The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.05.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2115
• Prev Close: 1.2019
• % chg. over the last day: -0.79%

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair fell by 0.79%, dropping almost 100 pips. This primarily was due to the released negative statistics on German GDP and Europe, where the strict lockdown scenario continues.

• Support levels: 1.1994, 1.1957
• Resistance levels: 1.2108, 1.2049, 1.2145, 1.2176, 1.2212, 1.2243

The price broke down the critical support level of 1.2088, activating the alternative scenario. The 1.2049 support level and the main uptrend line were also broken down by impulsive candles, as a result, the price held under the moving average. MACD went into the negative area. The best strategy for EUR/USD would be to look for short positions from resistance levels within the local downtrend.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks up through the 1.2108 level and holds above, with a high probability, the general uptrend will continue.

• – German Final Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);;
• – Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 21:20 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3936
• Prev Close: 1.3809
• % chg. over the last day: -1.2%

The British currency fell more than 1% on Friday. The price moved below the moving average, and the MACD went deep below 0. In addition, the price easily passed three support levels at once. All these are signs of strong bearish pressure.

• Support levels: 1.3794, 1.3756, 1.3690
• Resistance levels: 1.3835, 1.3864, 1.3913, 1.3996, 1.4149

The price has consolidated below 1.3864, so it is best to focus on opening sell trades. But the entry price is not optimal right now, traders need to wait for a minor pullback to the resistance levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks up through the 1.3864 resistance level and holds above, with a high probability, the bullish scenario will become active again.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 108.91
• Prev Close: 109.33
• % chg. over the last day: +0.38%

On Friday, the currency pair USD/JPY reached the resistance level of 109.36 and stopped in front of it. At the market opening on Monday, the price broke through this level and went upwards. The MACD indicator keeps signaling a divergence, which suggests that the buyers are getting weaker. But as long as the price is above the moving average and the uptrend line, it is not recommended to open short positions.

• Support levels: 109.36, 109.04, 108.87, 108.44, 108.19,107.77, 107.47, 107.04
• Resistance levels: 109.95, 110.51

The price has deviated strongly from the moving average, which acts like a magnet. Therefore, the most likely price will make a small pullback in the next few days.

Alternative scenario: if the price drops below 108.44, with a high probability, the general downtrend will continue.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2281
• Prev Close: 1.2289
• % chg. over the last day: +0.06%

The USD/CAD currency pair traded in a narrow range all Friday and failed to break down through the 1.2280 support level. In addition, there is a divergence on the MACD indicator, and a bullish impulse appeared on intraday timeframes. All these are signs of the possible start of the local correction upwards.

• Support levels: 1.2280, 1.2165
• Resistance levels: 1.2321, 1.2388, 1.2414, 1.2519, 1.2618

For USD/CAD, the trend is strictly downward, so it is reasonable to look for sell trades from the resistance levels or a local downtrend line. The entry price for opening short positions is not the best now, so it is better to wait for the rebound or look for intraday purchases within the intraday uptrend.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2414 resistance level and holds above, with a high probability, a local corrective uptrend will be formed.

• – Canada’s Gross Domestic Product at 15:30 (GMT+3).