by JustForex
At the end of last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said it wouldn’t be the right time to cut the stimulus. The ECB program will be changed after March 2022. Considering the central bank has kept the inflation target unchanged at 2%, the fundamental picture plays in favor of the European currency.
The trend is still bearish. The price is still below the change priority level. But the buying pressure is increasing. Now the price has already broken through 2 resistance levels and is trading above the moving average. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone with slight divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to trade intraday. For sell positions, traders should wait for a pullback to the priority change level and see the reaction of sellers showing that they are ready to defend the level. Entries for long positions can be searched on support levels.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1889 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to be resumed.
On Friday, the UK reported GDP for the quarter. The data was negative as GDP growth was only 0.8% instead of the forecasted 1.5%. The reasons for the slowdown are a general shortage of chips, a decrease in auto production, a decrease in the construction sector, and continuing strict restrictions across the country. However, despite the slowdown, UK GDP increased for the fourth month in a row.
The GBP/USD trend is bearish on the H1 timeframe. But the buyer’s pressure is growing rapidly. The price is moving to the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone with no signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to trade intraday. For sell positions, traders should wait for a pullback to the priority change level and see the reaction of sellers showing that they are ready to defend the level. Entries for long positions can be searched on support levels.
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Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3922 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario is likely to be canceled.
The Japanese yen futures corrected slightly due to a slight increase in US government bond yields (inverse correlation). The general fundamental picture is in favor of a decrease in the USD/JPY currency pair now. A lot will depend on the rhetoric of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate at the end of this week.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the H1 timeframe is downward. After the sharp drop in quotes on Thursday, the price slightly corrected on Friday. The MACD indicator returned to the zero line. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell positions from the resistance levels within the day. There are no optimal entry points for long positions now.
Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 111.05, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.
Canada’s economy has almost completely recovered the jobs lost during the third wave of the pandemic. According to Statistics Canada, the economy added 230,700 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, from 8.2% in May. This is the lowest rate since March 2020. The positive labor market data led the Canadian dollar futures to grow and the USD/CAD (inverse correlation) to fall on Friday.
Technically, the trend remains bullish. The price is still trading above the moving average and above the priority change level. The MACD indicator went into the negative zone. Under such market conditions, it is best to trade on the lower timeframes. Buyers may look for trades from the support levels within the day. There are no optimal entry points to open sell positions now.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2370 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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