by JustForex
The fall of the dollar index led to an increase in the EUR/USD quotes. Moreover, the quotes were falling during the European session, but at the American session, the price sharply increased. The Federal Reserve will make a statement about its future monetary policy plans today. There are no interest rate changes planned, but there are concerns about the possible start of cutting the quantitative easing program. Investors should be extremely cautious as volatility will be high.
From the technical point of view, the general trend is still bearish, but the local trend is bullish. Now the price is trading above the moving average within a wide price range of 1.1761-1.1834. The negative situation with the European currency remains unchanged, but the probability of a decline in the dollar index is also high. Under such market conditions, it is better for traders to consider intraday trading. Buy positions should be considered only from the support levels. Traders should look for sell deals at the resistance levels.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1879 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to be resumed.
Against the background of the dollar index decline, the British pound increased by 0.43% and managed to break through the priority change level. The breakthrough occurred during the impulse movement with consolidation above, which indicates a change in the medium-term trend.
The trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed to bullish on the H1 timeframe. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone but with signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy positions after the price pulls back to the support level. There are no optimal points for sell positions right now. Traders can search for intraday sales from the resistance level with short targets, but they should understand that it will be trading against the main trend.
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Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3714 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario is likely to resume.
Yesterday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that inflation targeting 2% has resulted in a situation where Japan is no longer experiencing deflation, and that indicates the success of the current monetary policy. The BoJ also intends to help companies and regional banks combat climate change and start using green technologies.
Against the background of the fall of the dollar index, as well as positive news from the governor of the Bank of Japan, the Japanese yen significantly strengthened yesterday. The price reached the priority change level and is close to breaking the upward trend. But the buyers managed to defend their positions at the support level of 109.64. The local trend is bearish, so traders should look for sell positions from the resistance levels. It is not recommended to buy, but traders should do it only on intraday timeframes from the priority change level and only with short targets.
Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.70, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.
The Canadian dollar is still trading in a narrow price range but aims to the breakthrough upwards. A lot will depend on where oil goes during today’s Crude Oil Reserves news release. If oil starts to rise, the USD/CAD will fall and vice versa. Today, the release of the inflation data may affect the situation.
Technically, the trend remains bullish. But the price is trading right at the priority change level. The MACD indicator is inactive. Traders are better to play it safe and take action only after the price moves to one side of the narrow price range.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2561 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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