The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.05.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2128
• Prev Close: 1.2148
• % chg. over the last day: +0.16%

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD price tried to break through the resistance level of 1.2176 again, but the sellers managed to defend their positions.

• Support levels: 1.2108, 1.2074, 1.2027, 1.2002, 1.1957, 1.1835
• Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.2176, 1.2212, 1.2243

The trend remains bullish, and the price is above the moving average. But the buyers failed to hold the support level of 1.2150. The divergence on the MACD indicator worked very well this time. As a result, the price went into a deeper local correction.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2074 support level and holds below, the general uptrend is likely to be broken.

• – European Commission Economic Forecasts (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Core CPI (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US 10-y Bond Auction (m/m) at 20:01 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.4114
• Prev Close: 1.4139
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17%

The GBP/USD currency pair is still in a strong uptrend, but now the price looks overbought. This is indicated by a strong deviation from the moving average and divergence on the MACD indicator.

• Support levels: 1.3996, 1.3913,1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3756, 1.3690
• Resistance levels: 1.4110, 1.4207

It is important for the buyers to hold the support level of 1.4110 in order not to let the price go into a deeper correction. A price fixation under 1.4110 will make room for the next support level of 1.3996.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3913 support level and holds below, the bullish scenario is likely to be canceled.

• – UK Gross Domestic Product (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 108.76
• Prev Close: 108.61
• % chg. over the last day: -0.13%

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY currency pair tried to break through the support level of 108.44, but the buyers defended their positions. As a result, a wide flat with a price range of 108.44-108.87 was formed. A price move above 109.01 would resume the mid-term upward momentum.

• Support levels: 108.44, 108.19,107.77, 107.47, 107.04
• Resistance levels: 108.87, 109.01, 109.40, 109.64, 109.95, 110.51

The price is still trading below the moving average.The MACD indicator is in the negative area with signs of a hidden divergence. Under such market conditions, it is possible to work in both directions, “long” from the support or “short” from the resistance levels. But if the dollar index continues to fall, the USD/JPY will form a mid-term downtrend.

Alternative scenario: if the price drops below 108.44, the general downtrend is likely to resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2100
• Prev Close: 1.2100
• % chg. over the last day: 0%

The situation in the USD/CAD currency pair did not change much. Deceleration of the price movement downward switched into a narrow flat. The price is facing a very strong support level.

• Support levels: 1.2075
• Resistance levels: 1.2137, 1.2251, 1.2321, 1.2388, 1.2414, 1.2519, 1.2618

The trend remains bearish for USD/CAD. But the MACD indicator is already signaling about 2 divergences (mid-term and local). It is too early to look for long positions, as the initiative from the buyers is too weak. Also, it is too late to open short deals, as the support level is ahead. Traders should wait or trade intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2321 resistance level and holds above, a local corrective uptrend is likely to form.