 115.15

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But the local trend is strictly bearish at the moment. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zone on the higher time frames. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.30, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2448
• Prev Close: 1.2440
• % chg. over the last day: -0.06%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair highly depends on the dollar index dynamics and oil prices. The dollar index slightly decreased yesterday, while oil prices remained unchanged. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading flat. Fundamentally, the Canadian dollar is tending to strengthen now as oil prices are rising and the Canadian central bank has begun to cut its stimulus program. On the other hand, a rise in the dollar index may eliminate these factors.

• Support levels: 1.2428, 1.2352, 1.2306, 1.2260
• Resistance levels: 1.2518, 1.2565, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From the technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency trend has changed to bullish. The price broke through the priority change level and consolidated above. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and there are no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels, given there is the buyers’ initiative. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frame.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2351 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.