COT Speculators push US Dollar bullish bets higher for 20th time in 23 weeks

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to the Thanksgiving holiday last week.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 23rd 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting last week’s currency data is the US Dollar Index speculator bets continuing to climb higher. The Dollar Index positions rose for the third time in the past four weeks and have now increased for twenty out of the past twenty-three weeks as the net position has risen by a total of 38,078 contracts over that period. The dollar positioning has been over the +34,000 contract level for seven weeks in a row and if the position hits above +40,000 contracts, it would mark the first time since October of 2019 to hit that threshold. The Dollar Index strength index (compared to its three year range of positioning) remains in extreme bullish territory (over 80 percent) at an 87.5 score and has now been above 80 percent for eight consecutive weeks. The last time the Dollar Index had registered a bullish extreme level was also in October of 2019 when it rose as high as 94.5 percent before cooling off.

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US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.7	3.0	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	74.3	3.4
– Net Position:	35,775	-41,146	5,371
– Gross Longs:	47,116	1,739	7,357
– Gross Shorts:	11,341	42,885	1,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.5	6.2	75.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	2.6	-24.7

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,826 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	56.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	59.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-16,452	-16,835	33,287
– Gross Longs:	204,214	403,595	90,690
– Gross Shorts:	220,666	420,430	57,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	71.0	29.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-2.2	9.8

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -34,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,599 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	62.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	41.3	15.8
– Net Position:	-34,579	45,803	-11,224
– Gross Longs:	50,122	133,888	22,470
– Gross Shorts:	84,701	88,085	33,694
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	56.8	32.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	15.1	-6.2

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -97,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	81.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	35.6	16.4
– Net Position:	-97,253	116,225	-18,972
– Gross Longs:	20,285	205,923	22,338
– Gross Shorts:	117,538	89,698	41,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.8	93.9	8.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	10.5	-1.1

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	65.6	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	24.6	41.7
– Net Position:	-11,376	21,522	-10,146
– Gross Longs:	6,241	34,403	11,695
– Gross Shorts:	17,617	12,881	21,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	55.1	33.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-9.5	20.1

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	44.0	24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	51.6	15.0
– Net Position:	-3,135	-11,397	14,532
– Gross Longs:	44,320	66,164	37,111
– Gross Shorts:	47,455	77,561	22,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	44.5	68.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-14.5	-2.4

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -63,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	65.4	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	26.3	15.5
– Net Position:	-63,265	73,423	-10,158
– Gross Longs:	40,523	122,921	18,914
– Gross Shorts:	103,788	49,498	29,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	73.7	27.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-21.3	10.3

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.5	24.6	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	58.0	8.3
– Net Position:	13,939	-14,860	921
– Gross Longs:	27,835	10,943	4,596
– Gross Shorts:	13,896	25,803	3,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.7	7.5	62.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-10.3	17.4

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -49,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,655 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	53.2	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.6	25.7	2.9
– Net Position:	-49,461	50,588	-1,127
– Gross Longs:	80,691	98,029	4,234
– Gross Shorts:	130,152	47,441	5,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	100.0	38.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	5.7	-12.7

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	64.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.8	20.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-14,804	15,360	-556
– Gross Longs:	9,197	22,233	2,462
– Gross Shorts:	24,001	6,873	3,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	53.9	60.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	20.6	-12.5

 

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Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.7	45.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	82.7	2.6
– Net Position:	18,064	-19,323	1,259
– Gross Longs:	25,617	23,317	2,601
– Gross Shorts:	7,553	42,640	1,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	41.2	68.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	5.5	-31.2

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.1	6.7	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.2	1.7	18.5
– Net Position:	-160	729	-569
– Gross Longs:	9,054	966	2,094
– Gross Shorts:	9,214	237	2,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.6	100.0	0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.6	16.6	-32.7

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.