The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.09.07

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1876
• Prev Close: 1.1869
• % chg. over the last day: -0.06%

Rail traffic in Germany has been limited for the fifth day because of a protest by train drivers: Deutsche Bahn was able to provide only 30% of its long-distance and 40% of its regional trains on Monday. This is the third protest this year, and the parties can’t find a compromise. Also, today the ZEW Institute will publish an index of economic sentiment in Europe.

• Support levels: 1.1854, 1.1816, 1.1799, 1.1759, 1.1704, 1.1620
• Resistance levels: 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From a technical point of view, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is bullish. The price broke through the priority change level and consolidated above. The MACD indicator is still signaling a divergence in the opposite direction. The price has deviated from the moving average; given the divergence, there is an increasing probability of a corrective downward movement. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance levels, where sellers show initiative. Buy trades can be considered only after a pullback to the support levels near the moving average.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1704 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

• – Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3854
• Prev Close: 1.3834
• % chg. over the last day: -0.14%

In the UK there is a decline in car sales and a slowdown in construction. Labor shortages and interruptions in the supply chain, especially semiconductor products, are the main cause of the decline. The labor crisis could last up to two years, a leading British business lobby group warned, urging ministers to take action on visas for foreign workers.

• Support levels: 1.3793, 1.3741, 1.3692, 1.3632, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bullish. The price broke through the priority change level on the impulsive movement and consolidated higher. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and there are the first signs of divergence on higher time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels. Sell positions can only be considered throughout the day with short targets from the resistance levels, where sellers show initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3692 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.69
• Prev Close: 109.82
• % chg. over the last day: +0.11%

The USD/JPY currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index now. The dollar index slightly strengthened during the European session yesterday, which led to an increase in USD/JPY. Starting from December, Japan will start to issue digital certificates of vaccination against COVID-19. As of September 3, approximately 58% of the Japanese population had received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, while approximately 47.1% had already been fully vaccinated. But the Household Spending Report showed that spending decreased by 0.9% (the decrease has been observed for the third month in a row.)

• Support levels: 109.43, 109.19, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 109.88, 110.11, 110.34, 110.66, 110.95, 111.48

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Now the price is trading in a wide corridor, but there are signs of sellers’ pressure. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, traders should look for buy trades from the support level, where buyers show initiative. Sell positions should be considered only on the lower time frames from the positions where sellers show initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.43, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2518
• Prev Close: 1.2528
• % chg. over the last day: +0.08%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. Yesterday, the USD index strengthened a bit, while oil prices decreased amid the negative news from Saudi Aramco. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair strengthened slightly during the European session yesterday.

• Support levels: 1.2518, 1.2425
• Resistance levels: 1.2583, 1.2656, 1.2713, 1.2812, 1.2891, 1.2951

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bearish. The price broke through the priority change level on the impulsive movement and consolidated below. It is better to consider sell positions from the resistance levels, where sellers show initiative. Buy positions can be considered from the support levels after additional confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2812 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.