The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.09.28

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1724
• Prev Close: 1.1695
• % chg. over the last day: -0.25%

ECB member De Kos said yesterday that the ECB’s monetary support cuts should be made with caution. At the same time, ECB head Christine Lagarde indicates that there is reason to believe that the energy crisis in Europe will not lead to long-term inflation. Analysts believe the opposite.

• Support levels: 1.1690, 1.1620
• Resistance levels: 1.1728, 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From the technical point of view, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is bullish, but for the last 3 trading sessions, the price has been trading near the priority change level. The MACD indicator shows a divergence. Under such market conditions, buy deals can be considered from the priority change level. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average or after the breakdown of priority change level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1704 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 15:00 (GMT+3);
• – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Bowman’s Speech at 20:40 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Bostic’s Speech at 22:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3658
• Prev Close: 1.3695
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27%

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said yesterday that the pace of economic recovery has slowed in recent months. However, the high prices will be temporary, according to the BoA. And to suppress inflation, the Bank of England should not consider cutting QE but immediately adjust the interest rate.

• Support levels: 1.3685, 1.3629, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3769, 1.3812, 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish, but the local trend is bullish again. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Buy trades should be considered only throughout the day and only with short targets from the support levels. Sell trades can be found at the resistance levels above the moving average line.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3812 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 110.64
• Prev Close: 111.00
• % chg. over the last day: +0.32%

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga indicated that the state of emergency in Japan, associated with COVID, would be lifted on Thursday. This is good news for better economic indicators and business activity in the coming months.

• Support levels: 110.95, 110.65, 110.40, 109.95, 109.63, 109.27
• Resistance levels: 111.49

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Against the background of the Japanese Yen weakness, the USD/JPY quotes continue to grow. But it is obvious that the price cannot reach the upper border of the uptrend channel, while the MACD indicator begins to signal divergence. All these are signs of the buyer’s weakness. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels after a small pullback. The price has deviated strongly from the moving average, and now there is a high probability of decline. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels but only after the sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.63, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2643
• Prev Close: 1.2627
• % chg. over the last day: -0.12%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. Both the dollar index and oil prices increased yesterday. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes are trading flat, with a slight advantage of strengthening Canadian currency.

• Support levels: 1.2565, 1.2518, 1.2425
• Resistance levels: 1.2635, 1.2701, 1.2774, 1.2891

From the technical point of view, the trend has changed to bearish. The price fell below the moving average and broke through down the priority change level. The MACD indicator is negative, but there are signs of a reversal in the form of divergence. These are signs of the seller’s weakness. Under such market conditions, it is better to buy only after the price returns above the 1.2635 resistance level. It is better to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2774 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.