The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.09.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1738
• Prev Close: 1.1720
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

According to the IFO Munich Economic Institute, which estimated business sentiment in Germany, the German industry is in recession. It is noted that many companies that took part in the IFO survey stated that not only their current business situation but also their perspectives are worsening. Meanwhile, companies that operate in the tourism and hotel business, as well as in the construction business, noted the improvement of the situation.

• Support levels: 1.1704, 1.1620
• Resistance levels: 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From the technical point of view, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading near the priority change level. The MACD indicator shows a divergence. Under such market conditions, buy deals can be considered from the priority change level. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average or after the breakdown of priority change level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1704 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 14:45 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Evans’s Speech at 15:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Brainard’s Speech at 19:15 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3718
• Prev Close: 1.3666
• % chg. over the last day: -0.38%

One-third of BP’s gas stations are out of fuel. Car queues near gas stations have been observed for the third consecutive day. The shortage of drivers is causing problems transporting fuel from refineries to gas stations. Some operators were forced to limit deliveries and others even closed gas stations.

• Support levels: 1.3629, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3685, 1.3769, 1.3812, 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average line. Buy deals should be considered only intraday and only with short targets from the support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3812 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

• – UK BoE Gov Andrew Bailey’s Speech at 21:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 110.25
• Prev Close: 110.74
• % chg. over the last day: +0.44%

Last week, the Japanese government announced that more than half of the population is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, with vaccination rates finally catching up with the US, UK, and other major countries. As for supply chain disruptions, new measures are needed to solve the problem of the lack of key products such as semiconductors and auto parts. And while the prime ministerial candidates plan to compile a package of measures to stimulate the economy, the Japanese yen is losing its positions against the dollar index.

• Support levels: 110.40, 109.95, 109.63, 109.27
• Resistance levels: 110.65, 110.95, 111.49

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bullish. Against the background of the Japanese Yen weakness, the USD/JPY quotes sharply rushed up. The MACD indicator has become positive. There are signs of overbuying but no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels after a small pullback, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving average. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels but only after the sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.63, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2654
• Prev Close: 1.2646
• % chg. over the last day: -0.06%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index traded in a range on Friday, while oil prices continued to rise. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes are declining against the background of the strengthening Canadian dollar.

• Support levels: 1.2583, 1.2518, 1.2425
• Resistance levels: 1.2646, 1.2726, 1.2812, 1.2891, 1.2951

From the technical point of view, the trend has changed to bearish. The price fell below the moving average and broke through down the priority change level. The MACD indicator is negative, but there are signs of a reversal in the form of divergence. That means that a breakout of the priority change level might be false. Under such market conditions, it is better to buy only after the price returns above the level of priority change level, with a bullish initiative. It is best to look for sell trades from resistance levels near the moving average.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2646 support level and fixes above again, the uptrend will likely resume.