The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.07.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1816
• Prev Close: 1.1842
• % chg. over the last day: +0.22%

Against the background of the news from the Fed, the dollar index fell sharply, which caused strong movements on currency pairs with the US dollar. The European currency, which moves inversely to the dollar index, sharply strengthened and increased by 0.22%, but, during the news release, there was a false movement down.

• Support levels: 1.1834, 1.1783, 1.1761, 1.1746, 1.1609
• Resistance levels: 1.1879, 1.1934, 1.1969

From the technical point of view, the general trend is still bearish, but the local trend is bullish, and the price is moving to the priority change level. Now the price is trading above the moving average, the MACD indicator is in the positive zone with no signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better for traders to consider intraday trading. Buy positions should be considered only from the support levels. Traders should look for sell deals at the resistance levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1879 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to be resumed.

• – Germany Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Germany Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3879
• Prev Close: 1.3899
• % chg. over the last day: +0.14%

Against the background of the fall of the dollar index, the British pound increased by another 0.14%. The food supply situation in Britain is getting better. Starting next week, England is opening its borders to vaccinated tourists from the EU and US without quarantine, which is a long-awaited stimulus for travel companies and airlines.

• Support levels: 1.3900, 1.3825, 1.3772, 1.3714, 1.3676 ,1.3641, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3947, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101

The trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish on the H1 timeframe. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone but with signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy positions after the price pulls back to the support level. There are no optimal points for sell positions right now. Traders can search for intraday sales from the resistance level with short targets, but they should understand that it will be trading against the main trend.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3714 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario is likely to resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.74
• Prev Close: 109.91
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15%

After a significant strengthening of the Japanese yen (fall in the USD/JPY quotes) on Tuesday, the USD/JPY currency pair increased by 0.15% yesterday. The price failed to break through the priority change level, where the buyers managed to defend their positions. But against the background of the dollar index decline, the probability of the breakdown of the 109.62 support level is quite high.

• Support levels: 109.62, 109.19, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 110.16, 110.41, 110.73, 111.06, 111.48, 110.73, 112.18

The main trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is upward, but the local trend is bearish, so traders should look for sell positions from the resistance levels. Buy positions should be searched only on intraday timeframes and with short targets because the pressure of buyers is clearly stronger now.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.70, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2601
• Prev Close: 1.2521
• % chg. over the last day: -0.64%

The inflation rate in Canada slowed down, reaching 3.1% (the previous value was 3.6%) in June in annual terms. Excluding gasoline prices, the annual inflation rate is 2.2%. Considering this news and a slight increase in oil prices, the Canadian dollar has strengthened significantly against the US dollar.

• Support levels: 1.2495, 1.2448, 1.2404, 1.2347, 1.2312
• Resistance levels: 1.2531, 1.2602, 1.2671, 1.2787, 1,2951

The price has broken through the priority change level. The medium-term trend has changed to a downtrend. The MACD indicator has gone into the negative zone with no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it is best for the trader to look for sell positions from the resistance levels. There is no optimal entry point for buy positions now.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2671 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.