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COT Soft Commodities Charts: Coffee Speculators push bullish bets to over 4-month high

October 15, 2021

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 12th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s data is Coffee which saw speculators raise their bullish net positions to the highest level in over four months. Coffee bullish bets have now increased for nine consecutive weeks and came in this week at a total of 69,085 contracts. This marks the second highest level on record and just below the all-time high set on June 1st of this year at a total of 70,773 contracts. Speculators currently have a 99 percent strength index score which means that speculative trader sentiment is at the very top of the range over the past three years.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-12-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,231,227 48 404,776 41 -453,684 46 48,908 84
Gold 484,382 21 185,539 54 -207,614 46 22,075 33
Silver 139,403 6 17,987 40 -30,292 69 12,305 11
Copper 194,817 23 22,481 59 -25,867 42 3,386 45
Palladium 9,296 13 -2,496 4 2,625 95 -129 37
Platinum 59,344 21 10,919 18 -16,756 85 5,837 43
Natural Gas 1,314,022 40 -130,902 39 91,201 60 39,701 79
Brent 205,521 44 -34,924 57 29,563 37 5,361 82
Heating Oil 429,908 68 39,137 100 -65,644 1 26,507 90
Soybeans 759,101 35 41,990 41 -9,665 64 -32,325 18
Corn 1,400,377 4 279,288 66 -223,336 40 -55,952 11
Coffee 305,141 62 69,085 99 -73,808 2 4,723 21
Sugar 891,672 25 246,188 87 -294,674 12 48,486 68
Wheat 385,204 23 -4,534 43 12,969 53 -8,435 61

 

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 279,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 297,005 net contracts.

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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.8 49.0 9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.8 64.9 13.3
– Net Position: 279,288 -223,336 -55,952
– Gross Longs: 402,726 685,667 130,383
– Gross Shorts: 123,438 909,003 186,335
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.7 40.1 10.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.2 1.2 9.4

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 246,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 247,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.0 41.9 10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 74.9 5.3
– Net Position: 246,188 -294,674 48,486
– Gross Longs: 294,624 373,277 95,832
– Gross Shorts: 48,436 667,951 47,346
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.2 12.3 67.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 8.4 1.4

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 69,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,571 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.9 39.7 3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 63.9 2.4
– Net Position: 69,085 -73,808 4,723
– Gross Longs: 85,275 121,291 12,017
– Gross Shorts: 16,190 195,099 7,294
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.8 2.0 21.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -8.9 -4.7

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.7 58.2 6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 59.5 10.7
– Net Position: 41,990 -9,665 -32,325
– Gross Longs: 134,258 441,827 48,964
– Gross Shorts: 92,268 451,492 81,289
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.8 63.5 18.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.7 11.4 -15.6

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.7 49.0 12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.3 53.3 7.3
– Net Position: -2,587 -18,056 20,643
– Gross Longs: 83,287 207,667 51,696
– Gross Shorts: 85,874 225,723 31,053
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.3 71.5 53.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.2 21.5 19.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 42,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,937 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 44.4 10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.3 57.1 13.3
– Net Position: 42,789 -35,822 -6,967
– Gross Longs: 91,514 125,280 30,551
– Gross Shorts: 48,725 161,102 37,518
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 17.7 78.5 70.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.1 31.6 15.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 30.1 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.4 51.6 14.2
– Net Position: 71,544 -54,143 -17,401
– Gross Longs: 107,881 75,606 18,368
– Gross Shorts: 36,337 129,749 35,769
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.3 26.4 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.1 5.6 -10.6

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 111,391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.3 35.8 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 79.0 3.1
– Net Position: 111,391 -124,049 12,658
– Gross Longs: 124,338 102,682 21,438
– Gross Shorts: 12,947 226,731 8,780
– Long to Short Ratio: 9.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.7 5.4 92.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.0 -3.6 9.6

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,997 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.8 45.1 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.0 62.9 3.2
– Net Position: 40,221 -45,299 5,078
– Gross Longs: 78,546 115,118 13,171
– Gross Shorts: 38,325 160,417 8,093
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.0 38.4 66.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.2 -13.1 27.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 41.3 8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 37.9 10.3
– Net Position: -4,534 12,969 -8,435
– Gross Longs: 94,728 159,131 31,296
– Gross Shorts: 99,262 146,162 39,731
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.1 53.5 61.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.3 25.2 6.8

 

Article By InvestMacro.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).







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